Reserve
09-01-2017 | 09:55 AM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 854
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Flow in 8 years??
I know it's marketing, but Envoy is "projecting" flow to AA in 6 years; with the mandatory retirements looming (all else being equal), I am hoping that the flow will accelerate even faster than that. The USAF can't fill cockpits, can't even get enough applications for the Thunderbirds, and can't even fill navigator classes. They are now producing enlisted UAV pilots. There is just not enough mil pilots to feed the airlines in the numbers required for the next 10 yrs. AA "must" retire nearly 11,000 pilots in the next 15 years. Things could change, but wow, the opportunities ahead of us are pretty amazing. From 2021-24, AA will have 3600 retire (900/yr); Envoy flows 25% each year, or 225 pilots. Over those 4 years, that is 900 envoy CAs out the door, not to mention those going elsewhere. Is my math right? Could flow (at that time) be about 4 years total?
I know it's marketing, but Envoy is "projecting" flow to AA in 6 years; with the mandatory retirements looming (all else being equal), I am hoping that the flow will accelerate even faster than that. The USAF can't fill cockpits, can't even get enough applications for the Thunderbirds, and can't even fill navigator classes. They are now producing enlisted UAV pilots. There is just not enough mil pilots to feed the airlines in the numbers required for the next 10 yrs. AA "must" retire nearly 11,000 pilots in the next 15 years. Things could change, but wow, the opportunities ahead of us are pretty amazing. From 2021-24, AA will have 3600 retire (900/yr); Envoy flows 25% each year, or 225 pilots. Over those 4 years, that is 900 envoy CAs out the door, not to mention those going elsewhere. Is my math right? Could flow (at that time) be about 4 years total?
The specifics of the flow could someday change if it becomes unsustainable, but as it is currently written and enacted flow could not be 4 years for a new hire.
09-01-2017 | 10:11 AM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,609
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Reserve on average is as low as it practically can be. It will be at this level for the foreseeable future. When an airline is hiring at the pace Envoy is then it is going to be low. You will be on reserve for a short time. More senior reserve bases will have slightly longer times but not by much.
09-01-2017 | 02:17 PM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 113
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Talked to a 145 FO recently that finished IOE, spent the rest of that month on reserve (maybe 2 weeks), then had a line the next month. Not sure what the CRJ reserve is like, but I imagine it's similar.
09-01-2017 | 02:31 PM
#24
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Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 674
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I flew with a CRJ guy who got off IOE three weeks ago, and he has a line this month.
09-03-2017 | 10:47 AM
#25
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 17
Likes: 0
Here are a few suggestions:
- Only think about coming here if you live in NY, DFW, ORD.(not sure about MIA).
- Commuting to reserve for Envoy is terrible. It's about as having to tell people you fly for MESA.
-Don't think about the flow. Just don't. Stop thinking about it.
-If you want the 175 CA then well I'm not sure you will be able to get it as a street hire type CA. You may get it but it's not a sure thing. But then again no one thought we would have 150 FOs bypass upgrades.
- Only think about coming here if you live in NY, DFW, ORD.(not sure about MIA).
- Commuting to reserve for Envoy is terrible. It's about as having to tell people you fly for MESA.
-Don't think about the flow. Just don't. Stop thinking about it.
-If you want the 175 CA then well I'm not sure you will be able to get it as a street hire type CA. You may get it but it's not a sure thing. But then again no one thought we would have 150 FOs bypass upgrades.
09-03-2017 | 01:24 PM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,609
Likes: 0
Also, I'm not saying you won't flow or it won't work as advertised in 7-8 years. I'm just looking at the big picture and would be shocked if you couldn't get to a legacy before you flowed.
Also, you run the chance of Envoy kicking republic out of Miami in a couple years when Envoy grows significantly over the next couple years.
09-03-2017 | 01:47 PM
#27
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 55
Likes: 0
In any case, I still plan on sending them an app next year.
09-03-2017 | 05:28 PM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 184
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Do not base a career decision based on what an anonymous person posts on an online forum. Not a knock on any individual poster, but you have to take everything here with a grain of salt. No one knows the future and only you know your own personal situation.
09-03-2017 | 05:50 PM
#29
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 17
Likes: 0
I agree and I've been in the aviation industry long enough to believe everyone but verify everything. Coming from the 135 world I can tel when the writing is on the wall, but I can't read it till I get inside. I am looking forward to starting with Envoy this month. And in this current regional situation there are lots of options out there. Looking at upgrade times and the quick moving seniority numbers as my reason for picking the E over R
09-04-2017 | 04:37 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,609
Likes: 0
I agree and I've been in the aviation industry long enough to believe everyone but verify everything. Coming from the 135 world I can tel when the writing is on the wall, but I can't read it till I get inside. I am looking forward to starting with Envoy this month. And in this current regional situation there are lots of options out there. Looking at upgrade times and the quick moving seniority numbers as my reason for picking the E over R
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