Happens all the time. Its pointless posting anything.

Even so, if one person sees it before they delete it that would be a win. I can't imagine they are monitoring it 24/7.

Exactly. There’s a reason the only numeric value posted was flow length, because that’s really all Envoy has going for it these days — and even that is being exaggerated by 150%-200%. Anyone that truly educates themselves on the employment opportunities in today’s market isn’t going to come here; Envoy is currently only acquiring the people that would also fall for ‘big d’ pill ads.

The “great salary” line has me laughing. The average U.S. median income is $59,039. Think about it.

The following is based on 80 pilots per month being hired at AA. (80 total, not just flow) Historically there has been at least one month per year at AA with zero new hires, typically December, actual hiring numbers may vary but 80 is what both the union and the company think is an accurate number.

New hire seniority: 2400 As per most recent flow plan
Non flowing pilots: 200 As per most recent interactive list

According to the MEC newsblast on 12/7/18 we had a non flow attrition of 205 YTD or about 19 per month. We'll assume this rate remains consistent for the foreseeable future. Because pilots about to flow are significantly less likely to peruse employment outside of flow we'll assume those 19 per month come from the last flow group.

Protected pilots: 29/month -1 month per year for AA training backlog. -2 months for AA training to get through s80/190 retirement training bubble. About 200 pilots remaining in group

200/29 = 7 Months with flow + 3 months of non flow.
10 months * 19/month non attrition flow = 190 pilots

It will take another 10 months for the protected pilots to flow during which time we will lose a total of 390 pilots.

Unprotected pilots: 15/month -1 month for AA training backlog. There are 148 pilots in this group.

148/15= 10 months + 1 month of non flow
11months * 19/month non attrition flow = 209

It will take 11 months for the unprotected pilots to flow during which time we will lose a total of 357 pilots.

Summary for first 2 flow groups: It will be 21 months until the first pilot from the post agreement flow group starts. During this time we will lose about 750 pilots.

New Hires: The remaining pilots will flow at a rate of 5 per month + (Senority list-480)/125. Or about 20 per month.

New hire seniority (2400) - Non flowing pilots (200) - pilots in protected and unprotected flow groups (750) = 1450 pilots left to flow from last flow group.

19 Attrition per month + 18.3 average flow per month (20/month for 11 months out of the year due to AA not hiring in December) =37.3 pilots per month

1,450/37.3 per month = 39 months from start of last flow group + 21 months for first 2 flow groups = 60 months until flow.

So accounting for the various flow group rates, historical attrition, AA not hiring due to both s80/190 retirements and typically not running classes in December it should take about 5 years for a newhire to flow. Add in a year for hiring slowdowns, less attrition the predicted, and other shenanigans. 6 years to flow for a new hire isn't totally outside the realm of possibility. Of course 6 years is a lot longer than the 2-3 months it takes to polish your resume, take your suit to the cleaners, go to a few job fairs, and get yourself a new job half a decade before your peers who wait for flow.

This +1.

The only adjustment I would make is that you assume every non-flow pilot leaving is senior to you. The number of senior pilots leaving gets lower the more senior you are, but you already added a year in there.
I'd say 6-6.5 years is realistic. Time will tell.

Read posts from 2015/2016 when people said "5 years to flow hahahaa that will never happen"...

It takes 2-3 years at a regional to hit 1000TPIC, which often is considered "competitive" for the big boys. So difference isn't half a decade, but 2-3 years. This for the average CFI->regional career path. YMMV if you did 135 PIC or similar before getting in.

First off I agree that a 5-6 year flow is possible for a new hire but I don't think it is sustainable. I'd guess we end up somewhere around the 7ish mark give or take a few months. There will be wide ranging flow time for guys over the next two years. It will hit 5 years and MAY even dip below that. It will then spike up over the next year.

The crux of the 5-6 year flow rate is ATTRITION!!!! The average attrition maybe 19 per month but that doesn't impact your flow date at a 1:1 ratio. The more senior you are the less attrition impacts your flow. Your calculations doesn't seem to factor in this HUGE impact on flow.

Very much this.
We'll see how the attrition works when the list is updated next January, but for 2018 out of 200ish pilots of non-flow attrition something like 140ish were within the first 2-2.5 yrs of DOH
I remember using 10 a month as an average outside attrition for flow time calculations, and the 2018 data did not support that.

Almost all of our non-flow attrition comes from people in their first two years here, and even most of those are in their first year here. These are people with prior 121 or military that just need to get current to be competitive to the majors and people that can’t cut it or people that realize this life isn’t for them. The guys that need to stay here to build time to be competitive are waiting for flow. So, for MOST of a new recruit’s time here, non-flow attrition is almost irrelevant.

This exactly. Plus Dera believing that 1000 TPIC is competitive proves he is a company shill or out of touch.

So are you saying you need more, or less?