Flow is guaranteed. As long as AA keeps running classes, we send guys. But if you have a degree, have a good personality, and no skeletons in the closet, you'll more than likely be able to move on somewhere before the flow. The flow for someone hired today is projected at 8 years. It's only gonna get higher. Just look at it as an insurance policy.

 

Flow in 8 years??
I know it's marketing, but Envoy is "projecting" flow to AA in 6 years; with the mandatory retirements looming (all else being equal), I am hoping that the flow will accelerate even faster than that. The USAF can't fill cockpits, can't even get enough applications for the Thunderbirds, and can't even fill navigator classes. They are now producing enlisted UAV pilots. There is just not enough mil pilots to feed the airlines in the numbers required for the next 10 yrs. AA "must" retire nearly 11,000 pilots in the next 15 years. Things could change, but wow, the opportunities ahead of us are pretty amazing. From 2021-24, AA will have 3600 retire (900/yr); Envoy flows 25% each year, or 225 pilots. Over those 4 years, that is 900 envoy CAs out the door, not to mention those going elsewhere. Is my math right? Could flow (at that time) be about 4 years total?

 

As long as they keep metering the flow, times will continue to rise.

 

By rise, do you mean flow times get longer, or quicker?

 

Flow time will keep going down (getting quicker) and will drop as low as 5 years. Guys that got hired around April and May of last year hit it absolutely perfect. They will see about a 5 year flow, possibly slightly sooner. Then as you get to guys hired after that point in time, flow starts rising. Think about it, if you're hiring far many more guys a month than you flow, the flow time has nowhere to go but up (get longer). Without an increase in the amount of guys we send to AA each month, flow time will continue to increase.

And keep in mind, the language for new hires regarding flow is that Envoy will send the lesser of 25% of AA slots or 5 new hire slots (increase by one for every 125 pilots above the base of 480 on the list) multiplied by the number of months in the year. What all of that complicated language boils down to is that they will be sending 15-17 guys a month.

Right now, the particular group of guys that we are sending are going at a minimum rate of 25/month. After that group finishes (anyone hired after 10/2011) the flow rate drops to 15/month. We are currently hiring anywhere from 65-75 guys per month. The flow can't keep up with hiring that many people so mathematically the only outcome is for the flow time to keep increasing. It's currently 8 years and as long as we keep hiring big numbers and our flow rate doesn't increase, flow will be creeping in on the 9 year mark within a few months.

 

The guys flowing right now are at about 12 years seniority at Eagle/Envoy. That time should drop to about 5 years for guys that currently have about 1.5 years of Envoy seniority. Those guys are the ones who were lucky enough to time things just right. Anyone hired after them will have a longer duration at Envoy, with guys being hired today projected to take almost 8 years to flow. So long as they continue metering the flow to the minimum as is required per the flow agreement, you will see that time increase. The needs of AA do not increase the metered amount. The only real unknown factor is people leaving above you outside the flow.

 

Here are a few suggestions:
- Only think about coming here if you live in NY, DFW, ORD.(not sure about MIA).
- Commuting to reserve for Envoy is terrible. It's about as having to tell people you fly for MESA.
-Don't think about the flow. Just don't. Stop thinking about it.
-If you want the 175 CA then well I'm not sure you will be able to get it as a street hire type CA. You may get it but it's not a sure thing. But then again no one thought we would have 150 FOs bypass upgrades.

 

Thanks, all though that does curb the enthusiasm a wee bit. Although it would seem beneficial for AA to open the WO flow meter some if the Military can't feed the beast, and the other options are OTS guys who've been out of a jet for a decade.

 

AA will never have problems filling classes.

 

What do the reserve times in ORD look like? From finishing IOE to when FOs are getting lines.