Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
12-05-2011, 08:17 AM
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
Yup. $29.6 billion in liabilites mean nothing. 
Look folks, let me try to make this simple since we have so many people here trying desperately to "prove" their thesis. Nobody goes into bankruptcy because they have a revenue problem. NOBODY. There is no mechanism in bankruptcy court to fix a revenue problem. The ONLY reason bankruptcy court exists is to give you a certain time frame of protection FROM YOUR CREDITORS! By definition, what is a creditor? Answer, somebody that holds your DEBT obligation.
Let's take this a step further. You run a company that has zero debt but doesn't produce the revenue that your competitors do. What would a bankruptcy judge say to you upon entering court? He would say: Since you have no debt, there's nothing we can do for you. Maybe you should go to business school to learn how to produce revenue better.
I don't know how I can make this any simpler. I know this doesn't fit the template created here by alfaromeo and acl65pilot, but the facts are that AMR is in bankruptcy court. They are seeking protection from the creditors to which they have $29.6 billion in debt obligations. They are NOT seeking lessons on how to produce more revenue.
Carl
Look folks, let me try to make this simple since we have so many people here trying desperately to "prove" their thesis. Nobody goes into bankruptcy because they have a revenue problem. NOBODY. There is no mechanism in bankruptcy court to fix a revenue problem. The ONLY reason bankruptcy court exists is to give you a certain time frame of protection FROM YOUR CREDITORS! By definition, what is a creditor? Answer, somebody that holds your DEBT obligation.
Let's take this a step further. You run a company that has zero debt but doesn't produce the revenue that your competitors do. What would a bankruptcy judge say to you upon entering court? He would say: Since you have no debt, there's nothing we can do for you. Maybe you should go to business school to learn how to produce revenue better.
I don't know how I can make this any simpler. I know this doesn't fit the template created here by alfaromeo and acl65pilot, but the facts are that AMR is in bankruptcy court. They are seeking protection from the creditors to which they have $29.6 billion in debt obligations. They are NOT seeking lessons on how to produce more revenue.
Carl
They do mean something imo. They mean that at some point the creditors and going to decide that AMR's revenue gneration plan going forward sucks, and they will look outside of AMR to increase their odds of issuing lines of credit. That is why I suspect that we will see fragmentation attempts from LCC maybe DAL, UCAL and they may be sustained by their creditors demands for more than just cents on the dollar but a business plan that secures the remaining debt going forward. To me that is what ALFA is getting at. They have a revenue problem and if the creditors are smart they will force them to deal with it, or force them to see assets to those who can.
AMR's saving grace is that it is a Presidential election year. More job loss sucks during this point in the cycle.
12-05-2011, 08:19 AM
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
Originally Posted by NuGuy
To say that AMR has a bad network is madness. They have a dream sheet domestic hub structure. Each hub they have is a top six O&D city. Their South America route structure has done nothing but make gobs of cash since Juan Tripp first laid them out 80 years ago. It's a cash register...all you have to do is ring the bell.
Maybe what Alfa is saying is hope is lost and we should just concede to being the regional boys to the JVs, flying to 50 cities while we get squeezed from the top, middle and bottom, because it's the only way the people who are currently on the list will avoid living in refrigerator boxes.
We're not playing to win...heck we're not even playing "not to lose". It seems like we've settled into a strategy of "controlled attrition", where it's apparently OK that planes and pilots are not replaced.
Nu
Maybe what Alfa is saying is hope is lost and we should just concede to being the regional boys to the JVs, flying to 50 cities while we get squeezed from the top, middle and bottom, because it's the only way the people who are currently on the list will avoid living in refrigerator boxes.
We're not playing to win...heck we're not even playing "not to lose". It seems like we've settled into a strategy of "controlled attrition", where it's apparently OK that planes and pilots are not replaced.
