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Old 08-20-2014, 04:32 PM
  #166441  
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Originally Posted by EdGrimley View Post
A 2014 outlook might be a better benchmark to draw from...

Investment Flies High With Delta Airlines - Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSEAL) | Seeking Alpha

Delta has one of the lowest fuel prices in the industry. Owning a refinery and hedging should bring $350 million in fuel-cost saving for 2014.

The present macro environment is a high-flying time for the aviation industry. World passenger load factor (percentage of seats filled with passengers) is at historic high. In this climate, Delta Airlines (NYSEAL) has posted super-strong result better than the industry.

Savings coming from cost management and a stronger top line have granted Delta with free cash flow of more than $1.5 billion.

Going forward, Delta predicts that its operating margin will grow to about 15-17% in the third quarter on continued gains from its cost reduction measures and market growth.
Ed, that all sounds great! But for us laymen out here, do you know what the consensus is for expected profit for third quarter 2014? Thx

Denny
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Old 08-20-2014, 04:33 PM
  #166442  
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Originally Posted by scambo1 View Post
You're a dick.
No, you're a dick.
Takes one to know one.
Douche.

You guys are sounding like 10 year olds.


Kidding aside, I will always side with those looking for ways we can achieve more, including restoration rather than those justifying mediocrity as a way of doing business.
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Old 08-20-2014, 04:39 PM
  #166443  
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Originally Posted by scambo1 View Post
You're a dick.
No, you're a dick.
Takes one to know one.
Douche.

You guys are sounding like 10 year olds.
Shack! Nailed it Scambo.

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Old 08-20-2014, 04:40 PM
  #166444  
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Originally Posted by Denny Crane View Post
Ed, that all sounds great! But for us laymen out here, do you know what the consensus is for expected profit for third quarter 2014? Thx

Denny
I do not. Anybody else want to chime in here?
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Old 08-20-2014, 05:11 PM
  #166445  
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Spiderman comes to Atlanta:

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Old 08-20-2014, 05:11 PM
  #166446  
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More information about Lee Seham, from a source other than DALPA. Enjoy.


Fellow Pilots:

Rumors and tall tales abound on the topic of Lee Seham's relationship with USAPA. Much has been written but, as usual, please take note of the authors of these grandiose yarns and you may find some insight into the motives behind these stories. But here's what has actually happened. To start with, it is worth noting that the current Officers inherited the relationship with Mr. Seham - Seham was chosen precertification.

During the summer of 2010, we recognized that Lee Seham represented a single point of failure for our union. His firm is composed of himself as the sole attorney capable of litigating and a group of journeymen in support. If something, anything, happened to Seham then USAPA would be in trouble because there is no heir apparent inside his firm. And so we sought out to find another competent RLA firm, not to replace Seham, but one with which we could create and test a business relationship in order to eliminate the single point of failure. Competent, powerful labor firms are difficult to come by but after searching for months, we had narrowed that field to Brian O'Dwyer's firm when the Pension Investigation Committee (PIC) needed counsel to potentially investigate State Street Bank (SSB). The PIC attorney was conflicted with SSB, and O'Dwyer was the perfect fit with his extensive pension litigation experience and deep bench.

And so in the spring of 2011, the Board approved the creation of a business relationship with O'Dwyer and we started assigning work to this firm to test their work product. At that time, I personally called Seham and told him the reasons that O'Dwyer had been hired. I assured him that he was not being replaced. There is, after all and unfortunately, plenty of legal work at USAPA to go around.

Now I frankly would have been more than happy to leave well enough alone at this point and to not have to go into the following detail; there just isn't any value for us in telling every detail of the occasional unpleasant business relationship. But the truth of this issue has now been clouded by those who are experts in smearing anyone in their way - they are the dying emblems of old ALPA. So here we are; time for a little truth tellin'.

For a very long time we had been warned about problems with Seham by many others including the Teamsters (their opinions of Seham are not printable), SWAPA (the Southwest pilots' union, who terminated their relationship with Seham just this year for "incompetence and billing irregularities"), APA (the Allied Pilots Association, who fired Seham for a variety of issues including pro-management business relationships), to numerous respected individual labor and RLA attorneys who are aware of Seham's poor reputation among labor advocates.These concerns were relayed to us over time and we took each of them into consideration along the way by doing our best to investigate them and assigning some level of veracity to each of the claims. Each of these concerns with Seham were addressed openly and proactively with him in an attempt to correct problem areas and to stay on track. The efforts to resolve them internally were not successful.

