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Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?


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Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?

Old 04-20-2012 | 03:20 PM
  #96421  
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Part 2



American Airlines-US Airways Merger: Questions and Answers



1. Why has APA chosen to pursue a merger with US Airways?



Your APA leadership has repeatedly emphasized our commitment to pursuing the best available alternatives for the pilots we represent throughout the restructuring process. After extensive review by our legal and financial advisers and subject-matter experts, we’re confident that a merger between American Airlines and US Airways would be the best possible course of action for both our profession and for the future of our airline. This post-merger business plan directly addresses American Airlines’ two most significant shortcomings: 1) a diminishing network and 2) a serious revenue disparity relative to the competition.



Management’s “Cornerstone” stand-alone plan fails to address a potentially fatal flaw — a billion dollar-plus revenue gap combined with a shrinking network. Management’s restructuring strategy is mainly predicated on driving labor costs below the lowest common denominator. In a rare show of unanimity, the airline analyst community has universally dismissed management’s plan to add capacity in the current economic environment. Almost without exception, analysts agree that a US Airways merger would be the best way to repair American Airlines’ network and revenue disparities.



In exchange for supporting this presently contemplated merger with US Airways, APA has a negotiated framework in place for a contract that would be based on our Green Book, as opposed to a terminated contract followed by an imposed 1113.



2. What are the advantages of a merger between American Airlines and US Airways?



During the past decade, AMR management has pursued a strategy of “shrinking to profitability.” As a consequence, American Airlines is now a distant third in terms of domestic network and global reach when compared with Delta and United. Through increased marketplace presence, these two network-carrier competitors enjoy a revenue premium relative to American Airlines obtained by “poaching” high-yield business travelers with a superior product and network. This in turn has rendered the oneworld Alliance less competitive when compared with Sky Team and the Star Alliance. No amount of concessions by labor can solve this revenue and network disparity. Trying to remedy those problems solely through the labor cost reductions and organic growth that AMR management has proposed would be difficult at best.



Among other specific challenges, American Airlines is disadvantaged by a diminished East Coast domestic presence, with no hubs there that have the same scale and dominance as MIA or DFW. In addition, AA lacks small and medium-size market presence in the region to feed smaller bases such as BOS, DCA and LGA/JFK. In this slot-restricted, congested environment, we have few options available to us aside from partnering with US Airways, which has a formidable East Coast network.



3. Why not a tie-up with Delta, JetBlue or someone else?



There would be significant regulatory and antitrust obstacles to a merger with Delta, which currently overlaps American Airlines in 69 markets. Of those 69 markets, 28 would be reduced to a single carrier in the event of an American-Delta merger, with 38 anchored to New York. Consequently, an American-Delta tie-up would require significant carve-outs to pass muster with the Department of Transportation and Department of Justice. There would also be significant European Union concerns regarding an American Airlines defection from oneworld or a Delta departure from Skyteam. Assuming those regulatory hurdles were successfully addressed, there is no guarantee that the smaller American Airlines bases that overlap with Delta’s network would remain in operation. Delta management has made it clear that they covet Miami and whatever South American routes and JFK slots they can obtain in an acquisition. The end result would potentially be thousands of American Airlines pilots on the street with no recall rights.



A merger with JetBlue would not address American Airlines’ core problem in East Coast markets outside of JFK. JetBlue is primarily focused on the leisure market in the Caribbean and Florida, rather than on business travelers. Its two non-contiguous JFK terminals make connections to American Airlines extremely difficult, while JFK is not the favored airport for NYC customers. In many respects, JFK is considered to be “geographically challenged’ in the local New York market, especially when compared to LaGuardia and Newark, which offer far more connectivity.



4. Just what does US Airways bring to the table that would help American Airlines?



An American Airlines-US Airways merger would create a comprehensive network that could compete with both Delta and United.



US Airways and American Airlines currently overlap in 13 domestic markets, primarily hub to hub—no international overlap. Both carriers’ networks are generally complementary and together are a force multiplier on the East Coast. American Airlines currently serves 33 cities in that region, compared with 65 for Delta, 54 for United and 68 for US Airways. According to our industry experts, American Airlines would vault from the region’s fourth-largest carrier to first by merging with US Airways, with the US Airways Shuttle making up a valuable component. The New York-Boston and New York-Washington, D.C. markets feature some of the country’s highest-yield traffic. US Airways has 50 percent of the shuttle seats in those two markets and captures 40 percent of the corporate business. The synergies of the two combined carriers are estimated to exceed $1.5 billion annually.


A merger would also likely catapult American Airlines into the No. 1 position in the Central-Midwest region, and would likewise improve American Airlines’ position in the West by flowing more traffic into a strengthened LAX hub.



By serving significantly more domestic markets, American Airlines would be better able to attract more corporate clients and elite travelers, who provide the bulk of airline revenue. Also, current oneworld Alliance members would likely welcome the ability to tap into the bigger domestic network that an American Airlines-US Airways merger would create. That same expanded network could also serve to attract new members to the oneworld Alliance.



