It's a baseline figure. Off the top of my head, United has said the average civilian new hire comes with something like 5-6000 TT and over 1000 121 PIC.

(Cue someone chiming in with tales of some 25 y/o FO they know who got on at UA/DL...)

Yes, that's exactly what I said. That's also why I had the "" there.
It takes 2-3 years to be marginally competitive (with the 1000TPIC). So you won't lose half a decade waiting for flow, you might lose a few years.

All of this is 100% speculation. We have two numbers, one says 5.5 years, one says 9 years. Both are wrong. Truth is somewhere in the middle.

These numbers a predicated on maitining 19 a month attrition in addition to the flow. What happens if there is no attrition. You be better off planning for no more than 10 attrition and you may be in the ballpark

10 a month puts it right at 6 years.

Correction, 19 a month attrition senior to ‘you’.

Which isn’t reasonable.

The union numbers are more realistic than the companies recruiting material.

It's also speculation to say 'truth is somewhere in the middle.' We won't know for the next 5.5-9 years or more. We won't know until it has happened (if it happens at all).

So knock yourself out and speculate all you want. The best thing to in the meantime is keep the applications up to date. I can think of 11 career airlines currently or periodically hiring.

Now that lots of the non WO have flow agreements with Frontier, which essentially stops FOs from those regionals applying outside the flow, doesn’t it seem likely attrition to Frontier and ULCCs will increase from within the Envoy ranks?

This is obviously a joke but I’m not sure which part you’re intending as a joke...

I thought speculation is appropriate in a thread solely based on speculation.
Agree 100% on the last bit.

I’m not an airline pilot, I just read the forums. It wasn’t a joke. GoJet and TSA were both losing several a month to Frontier so they made a flow and stipulated GJ and TSA Pilots couldn’t apply to Frontier outside the flow.