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Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3036297)
Yeah, really up in the air.
All of the sudden permanent retirement leaves at AA might actually cause a sudden, rapid drop in flow times in a few years if everything snaps back in a hurry. Or there might be BK filings or worse. And excargodog is correct... my company actually negotiated a higher first-year pay than what the union wanted, to make their recruiting easier. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3036297)
Yeah, really up in the air.
All of the sudden permanent retirement leaves at AA might actually cause a sudden, rapid drop in flow times in a few years if everything snaps back in a hurry. Or there might be BK filings or worse. And excargodog is correct... my company actually negotiated a higher first-year pay than what the union wanted, to make their recruiting easier. For the flow, it is better AA hire a steady 1000 per year for 6 years instead of 1500 for 4 years then pause 2 years. The flow needs to be steady month to month, every month. Every hiring pause because training got backed up or some other reason only adds time to the flow. Outside attrition is the only thing that speeds it up. |
Originally Posted by highfarfast
(Post 3036299)
9.28 comes from union projection of max flows per month every month with no outside attrition for a new hire at the time that projection was made. There are those that point to the fact that there IS outside attrition but they generally ignore the fact the outside attrition is usually very junior so it has only a small effect on that number and that the times when AA takes a month off from hiring generally has negated outside attrition. Most, including myself, thought that due to retirements that for the first time ever the union projection was a bit on the conservative side, some thought more so that ohers.
Nobody saw THIS coming though. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 9.28 stretched to beyond 10 years... it’s not that much of a difference. |
Why are you all still wasting your time war gaming about flow numbers right now? AAG and APA could start flowbacks next week for all we know (hypothetical) and you may not even have a job. Bankruptcy is floating around again...I mean there’s so many COA’s that could come into fruition one should be preparing for plan B,C,D,E etc Flow is gone for the foreseeable future. It’s dead. And if AAG goes solvent, our contract is voided and a judge decides what’s up. Sleep on that. 🤦♂️
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Exactly as mentioned above, plan for the worst.. in the late 90’s i was mad BezEX was mergers into Eagle. Cost me seniority. Bumped my flow up by 1 years , al All the Senior BezEX pilots took all the jet upgrades. The. 9/11 happens. Bumped my flow up to 16 years....
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Originally Posted by rld1k
(Post 3036302)
Flow is already maxed out with the current contract. So AA will just hire more OTS unless the flow agreements are amended.
I thought you could also get hired OTS also . How does that work, I know some have gone to AA that way ? |
Originally Posted by Crimson37Roger
(Post 2955620)
This the same crystal ball that provided this hot take?
Trust me, I'll hold you to that beer in 2023. |
Originally Posted by Gooch
(Post 3036419)
Why are you all still wasting your time war gaming about flow numbers right now? AAG and APA could start flowbacks next week for all we know (hypothetical) and you may not even have a job. Bankruptcy is floating around again...I mean there’s so many COA’s that could come into fruition one should be preparing for plan B,C,D,E etc Flow is gone for the foreseeable future. It’s dead. And if AAG goes solvent, our contract is voided and a judge decides what’s up. Sleep on that. 🤦♂️
All of the flow agreements (admittedly some were arbitration settlements), survived the last bankruptcy and all those pilots flowed based on AA hiring. If you are saying a bankruptcy might slow hiring at AA, that’s a reasonable bet. |
Originally Posted by Mozam
(Post 3036460)
I thought you could also get hired OTS also . How does that work, I know some have gone to AA that way ?
1. USAFA grad, or if you're a ROTC commission, be a fighter guy. 2. Son or daughter of someone on the AA list 3. A rare check airman who has networked hard (easier to do #1 or #2) Rotary guy? Spirit and Frontier seem to love those guys. |
Originally Posted by uavking
(Post 3036483)
Yeah, it's pretty easy, just meet one of a couple conditions:
1. USAFA grad, or if you're a ROTC commission, be a fighter guy. 2. Son or daughter of someone on the AA list 3. A rare check airman who has networked hard (easier to do #1 or #2) Rotary guy? Spirit and Frontier seem to love those guys. |
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