Classes are full (yes 20-30 is what they want, remember the 2016-2017 hiring wave with classes of 30-60, training was backed up, people sat in no mans land on RSV for months, new FO’s were having to get extensions because they couldn’t even consolidate their 100 hours), recruiters aren’t wasting their time on APC... They’re too busy flying the 175 into Riddle, Purdue, etc. That’s where recruitment happens, not here.

Here the actual attrition numbers:

Lets compare flow plan 19-13 dated OCT 15 2019 and flow plan 19-15 dated DEC 13 2019. Thats about 2 months between each.

Junior NFE went from 2389 to 2293
Junior DCL went from 1185 to 1108
A random pilot OCL sub 1000s went from 792 to 721.

A new hire moved up 96 numbers in 2 months.
A junior DCL moved up 77 numbers in 2 months
A senior OCL moved up 71 numbers in 2 months

the company sent to AA 58 pilots in 2 months via the flow.

Even the senior OCL had 13 people senior to him/her leave outside the flow in this 2 month period.

I'm guessing the two retirements mentioned earlier were lifers which had no effect on flow so it's really 11 over two months (and those two retirements mentioned were just for the one month, they're may be more to be considered), or about 5.5/mo over the two month period. I think that's pretty good but it will take nearly four straight months of that to effect the month you flow if you are past your first 3 years.

It remains to be seen if this will be sustained though. I have to wonder if the AIP fiasco over the summer caused a lot of lazy pilots to update their apps triggering interviews in the fall.

I think we will see a lot more attrition in the sub-1000 seniority list. They have been here for 2.5-3 years and are now starting to be competitive elsewhere.

I ran some rough numbers, and the most attrition seems to happen between 500 and 1200.

Sounds like company math. Invisible magic attrition. Dude above literally did the math to prove the opposite. Also, since I have been here about 3 years, how please enlighten me on how competitive I am. And not at Frontier, Atlas, etc. With less 2500TT, I can’t even put in an app at Southwest until the end of the month. If recruiting doesn’t have you on payroll yet then they are really missing out.

You're struggling with your reading comprehension. I said "starting to be competitive".
You're way below your peers with your flight time, just FYI.
And the dude above literally just proved what I said.
The new hire moved up 38 spots plus 58 for flow.
The 1000 seniority DCL went up 19 spots plus flow.
So you had the same number of pilots quit/leave with 0-1000 as 1000-2300. I'm not sure why you call this "invisible magic attrition", when that's exactly what numbers are telling you.

Not I.

10/char

I actually think Dera is spot on in this case. As for you not being able to get hired at United/Delta or southwest surely doesn’t mean everyone with apps out has them as their destination.

I know several people who are leaving for LCC’s and are happy to do it. Your idea of an endgame doesn’t mean that everyone’s will be the same.

What’s the seniority for a composite line on OCL and DCL right now?

5yr flow according to Pedro
 

Envoy Air, based in Irving, is the carrier’s largest subsidiary and will send more than 300 pilots to American this year. Envoy’s chief executive, Pedro Fábregas, is proud of the constant flow of pilots that come through his airline and make their way to American.

“Pilots come to work for me because in five years, they’re going to be pilots at American,” Fábregas told the Dallas Business Journal in October. “We hire the best of the best. And if American wants to hire the best of the best from me? That’s good. That’s the way it works.”

Despite the constant flow of pilots to the mainline carrier and other regional carriers feeling the pressure from the shortage, Fábregas said Envoy doesn’t have a pilot shortage. There was softness back in 2015 but for the last couple of years, “the classes are full,” he said.