If we continue to hire 50-60 a month for the rest of the year and AA takes only 44, how close would we be to an overstaffed situation? That would be about 146 extra pilots than what we currently have.

An overstaffed situation will never happen again at this airline. The slow in flow may allow us to catch up a little bit, but we will never be in the same ballpark as being overstaffed. Too much growth and training issues.

If he's getting at us sending extra flows cuz of the slowdown in AA hiring...a couple years ago we flowed the minimum and at the same time were offering zero time lines. If we didn't flow extra then, I would be EXTREMELY surprised if we ever did. I'd of course love to be surprised on that front, but I just don't see it happening - it would be a massive philosophy change from management.

This is exactly how I feel. Who knows, maybe someday we will stop growing and they'll decide to actually send more than the minimum. I would absolutely love to be proven wrong, but it is hard to believe this company would do that right now. Literally nothing in their past behavior would point to it happening.

So what? Jan 2016 and a few months after that we had more than 40% of the airline on reserve, also had zero and part time lines, many reserves flew 0-10 hours/mo (I know because I was one of them), and you guys still metered the flow. Are you saying our staffing will look better than that in November and December?

If AA continues the trend of no hiring for a couple of months, followed by an extremely large class, I'd say they're purposely doing it to limit the flow. At that point I think you'd see hiring slow down at Envoy and attrition spike, as guys realize the flow is being manipulated and not worth counting on. Time will tell.

You're giving the powers that be wayyyyy to much credit.

Is he? Didn't they manipulate the 824 and send some of our guys in months where there wasn't any street hiring? I could be wrong on this

I'm not saying it's time to go all chicken little, but it's a situation to watch closely.