5. Why can’t American Airlines go it alone in accordance with AMR management’s plan?



That plan suggests organic growth, but without exception, industry analysts are skeptical. What the plan doesn’t adequately address is American Airlines’ underlying revenue weakness, loss of corporate market share, and a diminished presence on both coasts. During the past decade, American Airlines remained on the sidelines operationally while the world passed us by. The comprehensive networks that have been created by a combined UAL-CAL and DAL-NWA have put our airline at a structural disadvantage that cannot be remedied with the “Cornerstone” stand-alone plan. A variety of analysts have described management’s plan as “more of the same.” Please keep in mind that in three of those five “Cornerstone” markets, American Airlines is not the dominant carrier.



Management’s stand-alone plan is premised on hopeful projections and assumptions, and does not account for volatile fuel prices and the ability of competitors with deep pockets and stronger networks to respond. Analysts universally agree that AA’s plans to grow in an uncertain economy in already saturated markets will erode the entire industry’s ability to rationally price its product, make a profit, generate free cash flow and provide for a positive return on invested capital.



We should also keep in mind that the primary tenets of management’s plan include below-market labor costs, “doubling down” on American Eagle by buying hundreds of new small narrowbody jets, and outsourcing more American Airlines flying through unrestricted additional domestic codeshare partnerships.



6. Hasn’t US Airways been the “poster child” of industry dysfunction since merging with America West?



Like most other mergers, the US Airways-America West tie-up has experienced significant integration issues. The biggest obstacle still remaining is a single pilot seniority list, which would enable US Airways to enjoy the full benefit of the synergies that mergers produce. Dissatisfied with the arbitrator’s decision on integration of the two seniority lists, the US Airways pilots decided to litigate the issue and are now awaiting a decision from the U.S. District Court in Phoenix. For now, the two pilot groups work under separate contracts.



The pilot seniority issue aside, US Airways has become an efficient, profitable carrier that is near industry-leading in operational performance. In 2010, the airline ranked first among the big five network carriers in the annual Airline Quality Rating (AQR) report, which benchmarks airline reliability and service. In the just released 2011 AQR report, US Airways ranked No. 2 when compared to network carrier competitors. US Airways management is primarily comprised of the former America West team. They’re lean and entrepreneurial in nature. US Airways is a proven survivor that has found a way to adapt and thrive in a very difficult competitive environment, in marked contrast to what has transpired at American Airlines under the current management team.



7. How would my seniority be affected by a combination of American Airlines and US Airways?



Airline industry seniority integrations are now governed by the McCaskill-Bond Amendment, which became law in 2007. McCaskill-Bond requires a “fair and equitable” integration of seniority lists and includes a provision for a negotiated settlement between the parties. If the integration cannot be settled within 20 days, either party may refer the dispute to a neutral arbitrator, who must render a decision within 90 days. (In practice, the parties generally agree to extend the time limits as necessary.)



8. Would we be forced to work under the US Airways pilot contract?



No. APA has negotiated a Conditional Labor Agreement (CLA) that is outlined in the new term sheet with US Airways management.



9. Would a merger result in pilot furloughs?



Under the terms of APA’s CLA with US Airways management, there would be 100 percent furlough protection for our pilots.



10. In the event of an American Airlines-US Airways merger, what would the new airline be called and where would it be headquartered?



US Airways’ senior management has indicated that they plan for the combined entity to do business under American Airlines’ operating certificate and to be branded American Airlines, with the headquarters in Fort Worth, Texas.



11. How would American Airlines’ aircraft order be affected by a merger with US Airways?



US Airways management has committed to maintain all aircraft deliveries that were negotiated between American Airlines and both Boeing and Airbus.



12. Where do the TWU and APFA stand on the subject of a merger with US Airways?



Both TWU and APFA have negotiated and signed new term sheets with US Airways management that would also become the basis for new collective bargaining agreements in the event of a merger.



13. Would AMR management be replaced by US Airways management?



There would likely be significant changes in the ranks of middle and upper management at American Airlines, but exactly what those changes would consist of is impossible to predict.



14. How will this proposed merger affect the 1113 process and the upcoming court hearing?



We can expect the 1113 process to continue unless both the Unsecured Creditors’ Committee (UCC) and the bankruptcy court choose to end AMR management’s exclusivity period. Currently, AMR management has the exclusive right to present a plan of reorganization. If a majority of the nine members of the UCC petition the court for that exclusivity period to be waived, then AMR management would need to make their case to the court concerning why they should retain exclusivity. Ultimately, the judge will decide whether to terminate AMR management’s exclusivity period.



15. Would it be better to wait until American Airlines emerges from restructuring before even considering a merger with another carrier?



In the view of your APA leadership, the question of a merger with US Airways is not “if,” but “when.” We’re clearly better off proceeding with a merger while in restructuring as opposed to after the bankruptcy process is complete. Our concerns would be the same whether a merger was completed after bankruptcy or prior. However, the ability to provide the highest level of benefit to the pilots is dramatically different under those two scenarios. A merger with US Airways that followed our exit from bankruptcy (or any other carrier for that matter) would be entirely on AMR management’s terms and would not require APA’s consent. We would barely constitute a speed bump in that post-bankruptcy scenario. However, a merger consummated in bankruptcy provides us with the opportunity to craft a collective bargaining agreement that is industry competitive rather than the product of a unilaterally imposed Section 1113(c) term sheet that takes APA to the bottom of the industry.



