The whole "paying your dues" argument is completely outdated and is just pilots putting themselves against each other because some more senior pilots think because they had horrible QOL and pay for a decade so everyone else should. Also for the requirement of being a CA for a year to flow somehow found its way into the CBA is just egregious, and completely goes against the spirit of USERRA. This is coming from someone who has no military experience and doesn't intend to, but what if a new 21yo FO gets drafted and his flow date comes up but he can't because he hasn't served for a year as captain? Really isn't fair at all. It could probably be challenged legally as well since USERRA clearly states a person should be given an advancedment opportunity based on the years they are with the company/where their peers are at. If guys in your new hire class flowed a year or two before you because you went off to war and came back, this completely goes against the "escalator principle" of USERRA. I'd love to see some military guys challenge it in court, which I believe there is come current arbitration going on via the union for this exact issue, but by the time that's up their new flow date will probably already be approaching. Federal law trumps any CBA, look at what happened at GoJet and their USERRA case. The company is already trying to withhold guys from flowing who were displaced as captain, which is completely opposite of what the CBA says is allowed.

It made its way into the CBA because there was a not so insignificant amount of pilots abusing the system. The system is there for those that do exactly what you stated however there were those that intentionally abused the rules and were not being deployed.

Personally, I agree with you however the company felt otherwise.

There will be abuse from both the company and pilot side for every single aspect of the CBA from whomever sees they can benefit from it. It just annoys me because I've seen multiple times guys on here put down military guys for taking orders and coming back to flow. It doesn't effect them, so why do they care? The CA requirement is just a way for the company to bandage their staffing issue. But again, I'd love to see some military guys come back from orders and challenge it in federal court. For context, here's the actual law which is pretty cut and dry.

“Escalator” Position
20 CFR 1002.192
The reemployment position with the highest priority in the reemployment schemes reflects the “escalator” principle that has been a key concept in federal veterans’ reemployment legislation. The escalator principle requires that each returning service member be reemployed in the position the person would have occupied with reasonable certainty if the person had remained continuously employed, with full seniority.
The position may not necessarily be the same job the person previously held. For instance, if the person would have been promoted with reasonable certainty had the person not been absent, the person would be entitled to that promotion upon reinstatement. On the other hand, depending on economic circumstances, reorganizations, layoffs, etc., the position could be at a lower level than the one previously held, it could be a different job, or it could conceivably be in layoff status. In other words, the escalator can move up or down.

Correct.
What the company calls abuse is simply pilots availing themselves of opportunities secured them through the collective bargaining process.
It’s not gaming the system or any such thing; it’s knowing your contract and using your knowledge to maximize your individual income or quality of life.
The company does exactly the same thing trying to minimize the money they have to pay you while getting the most work from you....

Same applies in this case

Like I said, I agree with you, just stating why the company feels they are correct. You are 100% accurate about it being a bandaid as well because they need CA's so badly.

If you join our military to defend my rights I feel you should get every opportunity the rest of us do and not be penalized for serving your country.

The company feels differently in this particular example.

I’m sure this is really nothing having to do with mil orders, and more about folks who hide out at the top of the FO reserve list for years, while running their side gigs and waiting to flow. It’s just a way to get these people to start flying and take an upgrade.

There's already an LOA for that. High time FOs that bid reserve purposely can be built/forced to fly a line instead in order to upgrade.

Unless I'm mistaken that LOA expired around February 2019.

Not only that, but as was stated, “high time”. Which is exactly why they hide out and never hit 950 hours. Hence, avoiding the forced upgrade.

Hmm never affected me so I guess I didn't notice. Can't be bothered to sort through the LOAs to find it so I'll take your word for it.

Yes, it expired Feb 2019, and applied to those with more than 800 hours qualifying towards captain.

So would you even recommend someone start training now to be a pilot seeing as how they will possibly be stuck at a regional for years or forever. Is it possible to make over 100k a year as a regional captain? Personally I’d love to join Envoy flow or not one day just because they are based in my backyard with me living in SPS. My current job pays around 80k a year, but I’d hate to leave a sure thing for all the negativity I hear on here. Even though my job sucks working on aircraft, I’d much rather be flying them one day and since I’m over the age limit for the Guard at 37 and other circumstances that knock me out for that position I’d love to be an airline pilot since planes are in my blood.

If you love the idea of flying for a living then by all means do it, assuming you are already rated, meaning you have the ratings just need the hours.

You could still end up at a major or ulcc if that is what you want. If you come into the industry now and join Envoy, just know that the numbers Envoy is selling are not going to happen, at least not at the rates we are currently/expected to be flowing at. You can however come here and get your time, still trying to get hired outside of the flow and just have it as a backup.

