Ok, but this entire discussion is because there is a very real chance there won’t be enough OTS to staff them all, hence airlines fighting over each others feeder pilots. The entire pint was to try and think of a way to keep more regional pilots in the flow for one carrier.

I feel like you are arguing for the way things “have” been, not the way they will be. Anyway I always appreciate your reply’s so I will give it some more thought.

If by that you mean I am injecting REALITY in to the musings, I would agree...

look, I’m not defending things just because that’s the way they have always been, I’m explain why I think you are being naive. No t evil, not stupid, just naive. We all. Start out that way. But let me give you a few points of reality.

1. The major airline pilot unions do not like the regionals. Most were forced to accept scope only due to bankruptcy threats. They would like it if regionals simply disappeared, so they could pull the flying back into the mainline. It’s not that they don’t care if the regionals live or die, they’d really like for the regionals TO die.

2. Until you are off probation at a major, you are not really one of the gang and the senior people don’t look after you. Some examples:
A. Spirit first year FO pay is $57 an hour. To fly an A320.
B. Frontier first year FO pay (a later contract) is $58 an hour. To fly an A320.
C. UPS first year FO pay is $48 an hour. To fly a 747, 757, or 767. :eek:

that’s not because the unions don’t have clout. Second year FO pay at UPS is $186 an hour and even a second year captain - if they’ve ever had one - makes $300 an hour. But a first year Captain - again if they’ve ever had one - makes $48 an hour.

This topic has been repeatedly addressed on mainline forums. They don’t give a damn about the newbies pay. Anything the newbie makes, as far as they are concerned, comes out of their pocket. They will spend zero effort or negotiating clout on it at contract time. They don’t care that first year pay is a serious cut from what pilots coming from the regionals made at the regionals. - it’s managements responsibility. To keep adequate manning. If they don’t, there are senior guys happy to grab that open time at 200-300%. It’s the same for all the majors to a lesser degree. They don’t even care for their own junior people who they are working with. You expect them to care for you?

Now major management has no choice, they HAVE TO negotiate with the major pilot union. You guys - all regional pilots - are the unwanted stepchildren. Management can’t give you squat without cutting a deal with the union that considers you a competitor, not a comrade, and if management finds it hard to hire new people what you are going to hear from the major Union is:

b.co/]https://i.ibb.co/VCWhBcK/8419-D80-A-...59-C48-E81.jpg

and

]https://i.ibb.co/NNgZZN3/7725-E087-9...88-BAAD4-D.jpg


If you believe otherwise you are deluding yourself.

remember - the flow is not about staffing the mainline. The flow is about staffing the regional.

very much appreciate your post, depressing, but appreciated.

it depresses me too, but it is reality.

Thanks for the insight. It's nice knowing where you stand in the world, even if it's grim. Someone was flogging the APA picket on the 29th to some of our pilots. I wasn't sure how to feel, but now I am.

This post needs to be stickied and made mandatory reading for everybody working here. Well done, sir.

That 9.28 year flow is going to be well north of 10 years now for anyone hired in the past 24 months. Good luck, fam.

Can we see your math? Because no one has any idea what’s gonna happen lol...

Yeah, really up in the air.

All of the sudden permanent retirement leaves at AA might actually cause a sudden, rapid drop in flow times in a few years if everything snaps back in a hurry. Or there might be BK filings or worse.

And excargodog is correct... my company actually negotiated a higher first-year pay than what the union wanted, to make their recruiting easier.

9.28 comes from union projection of max flows per month every month with no outside attrition for a new hire at the time that projection was made. There are those that point to the fact that there IS outside attrition but they generally ignore the fact the outside attrition is usually very junior so it has only a small effect on that number and that the times when AA takes a month off from hiring generally has negated outside attrition. Most, including myself, thought that due to retirements that for the first time ever the union projection was a bit on the conservative side, some thought more so that ohers.

Nobody saw THIS coming though. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 9.28 stretched to beyond 10 years... it’s not that much of a difference.

Flow is already maxed out with the current contract. So AA will just hire more OTS unless the flow agreements are amended.

AA retirements won't make the flow any faster. Once the flow reaches the cap, all the extra seats in a new hire class will be filled by more OTS hires.

For the flow, it is better AA hire a steady 1000 per year for 6 years instead of 1500 for 4 years then pause 2 years. The flow needs to be steady month to month, every month. Every hiring pause because training got backed up or some other reason only adds time to the flow. Outside attrition is the only thing that speeds it up.

Thank you for an actual response. I was expecting to be roasted over my reply 😬.

