Not knowing the validity of this either, BUT if it was to happen one would think NY to probably DFW.

IDK if it’s better to TDY someone you’re paying to work a full schedule that’s not working at all, or keep those where they’re at and bring back the in base personnel that are being paid 25% to not work at all.

She was ORD. And I agree with what you say. But on the pilot side, all of us get those TDY bid notifications when there’s a TDY, whether we are in effected bases or not, AND we tend to talk about it here and on social media. So it struck me as weird she wouldn’t know anything of it.

Very true...

Can they just offer the leave again?

According to a post on the internets, AFA is saying that ORD and DFW based F/A's are all being called back in July. If you took a long term CSLOA and altered your life for it, then things are probably about to get dicey because pilots might very well be next to get called back.

BLUF: no one really knows what is going to happen until it happens.

The post you talk about is probably related to speculation from AFA from a week ago: “Based on the fleet information we now know that will return to active status, we believe that most if not all CSLOA’s may be cancelled with a return date of July 1, 2020.”

https://afanewsletters.org/view/?id=19200 (via afaeagle.com)

Here you go https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...&theater&ifg=1

Screenshot right from the MEC-E Newsletter Vol.5, No. 15 May 21, 2020 "ORD & DFW CSLOA Cancellation"

None of this makes any sense

Seriously!

Why not?
It makes a lot of sense.

Why would anyone be surprised that we're more profitable than the people doing the exact same thing for 4-10x the labor costs?

Of course AA is bringing us back first.

At this point it's anyone's guess what they are doing when it comes to staffing. I will continue to come into work and look for the coveted Slurpee machine as well as pray for an air hockey table.

I expect this to be short lived unless there is another stimulus. Summer flying by regionals to save money, then massive cuts across the board after CARES act restrictions are lifted

Bingo. If we do see increased utilization in the next couple of months, it will simply be to maintain CARES Act required service at the lower production cost that we provide to AAG. Contrary to the weekly “oooh, look at TSA counts” circle that pops up on the ORD FB, the national/global economy isn’t going to be healthy for some time. 01OCT quickly approaches with a dose of market reality.

So that’s why it would be smart for them to offer the leave again?

You’d think they’d offer more CSLOAs, but who knows at this point. If AA has to downsize ENY/PSA/PDT this fall (voluntary or involuntary furloughs), I’d expect to see something reminiscent to the 5-year voluntary LOA they offered years back.

I really hope they offer something like a 5 year leave

It's an interesting scenario if it goes like you say.

If they'd just furloughed us in April we'd be collecting unemployment until at least July, which would be a big raise for most of our FO's right now. Except in Dallas apparently, where there's beaucoup OT.

I am friends with a pilot at SWA and they haven't been used in nearly 90 days, so much so that they are going to have currency issues. The extra flying we are seeing are just because we can do it cheaper than mainline. The people on here saying flying is picking up and this is a "flash in the pan" are crazy. In much of the country cases are increasing with hotspots popping up.

This is going to take time and I really hope they offer another round of LOA's.

We'll be 50% of 2019 tsa numbers by July.

Is that 50% Domestic & 50% International?
Or Domestic only?

Because AA Domestic pilots required at 100% demand(pre Covid) were 4,150(active)pilots, and International pilots at 100% demand were 9,350(active)pilots.

So, for example 50% Domestic + 20% International = ?

“Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.”

No Furloughs at the regionals!

WHO will be at 50% TSA numbers?

Envoy numbers might be if AAG keeps propping is up at the expense of everyone else.

But international and wide body flying has to really get pumped up to see much of an overall increase and there certainly isn’t any indication that international will open significantly anytime soon and no indication of that much of an uptick in bookings.

Destination event/locations have to open and people have to be willing to jump back in the travel pool.

Go to the beach it's packed. Disney announcement tomorrow about opening in June. When the states open in June/July domestic is going to skyrocket. Intl is opening similarly. Doom and gloom from hacks on seekingalpha and airline MGMT fishing for concessions.

Maybe I'm bias because I just made a lot of money on airline and cruise stock options today.

I doubt it, but I honestly hope you’re right. As long as people wont be flying and walking Petri dishes.

Yeah I am not seeing it either, at least not to the extent you are proclaiming. Beaches can be full because it is locals going to the place they used to go to almost everyday, much like a grocery store. If you lived near a beach you would understand that. Same can be said for restaurants even though they have not seen a giant recovery yet either.

Long story short, comparing a beach to travel is ignorant and overly optimistic. Disney can open all they want, doesn't mean people are going to rush to it and we dont know "how" they will open. Maybe they greatly limit how many people can enter the part, thus again brining down your optimistic feeling of airline recovery in the next month or two.