Nu
12-05-2011, 08:26 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 581
ALFA, (ACL and Carl too),
What Carl says pretty much parallels the analysis done by the Boyd Group. Here's a link:http://www.aviationplanning.com/Imag...%20Reality.pdf
You may disagree with Boyd's conclusions, but Carl is not "out in left field", so to speak, with his comments as you asserted so aggressively.
My prediction is rather than admit Carl was on to something you will follow the DALPA tactic of trying to discredit the messenger (Boyd).
What Carl says pretty much parallels the analysis done by the Boyd Group. Here's a link:http://www.aviationplanning.com/Imag...%20Reality.pdf
You may disagree with Boyd's conclusions, but Carl is not "out in left field", so to speak, with his comments as you asserted so aggressively.
My prediction is rather than admit Carl was on to something you will follow the DALPA tactic of trying to discredit the messenger (Boyd).
12-05-2011, 08:32 AM
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
Bankrupt AMR: Cut Flights, Possible Merger
DALLAS TheStreet) -- The bankruptcy of American Airlines and parent AMR(AMR_) could mean fewer flights and fewer seats for passengers, even on some prestigious routes, as well as a turning point for airline investors. Competitors' shares rose, with the three remaining legacy carriers registering double-digit gains last week.
More on AMR
Passengers in a variety of markets could be impacted.
Passengers are likely to lose routes with an American Airlines bankruptcy, but Delta, JetBlue, US Airways and United are already seeing stock gains.
American's principal hubs in Dallas, Miami and Chicago should escape the bulk of the capacity trimming, and American may also be hesitant to reduce flying between the U.S. and the U.K., Ticonderoga analyst James Higgins says. But flight cuts should be steeper in markets outside the three major hubs, he says, and various analyst agree they see impending cuts in Los Angeles and New York -- which despite being keys to American's cornerstone strategy are not places where it dominates.
In May, in a controversial report, Avondale Partners airline analyst Bob McAdoo wrote that American loses $1 billion annually by flying too much in losing markets.
"More important than its costs are AMR's capacity decisions, its market selection and its unwillingness to halt or reduce flying in markets that are losers," McAdoo said. Those losers, he said, include many of the carrier's highest-visibility, most prestigious routes: New York to London; New York to California; Chicago to Delhi, Beijing and Shanghai; and Miami to Buenos Aires. The 10 worst markets lose $450 million a year, he said.
Similarly, American operates 10 daily flights in the New York-Los Angeles market, losing $70 million annually, and five daily flights in the New York-San Francisco market, losing $54 million annually, McAdoo wrote.
In its first week in bankruptcy, American has signaled modest capacity cuts via interviews with executives and in its filing, which shows 24 planes already retired to desert storage facilities and more aircraft lease rejections coming.
In a report issued Monday morning, Higgin wrote "We expect all U.S. airlines to benefit from AMR's surprise Chapter 11 filing, largely because we believe AMR will meaningfully reduce capacity," probably in the 10% to 15% range.
DALLAS TheStreet) -- The bankruptcy of American Airlines and parent AMR(AMR_) could mean fewer flights and fewer seats for passengers, even on some prestigious routes, as well as a turning point for airline investors. Competitors' shares rose, with the three remaining legacy carriers registering double-digit gains last week.
More on AMR
Passengers in a variety of markets could be impacted.
Passengers are likely to lose routes with an American Airlines bankruptcy, but Delta, JetBlue, US Airways and United are already seeing stock gains.
American's principal hubs in Dallas, Miami and Chicago should escape the bulk of the capacity trimming, and American may also be hesitant to reduce flying between the U.S. and the U.K., Ticonderoga analyst James Higgins says. But flight cuts should be steeper in markets outside the three major hubs, he says, and various analyst agree they see impending cuts in Los Angeles and New York -- which despite being keys to American's cornerstone strategy are not places where it dominates.
In May, in a controversial report, Avondale Partners airline analyst Bob McAdoo wrote that American loses $1 billion annually by flying too much in losing markets.