Sound advice, if you have the bug to fly, you're not gonna be able to shake it, you should chase it. Sure Envoy isn't all rainbows and cupcakes but I've honestly had a great time so far. Pilots complain by nature, we're always going to want better pay, better flow, more days off, yadda yadda, but if you live in SPS and you want to fly, Envoy is a great place to do it.

Don’t have any hours or ratings. Honestly me and my wife are thinking 3 years out before I start training. Gives us plenty of time to pay stuff off. And yes I hear seniority is everything, but that’s my timeframe as when to start training at 40 possibly 39. Giving me 25 or 26 years to train, build 1500 and give me hopefully 20 years to fly. I’ve always heard pick a regional you’d be happy to be at if you never make a Major. Being at SPS and seeing as how I think it will always be associated with AA with the AF base here and all the transporting of students that go here to DFW I think I’d be safe at ENVOY forever minus a lay-off. I’m just wondering how long it would take as a captain to make say 85k about what I do now with Envoy. Thanks again guys for all the responses who’s not even with y’all yet.

Assuming it will take you 2 years to get 1000h 121 to upgrade then you are looking at :
Year 3 CA pay 80$/h.
75 hours guarantee a month x 80$/h x 12 adds up to 72k/ yr. Add some perdiem and OT and you can easily make 80-90k as a CA on 3rd yr pay scale.

Thanks for this. But who’s to say in 3-5 years that the regionals will still even be hurting and that I can even land a job. But that’s guys for the information, y’all are great and thanks for all the guys flying the SPS to DFW flight and back keeping my safe.

You are crystal balling now and none of us have that answer. It depends on many things outside our direct control. The “odds” are pilot demand should continue but we can’t tell you to change your career, invest large sums of money and change your lifestyle solely on what may happen in five years.

Best of luck to you though. Another option if you really want to fly would be the corporate world. You could most likely get on quicker and make more right out of the gate. Just an option to consider.

With the last of the protected pilots out the door, flow is about to be more like an ebb or trickle.

What is the flow going to drop to now? Isn't it some weird formula taking into account the amount of pilots on property?

According to the projections that AA just put out, Envoy will flow 20/month for 2020.

20 per month, assuming AA hires 960 pilots or more per year.

There are approximately 140 in this next group. If they flow at rate of 20 per month we're looking at about 7 months for this group to flow at which point the flow should pick back up to around 25 a month starting August 2020. These are just rough numbers I came up with based on the latest seniority list so they could be wrong.

It will still be about 20 per month after the L10-11 group. We would need 3000 pilots on property (currently around 2380) and AA would have to also hire at least 100 per month for us to flow 25 per month.

This is the correct answer. With the PP gone, it’s now about 20/mo for the foreseeable future... at least for rough math figures anyway. 25/mo is hard to see.

20 per month

Hiring projections for 2020 are shifting fairly substantially from 2019 in terms of the ratio of street hires to flowthrough pilots.

In 2019, 927 pilots were hired. 54% were flowthrough pilots vs 46% of street hires (498 pilots vs. 429). Of the 498 flows, 322 were from Envoy, 110 PSA and 66 Piedmont.

For 2020, the company would like to hire nearly 1,400 pilots. 69% would be street hires, 17% Envoy and 14% for PSA/PDT combined. That breaks down to 966 street hires, 240 Envoy flows, and 192 PSA/PDT.

That does indeed correlate with 20/month from Envoy.

That sounds like great news, for military guys and guys at Skywest and Republic.

Your numbers are very, very rough.

To flow 25 a month, we need 3000 pilots on the list.
5 + 1 for each 125 less 480 on the list.

Pretty confident most of the OTS hires will still be military folk. Why would they start picking up Skywest/Republic guys? They get enough of their civilian fill from the WO's. Not trying to argue, genuinely asking the question.

20 per month x 12 months x 10 years = 2400 over 10 years.

Assuming this projected increase is accurate, I don't know if AA will be able to fill the OTS slots with military hires.

If this is the case, the question is will AA hire Republic / Skywest pilots or will they prefer to hire WO pilots outside the flow? I think only time will tell.

I feel one of the advantages of working for a WO is the opportunity to go to AA. If AA starts hiring non mil OTS guys who work for regionals with better pay/QOL then what would be the incentive for people to come work at a WO. I think AA picking up non WO civilian guys would only hurt recruiting at the WO's. I personally feel that the status quo will hold true, if you want to go to AA, it'll either be through mil or through a WO.

I'm already wondering why.

