it’s a histogram. It just reports the facts as given to the CDC. Is the cyclical nature real or an artifact of when someone comes back from a weekend and reports the data? I have no idea. But those are the stats we got:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

MKE was a regional full we did very occasionally. OKC went to a 65 seater.

OKC went to 65 and 76 seaters. FSD is 175. ELP is 175, and so on. No downsizing on those.

MYR, TLH, VPS, HSV, to bane a few others.

The 65 seat planes are routes being done by Skywest now?

TLH not a regular route.

MRY Was to Phx and that’s been down sized. DFW route remains Envoy as it has been.

Mesa is still doing VPS.

SDF and HSV are on equal metal I’ll give you that. So I’ll amend to MOST are down sized.

OKC was seasonal for Mesa. FSD as well. ELP as it’s a MX base is a concern. Overall with the 65 seaters it’s a reduction.

Envoy was flying Max routes. Mesa was flying traditionally Envoy routes. Scope kicks in as the 15 month force majeure for the max expires and and some 76 seaters have to go. I expect some will be Mesa come January.

CSLOA Survey
 

Would who ever put the survey on here close it out? It has an October end date. Pretty sure anyone that was taking the CSLOA that’s going to vote has voted and it always takes you to the survey instead of the newest post.

MYR not MRY. But apples and oranges.

I’m just talking the American side which never went to MYR in recent memory.

Which facts am I struggling to understand? Sure the trend is decreasing at a national level, because the places that had the absolute highest levels of deaths have flattened out ie. New York. This doesn't mean that the rest of us nor New York are out of the weeds or that 100,000 deaths is something to not be sensitive about.
Damn, what did I do to you to be deserving of such a comparison? You know this is a discussion board and unlike ThKooj I am not posting flagrant lies for the sake of trolling or misleading.
I can put it into perspective, in fact that is exactly what I was doing. The perspective that while we do lose 2 million people a year, this is an event that is non-normal and has already taken 100,000 peoples lives. My comment about being insensitive is just that, my opinion. You dont know who on these boards may have lost someone and you just logging on and nonchalantly stating it like its isn't a big deal, is insensitive. My perspective is fine.

This went off track obviously, as my comments are usually geared around the economy and how some on this board seem to only want to see things in a positive light, as if we are going to snap back in a couple of months. As I said, AA/Envoy may be insulated for the time being, but the rest of the country isnt.

May Economic Decline

GDP -5%
I say all of this with the hopes that people get a realistic view of things. Sure, the economy could do better than they predict, although it hasn't yet and in many cases, is lagging behind still, with the nearly sole exception of stocks. If you dont have a back up plan, money set aside or the desire to wait this out, you need to look at it from the worst case scenario and plan accordingly.

Call me what you want, but this isnt going to be over in a few months and it has most likely added years to your flow. I certainly am not wishing that, because it potentially added years to mine as well, but I am making plans if things dont rebound sooner rather than later.

When a person dies of the flu, it’s counted as a flu death. When a person dies of a heart attack it’s counted as such. If they happen to be diagnosed with covid and they die of a stroke, heart attack, diabetes, etc... it’s counted as a covid death. This has been confirmed by Dr. Birx and this is how every state is counting it. The 2019/2020 flu season is pretty much over and there’s only about 25k deaths. Yet, 2017/2018 had over 80k flu deaths. Maybe the flu wasn’t so bad this year.... ORRRR maybe a lot of those flu deaths are being counted as Covid. I find it hard to believe that there was a 70% difference.

Regardless, even if you truly believe that all 100k covid deaths are 100% strictly from Covid and nothing else. The updated death rate is 0.26% and it is most likely lower. It actually is a fact that half the deaths are from nursing homes. So the death rate is actually .13% (most likely lower) if you’re not in a nursing home. Or in other words... THE FLU. Do you not care about the Flu? Are you going to wear your mask for the rest of your life?

Social distancing and lock downs have stopped the spread of the Flu. It doesn’t discriminate.

66% of covid patients were people obeying the lockdowns and only going to essential places. Per governor Cuomo. Lockdowns did jack squat. Doesn’t make much of a difference to close parks when you’re rarely in close proximity to someone else. Yet, there are hundreds of people in the grocery stores and Home Depot. The virus doesn’t discriminate locations.

Regardless, let’s assume the lockdowns actually made a difference. Percentages don’t discriminate people obeying lockdown orders. Based on math, what’s your argument to freak out over covid and not anything else. Percentages are the same. And that’s even WITH a flu vaccine. Even if the 100k is truly only covid... Are you telling me that if someone told you back in 2017 that the flu was gonna be 20% worse that you would freak out and be ok with shutting down the entire country? I think not. I bet if you doubled the flu numbers people would still not give a rats behind.

It all depends on the state. Some states report the number of deaths each day. Other states report the number of deaths that they had since the last report. Those other states skew the data to make it look like Covid bids weekends off.

