CVG767A

I'm certainly no expert in this, but it seems that JAL doesn't need to give that flying to anyone. If they don't fly it, someone else will. If we're putting their code on our flights, we'll be ending up with their pax. This will allow for not only upgauging, but also the possibility of adding routes that were not previously viable. End result: more jobs for us.

At the very least, yields are bound to improve as a result of capacity removal across the Pacific.

CVG767A

I don't think the company has been too impressed with the durability and longevity of the CRJ. I'm wondering if those concerns have been adequately addressed with the C-series.

Superpilot92

I received mine a week ago, just call delta dental and have them send you a set.

forgot to bid

I'm rooting for that too! Bar, stay on your plane.

I saw where they're waiting to hear from Bombardier on if they're doing the 150 seat C-series. Seems like there is a bottleneck with the other 3 manufacturers waiting to see what Bombardier goes with a 150 seat frame and freezes the design soon. See this weeks Aviation Week. Boeing is looking at better 737 engines again, Airbus doing the same for an upgraded A320 (I think thats the fastest, cheapest and easiest winner in a 4-way race as the frame is fine) and Embraer is probably got a 150 seater on their computers in waiting.

acl65pilot

True. There are some other issues too. FtB addressed on a few posts above this.

In response to the JFK deal. You are 100% correct. We get their pax, do some of their routes etc and it does mean jobs and better paying jobs for us. The revenue flow of premium passengers is what these JV's are about.

acl65pilot

Agreed, and I bet Bombardier will do it if DAL signs on for it.

Engine upgrades may be good enough to have us buy more 320's and 73N's to bridge the gap. I like that idea.

shiznit

WRT the 88/90 in MSP, just wanted to point out that AA operates their 80 series from ORD to SAN, so it isn't necessary to operate the 90 to hit the west coast, and I know XJT operated the E-145 from EWR to MSP no problem, so I'm not so sure what the "need" for the 90 in MSP is. The 88 would serve just about everything you could need out of MSP, the 90 just does it a little more efficiently (and with IFE.....when it works!)

The longest 88 flight I've been on was ATL-PHX and that is 1584 miles.
MSP-SAN is 1530
MSP-MIA is 1502
MSP-BOS is 1121
MSP-SEA is 1395.

I know the 90 carries 10 more people and has MUCH more efficient engines, but it really isn't a DC9 replacement, but rather a M88/737/320 replacement.

It allows the M88/E75 to fly old DC9 routes, and the 737/320 to expand into new/more economical options. (or so I think I would do if I were in charge.)

The 90 is a lot of airplane capability for a stupid cheap price, glad DL is going that way.

acl65pilot

True, but they also want it in MSP for the range. Their words not mine.
I also bet that the 320 will be the 90/757/73N replacement in SLC. We are putting airplanes where they make the most sense.

Sink r8

I'd echo what ACL/Alfaromeo are saying, and add that I have too little info to take informed guesses. As far as uninformed guesses...

1) I can't see interest in adding capacity and killing yields at NRT. The focus at NRT is probably maintaining slots, so I would guess the average size of A/C to NRT goes down a little.

2) I can certainly envision fierce competition at HND, even at the expense of yields. Both alliances will want to capture market share. I would think the size of aircraft to HND will go up.

3) I'm seeing conflicting reports on whether a DAL stake in JAL might be discussed in the near future, or not. Assuming there is no stake, I would imagine there won't be incentive to atually relinquish permanent ownership over HND slots: JAL would keep them. Right now they're in slash-and-burn mode. Once the pain is done, I think they'll want to re-capture and retain. IOW, I'm not sure what's being negotiated, but I would wager we'll be invited to bring pax to HND, and JAL will take them beyond JAL, to the more lucrative business leasure markets.

4) Taking 1 and 2 together, along with the comments about large JAL jets going away by 2015, my guess would be a modest increase of flying overall, with DAL big jets going to HND, smaller DAL aircraft going to NRT. Business markets in Asia might be served via HND on JAL, and leasure markets might be served via NRT on DAL, or a mix of JAL/DAL. I would guess our intra-Asia stuff gets rationalized somewhat, offset (or better) by HND flying.

5) Let's not forget than the purpose of the alliance would be to make money and the vehicle for that is to reduce supply. I don't imagine that the net amount of capacity afterwards will be as much once the deal is done. What will differ will be how much is routed through HND, and what players are sharing that flying. 40% of AMR's pax connect on JAL, so that's something can syphon off. AMR will adapt by fielding full 787's, or 767's, instead of emptier 777's. The next question becomes how we distribute flying between DAL and JAL. I honestly have no idea what we're agreeing to there. We may be the low-cost producer now, but let's not forget they're just about to go in bankruptcy. Then yen isn't going to be sky-high forever, and maybe the balance of power will shift.

6) There is a reason this is labelled a rare opportunity for us, and a reason Bastian probably dreams in Japanese. That greatest opportunity is about to close, as the bankruptcy is entered. We're not a single white knight, but more like a pig at a crowded through. We normally wouldn't be allowed in at all, except for the predicament JAL is in. Plans are surely very far along on making sure JAL will re-emerge as a powerhouse, and people are setting up to make sure they get the best pieces. In a moment, I think we'll be negotiating with them for our place. Which leads me to believe we may get discounted access, but it sure won't be free.

7) Putting all the above together, I would envision a modest uptick in our flying, a little shifting in NRT to smaller-gauge, which would continue to leasure markets, an uptick in large-gauge flying (to HND, where JAL would do much of the regional flying to business markets).

Again, this is all pure speculation on my part.

I do have one question about GUM. I can't understand whether this would be a defensive piece if we failed to access HND, or a positive piece to complement JAL. Why would we want an operation there?

hoserpilot

Maybe it has to do with single engine performance and drift down from Denver westward. The 88 just doesn't have the mojo that the 90 has. Thats what I was told from a line check guy.