Why come here when AA is going to let THOUSANDS of pilots cut you in line for the rest of your career? Pilots that had higher pay, better QOL, more days off, more base options, faster time building, less hostile management practices. It seems like coming here is turning into a handicap, not a help.

As I see it, most of the military pilots that want to fly civilian as a career are already headed on that path. (How many do you know that just cannot get hired at the majors or regionals, or are just not trying? Not many, I would guess.)

Hard for me to see a big increase in military being hired; all the majors are increasing their hiring this year. Majors will all be competing for the same fixed pool of military pilots.

Likewise, if flow numbers stay the same, AA will not be getting increased numbers through the flows.

That leaves hiring more civilian from these WO and/or others.

Remember this is not a one shot deal. We are looking at the large hiring numbers, year after year, for the next decade.

Yes, the pool of "surplus" military is largely tapped out now (guys who took non-airline or non-flying jobs, rotor, etc). From here on out the only folks available to the airlines is really going to be the steady-state output at the usual gates (10, 20, 24, 30 years). They might be able to entice a few more at the 20-year gate.

Pretty much all FW UPT-grad mil pilots leaving AD with normal flight times (for their community) are petting snapped up immediately by one of the big six right now. No more blood in that stone.

And the mil CAN do STOPLESS if it gets bad enough, so even the steady state is not a guarantee.

The Navy rather dramatically underfunded their fixed wing flying slots from 2005 to 2012. They are still 1200 plus below their requirements. There flight training slots were fully funded in 2019 for the first time in over a decade. They hope to be caught up with requirements by 2023 but they are still losing pilots at historically high rates from those smaller classes as their active duty service commitments expire. Over the last decade they averaged a loss of 465 pilots a year peaking in 2018 (the last year for which figures were available) at 611 pilots.


https://federalnewsnetwork.com/navy/...llenge-begins/

The U.S.A.F. is similarly short on pilots for many of the same reasons. It is 2000 pilots short of its requirements and under totally optimum conditions can produce approximately 1400 pilots per year, something it has managed only once since 2007. The rest of the years have ranged between 1350 and 1100. They ASPIRE to produce 1480 pilots annually and are planning on cutting UPT by five weeks to do it. That may or may not work. Sometimes the shoe clerk’s bright ideas turn out to be pretty stupid (See Carter-era “dynamic duo” Air Training Command program).


https://federalnewsnetwork.com/dod-p...ilot-shortage/

The point is, if both the USN and the USAF both solve their funding and instructor programs they will STILL only be producing about 2000 fixed wing pilots a year. Except for the Reservist pilots, all of those will have a ten year active duty service commitment, meaning for the next decade all you can draw from are the already fairly depleted and under strength year groups. Of that number, some will hang in there until retirement at 20 years before starting their post retirement second career, some will go on longer to become Captains/Admirals/Colonels/Generals delaying and shortening their potential post-retirement civilian Careers, some will become medically disqualified or due along the way.

But the absolute MAXIMUM you are going to see going to the airlines is only going to be ~1900 a year and the average will be even less because that’s all the people still left in those year groups. Realistically, 1600 is probably about right - maybe even less since the USAF is contracting out their adversary air business.

But assuming these are divided up equally among the ‘big six,” that’s only about 300 military flyers per year per airline.

American Airlines alone is going to retire 900 pilots a year for the next six years, Delta another 800 a year, United 500... That doesn’t count expansion, the ULCCs, UPS or FEDEX, SWA...

The numbers of active duty military trained Pilots simply aren’t there, guys, it’s as simple as that. Nobody is going to be able to avoid civilian OTS hiring, especially since flow is designed to keep the regionals staffed, not to staff the major.

No-one can predict the hiring that's going to happen in the next 6-7 years at legacies/LCC's. All we know is that it won't be anything like in the past 6-7 years.

Saying that "flow is just to staff the regionals" or "they won't hire from their WOs because they don't want to kill that feed" is just ignorant. That same issue affects every single major. DL doesn't "want to" hire from EDV, UA doesn't "want to" hire from CommutAir, etc.

They will get their pilots from wherever they can get them. And if you say working for AA WO means you won't get hired at AA outside the flow, well, there's SW/UA/DL/UPS/FDX for you. And from CommutAir/XJT, go to DL/AA and so on. The non-WO regionals can't supply the pilots these airlines need.

The regional affiliation won't matter much in the next 5-6 years. The need for pilots will be so huge that "traditional" rules won't apply.

My crystal ball says Spirit/JB/F9 will have hiring bonuses in the next 5 years or so.

This the same crystal ball that provided this hot take?

Trust me, I'll hold you to that beer in 2023.