"More important than its costs are AMR's capacity decisions, its market selection and its unwillingness to halt or reduce flying in markets that are losers," McAdoo said. Those losers, he said, include many of the carrier's highest-visibility, most prestigious routes: New York to London; New York to California; Chicago to Delhi, Beijing and Shanghai; and Miami to Buenos Aires. The 10 worst markets lose $450 million a year, he said.
Similarly, American operates 10 daily flights in the New York-Los Angeles market, losing $70 million annually, and five daily flights in the New York-San Francisco market, losing $54 million annually, McAdoo wrote.
In its first week in bankruptcy, American has signaled modest capacity cuts via interviews with executives and in its filing, which shows 24 planes already retired to desert storage facilities and more aircraft lease rejections coming.
In a report issued Monday morning, Higgin wrote "We expect all U.S. airlines to benefit from AMR's surprise Chapter 11 filing, largely because we believe AMR will meaningfully reduce capacity," probably in the 10% to 15% range.
12-05-2011, 08:52 AM
veut gagner à la loterie
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
If someone doesn't hurry up and make all this joint venture stuff with American into a football analogy real soon I'm going to start posting pictures of dudes...
its the only threat I know that is legit around here.
its the only threat I know that is legit around here.
12-05-2011, 08:58 AM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
Originally Posted by forgot to bid
If someone doesn't hurry up and make all this joint venture stuff with American into a football analogy real soon I'm going to start posting pictures of dudes...
its the only threat I know that is legit around here.
its the only threat I know that is legit around here.
12-05-2011, 09:02 AM
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
Originally Posted by Jughead
I like chocolate.
Originally Posted by tsquare
Me too!
Originally Posted by georgetg
I 'flutter my wings' when I eat chocolate
Cheers
George
Cheers
George
Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp
I dunno. This makes my wings flutter more then chocolate! Look at the head on that beer!
I know. I know. Most don't even notice there is a beer in that picture.
12-05-2011, 09:23 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,716
Originally Posted by Wasatch Phantom
ALFA, (ACL and Carl too),
What Carl says pretty much parallels the analysis done by the Boyd Group. Here's a link:http://www.aviationplanning.com/Imag...%20Reality.pdf
You may disagree with Boyd's conclusions, but Carl is not "out in left field", so to speak, with his comments as you asserted so aggressively.
My prediction is rather than admit Carl was on to something you will follow the DALPA tactic of trying to discredit the messenger (Boyd).
What Carl says pretty much parallels the analysis done by the Boyd Group. Here's a link:http://www.aviationplanning.com/Imag...%20Reality.pdf
You may disagree with Boyd's conclusions, but Carl is not "out in left field", so to speak, with his comments as you asserted so aggressively.
My prediction is rather than admit Carl was on to something you will follow the DALPA tactic of trying to discredit the messenger (Boyd).
12-05-2011, 09:25 AM
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Posts: 56
Originally Posted by johnso29
Latest target I saw was this week. FWIW, I have my scheduled training now showing in icrew.
Where do you find that? I can't seem to load anything past my Jan schedule.
12-05-2011, 09:33 AM
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
Originally Posted by Wasatch Phantom
ALFA, (ACL and Carl too),
What Carl says pretty much parallels the analysis done by the Boyd Group. Here's a link:http://www.aviationplanning.com/Imag...%20Reality.pdf
You may disagree with Boyd's conclusions, but Carl is not "out in left field", so to speak, with his comments as you asserted so aggressively.
My prediction is rather than admit Carl was on to something you will follow the DALPA tactic of trying to discredit the messenger (Boyd).
What Carl says pretty much parallels the analysis done by the Boyd Group. Here's a link:http://www.aviationplanning.com/Imag...%20Reality.pdf
You may disagree with Boyd's conclusions, but Carl is not "out in left field", so to speak, with his comments as you asserted so aggressively.
My prediction is rather than admit Carl was on to something you will follow the DALPA tactic of trying to discredit the messenger (Boyd).
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