Why are you all still wasting your time war gaming about flow numbers right now? AAG and APA could start flowbacks next week for all we know (hypothetical) and you may not even have a job. Bankruptcy is floating around again...I mean there’s so many COA’s that could come into fruition one should be preparing for plan B,C,D,E etc Flow is gone for the foreseeable future. It’s dead. And if AAG goes solvent, our contract is voided and a judge decides what’s up. Sleep on that. 🤦‍♂️

Exactly as mentioned above, plan for the worst.. in the late 90’s i was mad BezEX was mergers into Eagle. Cost me seniority. Bumped my flow up by 1 years , al All the Senior BezEX pilots took all the jet upgrades. The. 9/11 happens. Bumped my flow up to 16 years....

I thought you could also get hired OTS also . How does that work, I know some have gone to AA that way ?

I believe beers are owed

While I agree that the expected flow dates will be moving back months, and likely years, your description of bankruptcy is not accurate. Assuming a Ch 11 (in Ch 7 we’re all doomed), our contract isn’t just voided. The flow agreement would probably be one of the last things they try to negate. It has very low costs to the company and high value to the pilots who, in a bankruptcy, are actually unsecured creditors.

All of the flow agreements (admittedly some were arbitration settlements), survived the last bankruptcy and all those pilots flowed based on AA hiring.

If you are saying a bankruptcy might slow hiring at AA, that’s a reasonable bet.

Yeah, it's pretty easy, just meet one of a couple conditions:

1. USAFA grad, or if you're a ROTC commission, be a fighter guy.
2. Son or daughter of someone on the AA list
3. A rare check airman who has networked hard (easier to do #1 or #2)

Rotary guy? Spirit and Frontier seem to love those guys.

Demographics have played a large role historically also

Thanks.

The couple that I know of meet the criteria of number two.

Yep.
Filler

I heard flow will be 68 years.

Couple of things wrong so far with the last few days of posting, in my opinion.

1. [MENTION=89305]Gooch[/MENTION] There is no flow back, that has been mentioned multiple times in our forum and has been stated that it is not in our contract, thus AA can’t flow back into Envoy.

2. My flow was projected with silly union numbers to be 10.5 years one day one of hire. On the last interactive list, it showed 6.3. Our union cannot even replicate those same figures, so unfortunately they lack the credibility to provide insight on flow time, which brings me to point 3

3. Nobody on here, including myself, can predict flow especially right now. Once again, posts like these that are designed to detract pilots away from working here hurts yourself since the last flow group is predicated on how many pilots are on property. So, go ahead and keep bashing the hand that feeds but don’t be surprised why flow time could increase.


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It may increase a little but absolutely not the decade long time frame you mentioned in point 2. This is akin to a natural disaster and not an underlying weakness in an economy that was robust before all this happened. Demand will be back. The country is already beginning the process of opening up across the board. It won't be overnight, but by the end of May I can see being within 80% in terms of how open we were before. People are tired of being locked up and I've been reading bookings are through the roof for late summer in various beach and resort destinations.

As demand picks back up, you'll see aircraft gradually returning to service and hiring spooling back up down the road in the very near future. So, maybe an additional 6 months tops on the flow doe 6 to 6.5 total? Still, not bad.

I don’t know so much about that homie. AA never lets a good crisis go to waste. You might want to check out the number of aircraft that they permanently parked.

It will adjust your flow figure upward somewhat.

WHO just announced the worst is yet to come. Even if they are over stating it I am inclined to lean their way as opposed to your predictions, which have been wrong since I can remember.

What language/grammar is this?! 🥴

This wasn’t a recruiting post I’m trying to make. My point is, it is very difficult to make the prediction, like you just did, to see how flow pans out.

I agree with you on one point that it’s not going to drop our flow all that much in the grand scheme of things but ONLY if booking resume back levels by September 30th. That is a very key date for all of us folks.


Parker was on CNBC saying that businesses bookings spiked in June. I do believe cabin fever is a real thing, especially for people living in the north/ colder climates. The problem is the choice of what the governments are going to do


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There are way more moving parts than you all are taking into consideration. There needs to be no second wave, we need people to feel they are safe to cram themselves into sardine cans again, and we will most likely need more bailout money. I know y’all don’t want to hear it, but we just parked 2.5 fleets for good, even if demand bounces back, we won’t hire for a while. Sit tight and hope we don’t liquidate.


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I don’t think we see anywhere near 80% for 6-12 months.

I’m right at a year at Envoy. I don’t see me flowing until the end of the decade...if I can’t stomach it that long

🤣🤣#truth. Upgrade in 2, flow in 68. Sounds fair.

Welcome to Costco, I love you...

In the last 4 years, flow has gone from "the best way to get on at American in under 5 years", to "nice to have in your back pocket" to, finally, "an emergency last resort to salvage a small part of a failed airline career."

APC definitely needs a “like” button.

For some, there just isn’t time left to salvage an airline career.

This is very true. Thankfully I am in a pool but if that falls through I am actively working on two other career paths.

Pool to where?

My backyard.