Well, if they keep the 50-seaters around, the net size of DCI doesn't shrink, and we increase above our ratios without downside protection, it will prove to be a mistake, sure.

The whole premise for not trading a large number of 50-seaters for a much smaller number if 76-seaters (subject to seat remival in case if furlough) was that the 50-seaters were going away anyway, and the company wants to order 76-seaters badly enough to have us flying them. Let's see if one or both things happen before we log this as a win.

Why are they adding flights to Europe next year? They do want flexibility in case of things like a economic collapse in Europe, a war in the Ukraine, revolution in Egypt etc...

Keep in mind they don't have to park ALL the 50's to make this a win for us. They can keep up to 76 50 seaters long term and it's a wash in seats. Anything less and its a win. Not only that, but even if they do that, 50's are more expensive seats, require more pilots (that they're going to be pressed to keep finding) and are far worse operationally (constantly weight and balance restricted and an inferior product) so the effective break even number is likely north of 76. I think keeping RJ scope where it is currently is a better move.

Because we still live under C2012. If we pass this AIP into a TA, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the new Europe flying disappears.

Those events you mention affect all JV partners. So why are we always the ones to volunteer to take it in the shorts?

Black swans...black swans everywhere. Way to plant the fear seed. Classic Moak tactic.

Not as classic as ad hominem attacks.

Got something to refute his point about flights being added?

He wasn't saying those things are coming true, but now that you mention it... I just watched the presidential debate. The swans are blacker than normal, these days. I'll take downside insurance. That is to say I'll evaluate it carefully. I'm still not sure how the floor works, considering it's global, but seems to be triggered by the TAJV.

All of those events have already happened, so you're right, he wasn't saying those things are coming true. So I guess our JV partners must be immune to those kind of things happening in their back yard because they continue to fly more than 50% of the JV flying. Must be some awesome management at those airlines.

Not only that, but when we pull down longer direct flights and instead just shuttle pax to their hubs in shorter block hour flights, we only share the shorter block hours. That's like double dipping in reverse.

Has anyone answered whether we are above or below 650000 hrs now and by how much?

Doesn't seem like they're immune to me. I own a little AF/KLM stock, and they haven't done very well. I don't know whether we pulled back, or simply failed to grow into our targets, but everything I read about the Atlantic market says it's soft, so I think it was problematic to add much capacity.

Wat in Ukraine, economic collapse in Europe, revolution in Egypt... are all plays in which we might have seen but the first act. I wouldn't presume to predict the future on any of these points.