I can name fingers and point names:D ....... Lol Capt Jack Sparrow.
​

Hospitals all over the world have been overwhelmed in order to reduce the death rate to what you think is acceptable. People may not die but they still take up hospital beds.

There is a large incentive to mark COD as “Covid” on the paperwork. Maybe you have seen what’s happened to smaller regional hospitals? Furloughs, clotures, floors being locked up. They would love to have more covid patients. Why? because the govt is paying hospitals insane amounts of cash for each vid death in their hospital. Dr marks covid, the register sounds like a vegas slot w 777. Wife’s surgical floor was covid overflow.. for only 10 days. Been back to surgeries 3 weeks now, good sign for “hot spot” She got a antibody test a while ago and was positive. If it’s as contagious as everyone says it is, no doubt i was also exposed w zero symptoms. Lots of prayers sent that this is the case for most of the population. Stay Safe! Most importantly, stay healthy everyone!

I'm sure hospitals all over the country are itching to have more "vid" deaths so the can get that sweet slot machine sound, doctors and nurses love that sound. Please tell me you haven't been flying considering your exposure.

Your post sounds like your confusing test for the virus vs test for the antibodies. He was referring to his wife having tested positive for having the antibodies and presumed she already had the virus at some point in the past and didn't know it so HE must have had it in the past and didn't know it. IF he has the antibodies for THIS virus now, he's safe, as in he can't get it or spread it.

However, there appears to be an accuracy problem with many of the antibody tests out there. A lot are giving false positives.

Has nothing to do with wanting more deaths. If someone is going to die anyway and they just happen to show covid symptoms. They’re allowed to be marked as a covid death. If someone dies of a heart attack anyway, why would would anyone not count it as covid if they’re legally allowed to and there’s a financial incentive. Dr. Birx herself has said we are one of the few countries in the entire world that count covid deaths this way.

In a few states the average age of covid deaths is OLDER than the average age of deaths in general. You really think all of these people are actually dying from Covid when dr. Birx admits if it’s heart disease, heart attack, stroke, etc. it can still be counted as a covid death? Really?

And why are you accusing people of being ok with covid deaths? The percentages are the same as the flu. That’s even WITH a flu vaccine AND assuming all 100k covid deaths are strictly only covid. By you’re own argument you’re saying flu deaths are acceptable. Yet, covid you decide to raise a red flag. Why the discrepancy? Do you not care about flu patients?

Most estimates put the number of asymptomatic cases above 50%. There’s several studies that show this. But even if you don’t believe that, the CDC even claims its 35% on their website. There’s a good chance a lot of us have already had it. Especially being in the travel industry. Either you need to start caring about flu patients too, or you need to put your big boy pants on and get over it.

Sorry, but hospital personnel were furloughed...yes, furloughed, because they weren’t allowed to do elective surgeries and other routine procedures, like Pap smears and mammograms and screening colonoscopies necessary to detect the 3 million new cancers discovered each year. A mobile military hospital put up in Centurylink field in Seattle was packed up nine days later without ever seeing a patient. Navy hospital ships sent to New York and LA were sent home after being barely Used.


Only New York and New Jersey exceeded their beds available, New Jersey for a few days, New York (because of infecting all it’s nursing home patients by transferring contagious COVID patients there then bringing back to the hospital all the patients they had infected) for about three weeks.

Most states, like Florida and California, had empty beds aplenty:

https://i.ibb.co/sqttnfY/E147-A84-B-...-CA2971-B9.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/R38dtTt/51832-B05-7...7-DDD18-B5.jpg

This so called pandemic was all fake news we almost killed this nation on a .2% chance of dying. Cardiac disease kills 2000 people a day I don’t see us shutting down fast food restaurants, car accidents kill 75,000 people in the US a year why don’t we drive 25 miles an hour. I will tell you why we take risks. If you are scared stay at home. Don’t take my right to work. And masks don’t stop the virus all fake news.

New research shows the masks help.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucele...9-coronavirus/

I agree it was overreaction.

Wow. Lots of original thoughts that no one has posted on this site less than several thousand times.

Well done.

One problem here. If you choose to be a pig and die of a heart attack, it is only you that dies. There is a reason we have laws against drunk driving, drugs, speeding etc. it’s to stop people who want to do things their way from hurting others. Sure not everyone obeys those laws but most do, at least fairly closely.

If you have a highly contagious disease and let people run rampant as they choose, individuals are putting others as risk.

OMG dude! WTF! Keep the sick, older and susceptible confined if necessary. Open everything else up 100% now. If you have watched too much MSM and CNN and are quaking in your boots, by all means, feel free to keep yourself at home while the world keeps turning. If the death rates of this were on the scale of what was modeled in the beginning, you might have a case. It has proven though to be nowhere near the case.

Not true, actually. If you have a HIGHLY contagious disease, everybody eventually gets it regardless - see chickenpox before there was a vaccine. Quarantine of INFECTED makes sense if the disease is infectious, has fairly lethality, but not HIGHLY contagious - see smallpox before vaccinations.

