The Mesa pilots that I talked to said just that. They would try and tie any cancellation/delay back to anything that was weather or otherwise “uncontrollable”, even if it was was a distant and unrelated event.

 

I seriously doubt Envoy could cover the other 44(?) aircraft Mesa operates right now. Maybe half, we just don't have enough captains.

 

I imagine SkyWest would likely get some of that as well. Specifically the PHX stuff.

And I would think that there are more improvements in both pay and contract in the horizon for the wholly owneds. As the industry continues to consolidate pilots will remain a commodity. AA knows this and will do what they have to to attract them to the WOs.

 

One would think this to be the case, but there really hasn’t been any evidence of this. There has been some Eagle flying that has been consolidated. No more TSA and Wisconsin. The TSA 145s came back to Envoy, but I think they were passed over to PDT. There really has been minimal growth at Envoy in the past few years.

And the “pay raises” were mostly a shell game of moving bonuses to pay. Still a positive but Envoy still lags in pay and just as importantly, QOL improvements.

 

They can barley hire enough to keep up with attrition. 29 a month gone via flow and attrition to other airlines. Growth won’t be happening anytime soon without major increases in pay/QOL.

 

I really don't think pay/qol enhancements are on the horizon. I think we shot our wad with the last deal. Too many guys in the pipeline that believe they'll flow in 6 years.

 

2016 guys will flow in 4.8 to 5.5 year then it goes up to around 9 for a current new hire, but that’s using low attrition. The big question is going to be how many CAs are hired off the street to AA or other majors. Looking at hiring needs between now and 2023 that could be as many, or more than flow each year. A person senior to you taking a job has the same effect on the flow.

The big question for pilots wanting American is “are the AA recruiters telling the truth”. They say if you what to be AA, go to a WO. Envoy is syncing everything in training up with AA. Does that mean anything? Maybe not, but it could mean AA is going to use the WO as the minor leagues to get known quantities in their pipeline. If they know a WO pilot can make it through a program structured similar as theirs and the training cost and washouts are incurred at the WO instead of AA, that’s a huge money savings and honestly a novel concept.

 

Our non-flow attrition is very junior. I really wouldn't count on that to reduce your flow much.

AA recruiters say go to a WO because AA hires very little non-military outside of flow. If AA is the only place you'll be happy, yes, by all means, work for a WO.

 

Or work for a WO and apply everywhere else too...

 

AA says go to a WO because it keeps their regionals filled with underpaid pilots that have poor QOL.