Originally Posted by pitchattitude (Post 2938866)

Are you a line holding captain? There is still very little attrition besides flow once someone holds a line as captain. Most attrition is still FOs and non-line holding captains. In other words, the first two and a half to three years.

Originally Posted by pitchattitude (Post 2938866)

Are you a line holding captain? There is still very little attrition besides flow once someone holds a line as captain. Most attrition is still FOs and non-line holding captains. In other words, the first two and a half to three years.

Originally Posted by highfarfast (Post 2938880)

This is what I'm seeing too... mostly just flow movement that is. It would be nice if we got another union seniority list update. It's much easier to see the what and the where with that than just looking how your own number moves in DECS.

Originally Posted by dragongoliath (Post 2938889)

Anybody else can take over and update the alpa seniority list?

Originally Posted by dera (Post 2938882)

44 people left in the last month with a 3-digit seniority number. So almost 1 pilot for each flow went elsewhere.
Don't look at the DECS number. It doesn't really mean a thing.

Originally Posted by dera (Post 2938882)

44 people left in the last month with a 3-digit seniority number. So almost 1 pilot for each flow went elsewhere.
Don't look at the DECS number. It doesn't really mean a thing.

Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2938835)

This is what they’re counting on to make the flow stay under 6 years.

I said previously that based upon the increased big six and LCC hiring starting in 2020 that their projection - while inaccurate - probably won’t be far off.

I backed their claims in 2014-2015 of a 5.5-6 year flow because the math supported it. They just recently flowed the 2,000th pilot and it happened in under 6 years. I took a lot of heat from guys on here, talkairline and other places for being their “water boy” All I can say is I’ve always spoken the truth, even when it wasn’t always popular to do so. In my opinion, their claims of a 5.5-6 year flow won’t be that far off. Predicated upon no significant industry disasters, wars and such.

That said, I think the new metric that is going to make that flow rate attainable is a different metric than the one to date. Previously Envoy got 50% of all new hire slots. In practice it often got over 60%. Currently Envoy is getting 35% of all new hire slots. So, how can the flow possibly stay at 5.5-6 years?

The answer is obvious, the attrition will increase as flow becomes less and less important. Pilots putting the effort in to leave will be gone to a major/LCC/ACMI long long before ever waiting to flow. The pilot shortage attrition is what will keep the flow time short.

Originally Posted by pitchattitude (Post 2939085)

I not really sure how you can say DECS number means nothing. I agree it may not be a complete picture. What is your source for number of people that left and their seniority number?

I am just under 1000 in DECS and changed 32. Not a lot more than flow.

Originally Posted by dera (Post 2939091)

Where does the author of the interactive seniority list get his data? Same source. It ain't hard.

DECS numbers don't mean much. Why would they? People who quit 2 months ago are still in DECS.

New hire moved up 58 spots in the past 30 days. #1000 seniority moved up 44 spots. #80 seniority moved up 3 spots.
That's your attrition Nov-Dec.