One of the repeated concerns from others is that Seham has a record of becoming vindictive when his business relationships end. Through the late spring, despite my assurances to him to the contrary, Seham became convinced that he was being replaced. This was not ever the plan. The plan was only to eliminate the single point of failure for our organization. At this point, Mr. Seham started engaging in the political process inappropriately. There is never a time when counsel should be politically engaged within the union, but this in fact happened on two occasions where Seham participated in secret telephone calls with certain Board members, plotting for the overthrow of Officers who he believed stood in the path of his USAPA revenue stream. (These calls are acknowledged by those who participated.) This behavior is not only outrageous; it breaches his fiduciary obligation to USAPA as counsel.

The politics continued when Seham began informing line pilots that he wasn't consulted about USAPA's status quo filing in the Eastern District of New York (EDNY) and that the filing would fail and be harmful to our other litigations. This was most remarkable because Mr. Seham was in full favor and support of the EDNY filing - right up until the time that he wasn't the one filing the case. The EDNY case was filed because we believe the Company has been violating the law by frustrating the grievance, arbitration and negotiating process to their economic advantage. When the Company violates the law, I believe that the pilots want us to fight back with the tools available regardless of how much of an uphill battle it is to show up in court in America as a labor union. And that is what we did - we made a tough decision to defend the pilots' rights with the EDNY filing.

Finally, concerns over Mr. Seham's billing practices were coming to light. Although, by his own admission, we had substantially reduced our use of his firm during the late spring and summer, Seham's bills were actually increasing.At this point we became aware of the overbilling problems the Southwest pilots had encountered with Seham. Scrutiny of the bills produced more questions than answers and we sought professional advice to protect the organization. Many firms specializing in auditing legal bills were contacted and interviewed. Preliminary reviews by auditors told us that theSeham bills were "un-auditable", "some of the most uninformative invoices ever seen", and "a significant deviation from the standard bills law firms submit". This preliminary indication that there may have been irregularities in Seham's billing practices with USAPA is a situation that the Board has a responsibility to look into. And so, faced with these allegations, I recommended that the Board authorize an audit of all of our legal bills, which is under way. Unfortunately, after eight weeks of asking the Seham firm for the information necessary to audit the bills, not a single shred of the requested information has been forthcoming. Zero.

Interestingly, instead of cooperating with USAPA and simply providing the requested documentation, Seham has retained counsel which specializes in defending attorneys against ethics charges and disbarment proceedings. I for one find it interesting that he feels the need for this when he has simply been asked to provide substantiation for his billing to us. USAPA has an absolute right to the information we are requesting. The audit will proceed, with or without Mr. Seham's cooperation. Each of our other law firms has indicated they will cooperate fully.

We have found that Mr. Seham has presided over his own demise at many labor unions, and he certainly isn't helping himself here at USAPA. I would be happier if this all were not so, but our obligations to maintain competent, ethical and effective counsel will not be hindered.

I am happy to report that attorneys Brian O'Dwyer and Pat Szymanski are offering us many opportunities that were not previously available. Most recently, the Board approved the reassignment of the Phoenix Declaratory Judgment case to Szymanski and O'Dwyer. Aside from the fact that we cannot be represented by a firm that presents basic trust issues, O'Dwyer is a seasoned labor attorney with political clout that was simply unavailable before. Szymanski is a very experienced RLA attorney who served as general counsel to the Teamsters and Mr. Hoffa for seven years. Their approach is decidedly different from the high confrontation that marked Seham's interaction with everyone, from the judges to his attorney counterparts on the other side. Being advocates for your position doesn't require foment and hostility with those on the other side. A fresh approach to our legal strategy will produce healthier results.

I know that there are additional questions that have been raised. If you want more information, one accurate place to get more information is the recent CLT update that you can read by clicking here. In addition, we have assembled a short series of Q&As on this topic that you can read by clicking here.