But quarantining the vast bulk of uninflected so they don’t get a disease has never really worked. Or if it You believe it has, please cite me a case where it did.

I swear you two live in a bubble or something. This was a brand new thing we didn’t know enough about. You don’t go banking on the optimistic side of things when you don’t understand it. Sure now it’s easy to say some of what you are saying, or that in some areas we could have opened sooner, but three months ago that wasn’t the case.

As for your underhanded insult or that I am somehow politically motivated, I have never watched CNN or MSN, so blows that theory out of the water.

It wasn’t to stop us from all getting it, it was to stop too many of us from getting it at the same time. Do you even understand what happened? This was a resource management issue they had to balance. Of course herd immunity will eventually happen but we couldn’t have everyone getting sick all at once or else the numbers would have been way worse.

and yet except for NJ and NY, who inoculated their nursing homes to produce a wave of casualties, nobody was all that resource constrained. Seattle set up an Army field hospital in Centurylink stadium and sent it back to storage nine days later without ever having seen a patient. Navy Hospial ships were sent to support NYC and LA and were scarcely used.

https://i.ibb.co/GQrpR9J/46-FDD27-F-...121-C26-FB.png
https://i.ibb.co/VDSPbZp/8-B607-F4-D...E8-DC801-D.jpg


And states that didn’t lock down fared no worse statistically than those that did.

You can change the goal posts all you want, but you cannot show that locking down uninflected people has EVER been an effective public health tactic.

And almost one-quarter the total US deaths are directly attributable to three states screwing up by mandating that nursing homes full of susceptible people take in patient that were known to be contagious New York among those. About 45% of the cases in NY CAME FROM from nursing homes as a direct result of their BS directive.

https://i.ibb.co/b74GkQ3/123-D537-D-...AB13987-C6.jpg

Which they have now changed and will be paying billions for in a class action lawsuit in the near future.

and this was the result of that policy:

https://i.ibb.co/c6bWvZ2/985203-C4-1...3-FDC27-E3.jpg


look, I don’t blame you for being ignorant. Nobody knows everything. But I do think you are gullible, and too quick to opine when you don’t have the facts.

But if you think you can explain the rationale for quarantining the most contagious with the most vulnerable, which these states did, go for it. It ought to be interesting at least.

So are they gonna offer the leave again or should we expect furloughs very soon

Big news Friday

I haven’t heard anything regarding that but who knows, could be right. AA just had its stock downgraded even further into junk stock territory, things may be bleak at the top and we just haven’t heard yet.

Or, it could be nothing and things continue chugging along slowly, although we need to watch its ratings. One more downgrade and the company is in a status that it most certainly can’t repay its debts, hence chapter 11.

It’s going to be long few months.

What are you talking about. AAG stock has been slowly climbing over the last month. Granted it dropped in value drastically but it seems to have been recovering slowly since mid May when it was at its lowest point.

Why are these the only options? How about: Some will get called back from their leave, no new leaves offered, and no furloughs.

Block hours almost 2x for July over June.

Yeah it is a strange event, but all airline stocks are up at the moment. The "rating" dropped to the junk status, well a lower junk status then it was. Just because the stock price is up doesn't mean that it is a good investment, long term from a credit side of things. I am not a financial wizard, but I am sure there is some metric that can explain why the rating continues to suffer while the stock goes up. I have also misspoke a tad, in that rating should be "credit".

My assumption is that they don't feel very confident that AAG will be able to make enough money to pay their debts, hence the credit rating part of it. As I mentioned earlier, if it drops again, it will officially be in the "can't pay its debt" category.

Here is the article to read for yourself if you would like.
Market Watch

Not everyone shares such a bright outlook for the industry. While its great our block hours are up, they are only that way because of crutches put in place through AAG flying and picking up our competitions flying. Its not as if air travel has rebounded.

My concern has always been the business traveler. I am still fairly confident we are going to see a large hit, at least for the near future, to business travel. I have two great friends that used to travel almost weekly and when they didn't travel, went into a office for work. One is in financial planning and another in sales. Both have stated that their companies are going to let them work from home indefinitely and to minimize business travel to the greatest extent possible. Sure this is a small piece of the pie in terms of exposure, but it does give credit to the idea that business is seeing huge cost savings from teleconferencing. If I owned a business, I would be looking to save as much as possible.

Second, in terms of leave, I care because it offers me a device to plan ahead. If I knew there was a leave offered that I could take, it would allow for more plan b, plan c and plan d circumstances. I have said many times that I would gladly take a leave if it meant someone not getting furloughed or stuck on reserve while not flying.

Lastly, this bump in blocks hours is temporary in my opinion, adding to my first point. I have a feeling come August when AAG has to announce furlough decisions, they are going to take back what flying we may be doing extra for them. Certainly not going to furlough their pilots while we are doing excess flying, APA wouldn't stand for it.

Anyway, that turned out longer than planned and is really just rambling to keep an open discussion going. Even when we all strongly disagree here I find I always learn something or at least see something from a new perspective. Safe travels.

Big news Friday is meme.