Ok, but this entire discussion is because there is a very real chance there won’t be enough OTS to staff them all, hence airlines fighting over each others feeder pilots. The entire pint was to try and think of a way to keep more regional pilots in the flow for one carrier.

I feel like you are arguing for the way things “have” been, not the way they will be. Anyway I always appreciate your reply’s so I will give it some more thought.

If by that you mean I am injecting REALITY in to the musings, I would agree...

look, I’m not defending things just because that’s the way they have always been, I’m explain why I think you are being naive. No t evil, not stupid, just naive. We all. Start out that way. But let me give you a few points of reality.

1. The major airline pilot unions do not like the regionals. Most were forced to accept scope only due to bankruptcy threats. They would like it if regionals simply disappeared, so they could pull the flying back into the mainline. It’s not that they don’t care if the regionals live or die, they’d really like for the regionals TO die.

2. Until you are off probation at a major, you are not really one of the gang and the senior people don’t look after you. Some examples:
A. Spirit first year FO pay is $57 an hour. To fly an A320.
B. Frontier first year FO pay (a later contract) is $58 an hour. To fly an A320.
C. UPS first year FO pay is $48 an hour. To fly a 747, 757, or 767. :eek:

that’s not because the unions don’t have clout. Second year FO pay at UPS is $186 an hour and even a second year captain - if they’ve ever had one - makes $300 an hour. But a first year Captain - again if they’ve ever had one - makes $48 an hour.

This topic has been repeatedly addressed on mainline forums. They don’t give a damn about the newbies pay. Anything the newbie makes, as far as they are concerned, comes out of their pocket. They will spend zero effort or negotiating clout on it at contract time. They don’t care that first year pay is a serious cut from what pilots coming from the regionals made at the regionals. - it’s managements responsibility. To keep adequate manning. If they don’t, there are senior guys happy to grab that open time at 200-300%. It’s the same for all the majors to a lesser degree. They don’t even care for their own junior people who they are working with. You expect them to care for you?

Now major management has no choice, they HAVE TO negotiate with the major pilot union. You guys - all regional pilots - are the unwanted stepchildren. Management can’t give you squat without cutting a deal with the union that considers you a competitor, not a comrade, and if management finds it hard to hire new people what you are going to hear from the major Union is:

b.co/]https://i.ibb.co/VCWhBcK/8419-D80-A-...59-C48-E81.jpg

and

]https://i.ibb.co/NNgZZN3/7725-E087-9...88-BAAD4-D.jpg


If you believe otherwise you are deluding yourself.

remember - the flow is not about staffing the mainline. The flow is about staffing the regional.

very much appreciate your post, depressing, but appreciated.

it depresses me too, but it is reality.

Thanks for the insight. It's nice knowing where you stand in the world, even if it's grim. Someone was flogging the APA picket on the 29th to some of our pilots. I wasn't sure how to feel, but now I am.

This post needs to be stickied and made mandatory reading for everybody working here. Well done, sir.

That 9.28 year flow is going to be well north of 10 years now for anyone hired in the past 24 months. Good luck, fam.

Can we see your math? Because no one has any idea what’s gonna happen lol...

Yeah, really up in the air.

All of the sudden permanent retirement leaves at AA might actually cause a sudden, rapid drop in flow times in a few years if everything snaps back in a hurry. Or there might be BK filings or worse.

And excargodog is correct... my company actually negotiated a higher first-year pay than what the union wanted, to make their recruiting easier.

9.28 comes from union projection of max flows per month every month with no outside attrition for a new hire at the time that projection was made. There are those that point to the fact that there IS outside attrition but they generally ignore the fact the outside attrition is usually very junior so it has only a small effect on that number and that the times when AA takes a month off from hiring generally has negated outside attrition. Most, including myself, thought that due to retirements that for the first time ever the union projection was a bit on the conservative side, some thought more so that ohers.

Nobody saw THIS coming though. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 9.28 stretched to beyond 10 years... it’s not that much of a difference.