I second this. KodiakRS, I appreciate you breaking down the numbers like you did because I think that is one of the more accurate representations of how a 5-6 year flow could be feasible. However, as aforementioned by a few others, the distribution of those attriting from the top (non-flows) is much lower than those less than 2.5 years at the company. A 6 year flow is possible, but not probable.

I know people joke about us getting stapled to the AA seniority list or getting thrown AA seniority numbers, but after the protected pilots all leave, what guarantees do we really have that the flow agreement won't be amended to reduce flow #s or even canceled to keep Envoy staffed? That's why I'm keeping my apps updated at the LCCs + Big 6. As much as I'd like to work for American, I'm not waiting around on fickle promises. The real "tangible" benefit to flow is consistent movement in seniority, but I know I'm not planning to stick around until my # comes up.

I think the number of pilots that see Frontier as a career destination is a LOT smaller than the number of pilots that see American as a career destination. Yeah, Frontier is better than GoJet and TSA but they’re all still applying to the rest of LLCs and Legacies both from GoJet and TSA and from Frontier.

Good point. I made a simple spreadsheet to do the calculation.

click here for screenshot

Add 21 months to the flow time for the Protected/Unprotected pilots to flow. That number was calculated assuming non-flow attrition occurs outside of the Protected/Unprotected pilot group but senior to a current day newhire. This is probably somewhat realistic based on the fact that most non-flow attrition is from pilots who have gained enough experience to qualify for an OAL interview but are still far enough away from flow to wait. This leaves us with 3 flow situations:

19 Non-Flow attrition all senior to our new hire until flow: 50 months

19 Non-flow attrition until start of final flow group with an even reduction in senior attrition until flow date: 54+21=75 months

19 Non-flow attrition until start of final flow group with a gradual reduction in senior attrition to 0 over 2 years: 67+21= 88 months

So assuming no drastic changes in the industry flow for a new hire will be somewhere between 5 and 7 years. With hiring predicted to continue increasing across the industry as we get into the years of the highest mandatory retirements in early/mid 2020's there's a good chance that attrition will increase so I'd say 6 or so years is a good estimate. Having said that, we have a lot of pilots (mostly older RTP people with a full military retirement) who don't have the drive to move up like those of us in our first career and are content to sit here at Envoy despite our less than amazing pay. So who knows.

Of course, this is the airline industry and if you look at how things were at Eaglevoy 6 years ago you'll be reminded of just how much can change. Meger with another wholly owned, flow adjustment as part of contract negotiations, major pilot shortage at AA, economic downturn, fuel price spike, ect. could all drastically alter time to flow.

Attrition outside of flow and retirements for the vast majority of pilots after they arrive on property will be below them in seniority and ever decreasing until they flow. Those numbers should remain about the same. However, in my opinion, any attrition above said pilot will continue to decrease as flow times decrease. Using historical numbers for 12+ to 8 year pilots going to other airlines will not equal the number of 4 or 5 year pilots above you going to a major. They are less qualified and less likely to get a call, and also less likely to jump to an LCC which so little time left to flow. The company bases its projections on these historical numbers and that is enough justification for new hires who aren’t 100% in touch with the way seniority lists work or are not in touch with the hiring climate. How many people come here spouting off about you should be at the major of your choice in half the time of the flow, yet that has been said for the last decade and check airman with 12 years and clean records are not getting a call? A new hire should come here seeing a 9 year flow on a spreadsheet and being surprised when he or she flows at 7.5 years. If you come here expecting 5.5 - 6, you will have no one to blame but yourself, because the company will not be held accountable.

Career Website
 

Website says leading pay and fastest flow. Both blatant lies

For someone hired today, using the "union math", Envoy has the fastest flow. We have PDT beat by a few months.

Envoy’s “actual” flow is just under 8.5 years so not exactly. If the recruiters want to say that Envoy has the industry leading first year pay due to sign on bonuses, or industry leading flow for pilots hires in 2016 then that’s fine with me. Have at it. The problem is when they cut out all the asterisks and say “industry leading pay and flow,” then they are being misleading to the average new hire that doesn’t know that current flow is not industry leading, nor will their own flow if they started today. And after year one they will be getting close to the lowest pay in the industry.

I agree, but even saying "industry leading pay" is disingenuous given that every regional carrier has either a comparable bonus but with higher rates *or* same/similar rates but with a significantly larger bonus. Averaged out, we're trailing the majority of our competitors.

The pay discrepancy would would be slightly more tolerable if all three AAG wholly-owned carriers were paid equitably, but the discrepancy between PSA and ENY/PDT makes the pay issue asinine.

Maybe an announcement is coming and we will have industry leading pay and flow..........

lol I couldn't help myself, sorry.

So they are saying they can’t improve pay and working conditions because they need those 19 fighting hard to get out to other airlines to keep their mystery math flow working.