In short, we have more control over our destiny if a merger is conducted while the airline is in restructuring. Conversely, just the opposite would be true in a merger scenario after bankruptcy. We would basically be along for the ride with AMR management in the driver’s seat—not an appealing scenario.



As you may have seen, AMR Chairman Tom Horton has publicly stated that he would consider a merger after American Airlines exits bankruptcy. There is a logical explanation for his position.. If history is any guide, management would own a large share of the company upon exit from bankruptcy. By way of example, Glen Tilton and his management group emerged from bankruptcy with a 15 percent ownership of United Airlines. We can therefore expect that AMR management would reward themselves handsomely when the company has completed restructuring. There is an enormous financial incentive for senior management to resist merging while in bankruptcy, as their control over the corporation would be jeopardized by an agreement with US Airways, threatening their ability to “cash in” following American Airlines’ emergence from Chapter 11. Clearly we can expect significant opposition to what your APA leadership believes to be the best course of action for our collective futures.
Old 04-20-2012 | 03:22 PM
  #96422  
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Originally Posted by gloopy
War Tide!!!!!

or is it Roll Eagle?

Now that's funny, I don't care who you are.

I have twin daughters at AU.

Next time I go to visit, I'm using that!
Old 04-20-2012 | 03:37 PM
  #96423  
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interesting to read the APA talk about McCaskill-Bond.

"Airline industry seniority integrations are for some strange reason that we can't put our finger on are now governed by the McCaskill-Bond Amendment, which became law in... 2007. McCaskill-Bond requires a “fair and equitable” integration of seniority lists and includes thank goodness a provision for a negotiated settlement between the parties so we don't get screwed like those TWA guys!"

Last edited by forgot to bid; 04-20-2012 at 03:56 PM.
Old 04-20-2012 | 04:15 PM
  #96424  
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"...Under the terms of APA’s CLA with US Airways management, there would be 100 percent furlough protection for our pilots..."

So, what could possibly go wrong?
Old 04-20-2012 | 04:36 PM
  #96425  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
interesting to read the APA talk about McCaskill-Bond.

"Airline industry seniority integrations are for some strange reason that we can't put our finger on are now governed by the McCaskill-Bond Amendment, which became law in... 2007. McCaskill-Bond requires a “fair and equitable” integration of seniority lists and includes thank goodness a provision for a negotiated settlement between the parties so we don't get screwed like those TWA guys!"
While many think an APA/USAPA tie up would be a huge cluster, I think it would be far better for AA and USAir than either's present trajectory. USAPA would be swiftly and easily done away with and the new SLI would be quickly implimented and the combined airline would get on with things. APA facing Ch 11 or worse and USAPA pits deep in an unwinnable quagmire, an AA/USAir tie up may be the best and maybe even only way out for both.

If they can fight off the scope grab 88 seater fantasy it would be a huge win for them and everyone else. I'd call management's bluff on that too by the way. There is no way they will scuttle a deal of this magnititude that they would otherwise do over 88 seaters going to the cut throats or not. The amount of savings is just inconsequential compared to the big picture. For pilot jobs and the common type pressures of 130+ seaters such a bone headed, myopic stratedgy would eventually result in, I'd go all in and risk 1113 or even Ch 7 over something management doesn't have the stones to do if it came down to it over that issue.
Old 04-20-2012 | 04:49 PM
  #96426  
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Hey guys,

Quick question....what are the times that the PBS runs slips and swaps. I think I used to know but forgot.

Thanks!
Old 04-20-2012 | 04:51 PM
  #96427  
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Originally Posted by buzzpat
Hey guys,

Quick question....what are the times that the PBS runs slips and swaps. I think I used to know but forgot.

Thanks!
May PCS Begins: 0700E - April 20th, then runs 0700E, 1200E, 1700E and 2200E daily.
Old 04-20-2012 | 04:54 PM
  #96428  
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Friday night...

Old 04-20-2012 | 05:15 PM
  #96429  
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I'm sorry, but wasn't this thread about Delta at one time?
Old 04-20-2012 | 05:15 PM
  #96430  
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Manager,

A stock buy back takes outstanding shares off the market. On one hand it makes the remaining shares more valuable but on the other hand it reduces the number of shares required for a controlling stake.

ALK is doing a stock buy back and they split there shares about six weeks ago.

As for B6, not sure it would be worth DAL acquiring them. Too much slot divestiture to keep them under a majority threshold in NYC. There are other issues too. Time will tell of course.

If HAL gets any more HND slots DAL has to buy em.

As for the chess match on global alliances, there is sure to be some shifting that will occur.

I also suspect that even though this agreement between Parker and the AMR unions is public, USAPA was unaware, and there will be a little bit of disunity as a result. There is always opportunity in disunity. I suspect there will be a lot more to this story. If UAL or others start going after assets this could get interesting.

This year is going to be another interesting year.
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