None of these decisions were made lightly. All were made after due deliberation and after a full review of the facts. This organization will be managed methodically and dispassionately with only your best interests in mind. I am extremely confident that we are in a position to move forward with more competent legal counsel than we had before. We are well aware that all of this may not be very interesting to many pilots and we will be communicating to you on the critical topics of the status of our contract and seniority dispute in the next few days.

Sincerely,

Captain Michael Cleary
President, US Airline Pilots Association
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Old 08-20-2014, 05:19 PM
  #166447  
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Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp View Post
I'll give the 346's less than a 1% chance of happening.

I'll give 330NEOs a 99+% chance of happening.
This!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 08-20-2014, 05:24 PM
  #166448  
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Kidding aside, I will always side with those looking for ways we can achieve more, including restoration rather than those justifying mediocrity as a way of doing business.
This^^^^^^^^^muy bueno!
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Old 08-20-2014, 05:33 PM
  #166449  
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Originally Posted by Mesabah View Post
Perhaps as a scope exchange since Alaska is already doing that flying.
I'll take my chances with the AS situation any day over giving the scrubs 100-160 seaters. Ain't gonna happen. Let them choke on their order book and we'll swoop in and buy them at a nice discount.
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Old 08-20-2014, 06:41 PM
  #166450  
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Originally Posted by TheManager View Post
That is not how USAPA sees it

This is not just about the list or the Nic.

It is also about capturing the attrition. They unfortunately, through their delay and legal spamming tactics, have won that battle.

As they have steadily retired senior pilots off the east list, they have replaced all those retirements with east pilots moving up into their vacated positions. Lots of movement, even hiring at the bottom.

Not so out west.

Not as simple as you try and make it Alfa.
What the East has created is a temporary fence. Right now it is working in their favor, you are correct. The problem with fences is that they all end. For instance, in the Northwest/Republic (Red Book/Green Book) merger, they had fences that lasted 18 years. When the fences were ready to expire, the Red Book team tried desperately to extend them. They had already negotiated LIFETIME reinstatement rights so that anyone displaced from the whales (red book) would have priority over other pilots (green book) for eternity. They also filed a last ditch arbitration to extend the fence that was rejected out of hand.

When the DAL/NWA merger occurred, the lifetime reinstatement rights fell by the wayside and when the 744 staffing was expanded and the 747 freighters were displaced, the green book guys moved into the whale in large numbers. In the top 1/3 of the whale captains there are only 12 red book guys remaining. In fact, if you trace the militancy of Carl back in time, you can find how unhinged he got right around the time the green book guys took over the top half of the whale captain category list.

The same effect happened to a lesser degree at UAL/CAL. After the merger, it took three years for the SLI to finish up. During that time, UAL management was replacing 757's with 737 NG's. (sound familiar) Only the UAL side 757's were leaving the fleet and the CAL side got the 737 NG's. Remember when everyone was talking about 2005 hires at CAL getting 757 bids? Well that is what caused it.

After the SLI the virtual fence came down and now the vast majority of Captain bids (around 80+%) are going to former UAL pilots. Those CAL guys who got those bids early will now either bid off or be stuck at the bottom of the list for years.

So the East pilots have this temporary fence that is working in their favor now. Under their old contract, an upgrade from A-330 FO to A-320 Captain would yield a pay increase of about $15,000 per year. If that same pilot had stayed as an A-330 FO and obtained the Delta contract his raise would have been about $55,000 per year. In fact, he would have been making more than his A-3300 Captain under the LCC contract. Maybe that fourth stripe is worth it.

The bottom line is that all fences expire. These short term gains for the East pilots came at a cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost wages. When the final list with AMR is done whatever advantage these guys have will melt away.

So I understand that sometimes upgrades to higher paying positions are like crack; people covet this for so long it clouds their vision of the future. Real gains are made through the contract. The East pilots would have retained most of their attrition with the Nicolau award. Even their own analysis shows the MAXIMUM delay in upgrade to Captain was two years with the Nicolau award vs. standalone. Simply getting a Delta contract would have given instant upgrade economics to their entire list. Even much more than that. Now they have to be happy with a handful of guys upgrading every month. Again, that bonus will run out soon.

So you are right it is more complicated. The bottom line is that they lost a bunch of money they will never get back. Whatever short term advantage they have is soon to be lost. Those lost years will never be won back.
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