Agreed satch. UAV's are claiming great military pilots as well.

 

I agree that the ATP will not fully solve the problem.... however untill we have a selection, screening, and training process for the airlines that is on par with the military, we need as many things as possible to weed out the less than desireable candidates.

 

Well - that is the problem in the last few years. There was some strong growth at the regionals, so airlines kept lowering minimums to attract pilots - until they couldn't go any lower (Commercial certificate minimums). Places like Colgan or Mesa don't raise the pay - they lower the standards.

Hopefully having the ATP as a requirement will set a minimum standard and do what you suggest. Also - it would reduce the attractiveness of quickie schools.

 

On LGA:
Remember they kept ppl on the 88 in ATL, added in CVG and did
not surplus as many on the 320 in MSP. That is where the Lion's Share of the LGA expansion was to be flown from.

I do not see DAL or LCC accepting this deal and because of it they will have to adjust their staffing. Come on GUM base!

 

Guys they already are stating that some programs will be exempt.

 

Of course - probably any 141 training program I imagine.

 

I suspect that Delta would grudgingly accept this deal and divest the 16 slots. My guess is that USAirways is the one who's really going to scuttle it and frankly, I can't blame them since they're losing 33% of what they originally bargained for. Unfortunately, it takes two to tango and we are likely to put up a united front with LCC to try and strong arm a better deal. Thank goodness this industry was 'Deregulated' 30 years ago.

With that said, a loss of this deal represents a lot of flying that's not going to happen. I don't think it means the 'F' word as the summer will be busy enough, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some large displacements on the next bid. Unfortunately, the continued loss of DC9s and the loss of this NYC flying means a lot of extra bodies on narrowbody aircraft and I don't know where those people go.

 

the -9's are being replaced with Md-90s so thats not a loss of required positions but would require a trip to training. Also the increase in narrowbody flying wasnt just to cover LGA flying it was also to cover replacing regional lift and increased demand.

 

Not to be a downer, but I agree. Most of the rumors about growth and quick upgrades have come from guys with very little time in the game. While it is refreshing to have wide eyed optimist amongst our ranks, they have not been around along enough to see many of the SURE DEAL rumors go bye bye. Can't speak for the RD side, but the NWA side since 95 have been told "5 year upgrades, 20 -400 freighters, 10 more 330s, etc. all from guys "in the know(3rd floor Natco types)). I am positive alot of the info on here has been passed along from mediocre (I think Dal calls them 4th floor vs. 3rd floor Natco) 4th floor positions. Whether they are in the know or a low level person who knows. But some guys from both sides (RD's and Nwa guys) have taken these rumors and gone into full speculation mode(both good and bad) full boar. For all of us, especially the junior guys, I hope that some of the good things do pan out, otherwise I see tough time ahead.

 

That's IF they go forward with this displacement.

There was talk of an international expansion (& other airlines are announcing capacity increases) which we are already staffed for. With the displacement we were going to be understaffed to deliver what marketing wanted. In effect, by canceling part of the displacement bid we are staffed for 07-08 flying levels, which is close to what was needed by marketing THIS year if they added a little capacity back to international.

The 88 and 737 were understaffed and a couple of 737's are coming with around 16 MD90's which will help take up the reduction in DC9 block hours.

Status quo would be a smart move. There is a rumor of a politically motivated mailing of "warn letters" to show the good Senators are costing jobs, but frankly I doubt the Senators care AND Delta would come across as being a bit of an insolent child if they used empty threats as leverage.

I'm still thinking some will get extended vacations this winter, but that has to do with modeling that evens out the ebb and flow of windfalls. Windfalls are rare in this business and even more endangered amongst Legacy carriers. A Virgin America type might have a good run, but that's a real risk.

For now, just maintain course. Sometimes on course is the best plan of action, even with storms of the port and starboard.