Hummmmm lets see.........

They are cutting flying but the traffic is up. Which will it be:

An order for everyone to move to a base?

Positive space passes to get to work?

Doesn't effect me, I mostly commute off line. Just thinking of some consequences that the smartest guys in the room haven't thought of.....yet.

 

With the stock going back up a little, where is everyone think is a good point to sell?

I was dumb not to get out at $14.........I'm thinking if it gets back to $10 I'm out, but $9?

Ferd

 

I understand the angst. It has to do with the ESK limits in the JV. That whole 1 380 equates to 3 767's thingie.....

The way the JV is worded we get killed on the pilot block time on the down side. Just killed. On the upside, which we have not seen in full swing, we should grow 2/3's as fast as the AF block hrs.

The other part of this falls under unintended consequences. They are paid more, a lot more, not take home pay, but total cost per pilot to the company, and it behooves them to have less of their pilots fly more of the big metal. Add in the fact that AF gets the benefit of the import-export bank, and our future is not in the biggest wide bodies but in jets of 330 size and lower. Currently this is the case within the AF JV, but if we are not careful we will see the same results in Asia.

Suffice to say, I want DALPA to have to approve all JV's, alliances, CPA's and code share agreements.

 

We are having another good day today. ACL keeps calling $18.

 

Ferd;

Here's my POV on DAL stock...my advice is worth what you paid for it...and you have to ask yourself: am I short term or long term.

Long term, hold, may get to 17-18 or even higher. Long term being 2-4 years. There is IMO significant opportunity cost associated with waiting for this to happen.

Short term 12-12.50 my estimate is by april of 2012. That price may be too far away for you to put in an auto sell order right now...which would be good for someone who doesnt monitor the market daily...but its worth a try.

IMO bad idea to plan to sell at 9. Its worth more than that and will rapidly blow thru that level once we are out of the speculatively volatile mkt we are in right now. There is lots of money to be made in a market like we are in right now.

 

Yeah I know, and why I didn't jump out at $14 last year. I just keep telling myself that we got them at what, $4ish

 

All of the October A bids are out.

 

My free market analysis agrees with yours. DYODD.

18 in two to three years mid 20's in less than five.

I have bought a ton of the stock, and for me it is a long term hold. I do have a sell order in though just for insurance.

 

Thanks Scambo,

Good points. I was thinking about $10 but I think you're right about $12.50ish. Hadn't thought about the auto sell order, I need to look at the website closer. But no, I think I've got other places to put the money (beer and bad coffee) vs holding out for $18 again.

 

Ferd, you are a young man. Dot worry about that 30K in stock you were given. Just let it sit and stew.