I am not trying to be negative Nancy or anything, but it seems so many people are clinging to any bit of hope and not looking at the big picture. Envoy is insulated from a lot of this because we are picking up the required flying from AA as well as flying from our competition, mainly due to cheaper costs. TSA is still well over 2,000,000 people a day short of what they were last year, with just a couple exceptions. Think about that, 2,000,000 empty seats a day that are not being filled, a day. That will not just suddenly rush back to normal because states reopen or Disney opens.

Sorry, we are stuck here for awhile, which goes back to the days of fighting so strongly for solid contract improvements.

It's not just locals at the beach. I don't know anyone under 40 who gives a sh** about this virus. The only thing crushing us right now is governor's overreacting.

Im seeing 19 additions on the 145 and 10 on the 175. This is on the proposal for June which dropped yesterday. I’m not sure why the big change happened but Mesa went from 47 flights a day in June to 21.

Maybe you don’t, but two of the most millennial-esque (early 30’s and pilots) individuals I know are also probably THE two most paranoid people about this that I know.

One is physically separated from his wife during this, the other orders ALL groceries delivered and cleans the packages before they go in the house. He also won’t wear his uniform in the car and obviously in the house. Changes at work.

I am going to have to disagree with you on this one or at least call it anecdotal at best. I live in a state that has been leading the pack for easing of restrictions and even the local gym I am at, is still seeing crowds around 75% less than they used to pre-covid and this is a group of people that fall right into your number range. Again, this experience is anecdotal as well, however I think it is a little negligent to just say everyone under 40 doesn't give a ****. I also dont think governors are overreacting as this was a brand new virus that we had little to no information about, no vaccine for, no antibodies existed and very little good data on its spread. If you add in that they think it has over 19 variants now, this is something people need to be more concerned about.

Remember, it is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide from a communicable disease standpoint and has already taken more American lives than the Vietnam war, by a lot.

Another way to think about is this way. The US lost about 415,000 people in WWII and that lasted for us a little over 4 years. We have hit 1/4 that number already with Covid and it really hasn't even been 1/2 a year yet. I understand war and disease are different, but I am trying to put it into a perspective that we can measure against.

Shifting gears, the WSJ has an article out about how the stock market is doing well, yet consumer sentiment is at a 10 year low. We are seeing contraction instead of expansion, we are record unemployment, personal income is the lowest since 2013 all while consumer spending plummeted at a rate not seen since 1959.

Things are not rosy and come October, its only going to get worse.

Not to worry, THKoolAid will still tell you that you are still already an AA pilot and flow will resume any day.

Get a grip.
1. 2.8 million Americans die every year. Even if you actually believe that the entire 100k died of coronavirus, that’s less than 4% of all deaths.
2. 42% of those deaths were in nursing home patients. Nationwide, nursing home patients have an annual mortality of about 32%. Median survival for people confined to a nursing home is only 2.2 years. All it takes is a cold to knock off these people and the decision of the NY and NJ governors to put convalescing corona virus patients in the nursing homes - over the objections of the nursing home personnel themselves I might add - is responsible for thousands of deaths.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6143238/
3. This has peaked and we are in recovery:

https://i.ibb.co/m6xnFLH/0302-B58-F-...40146888-F.jpg

A more ignorant and insensitive comment I have yet to see. So what if 2 million for each year, this was an additional 100,000 that may have lived.

You comment is so ignorant and insulting I don’t even know what to say to it.

Is there really a correlation between number of deaths and day of the week?

AA Put 135/145s on routes typically serviced by 76 seaters. In every case where Mesa Lost a destination it’s been replaced with smaller metal.

It sounds like facts are difficult for you.

The amount of wasted space between him and thkooj makes me wonder why so many of you don’t know about the block/ignore function on this board.

The fact that you can’t put this in perspective is your problem, not mine. Every single death is a tragedy to someone and yet 2.8 million Americans DO die every year. Explain to me how you intend to stop that. Take your time, I’ll wait.

Why bother looking for a cancer cure then? Or have defibrillators onboard? Or the seatbelts?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/world...ntl/index.html

Actually, the Public Health and Preventive Medicine people look at the world in YPPL, Years of Potential Life Lost.

While every death is an individual tragedy In its own way, they are realistic. You don’t take the money needed to vaccinate a thousand kids and use it to extend the misery of an 80 year old with dementia. Resources are always limited and you spend where you can get the most bang for the buck. And yeah, that makes a seat belt - or an airbag - a good deal. Same if you can cure a life-threatening arrhythmia with a hundred joules of electricity. And two out of three new cancers ARE cured today.

But resources have ALWAYS been prioritized to where they would do the most overall good. To do otherwise from a public health standpoint would be immoral.

But seriously, do you really believe any amount of resources would EVER lead to human Individual immortality? Or that that would even be desirable?

This is 100% not true.
FSD, MKE, OKC, just to give a few examples.