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When Does AAG Declare Bankruptcy (Yet Again)?

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When Does AAG Declare Bankruptcy (Yet Again)?

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Old 08-29-2020 | 04:53 PM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by flybywp
DP said during the 2Q SOTA there's enough liquidity to last at least a year at the current cash burn rate. That was before any furloughs were announced. I guarantee 100% of the people who put "1Q 2021" have never looked at AAG's balance sheet.

Typically companies don't wait until funds are exhausted to declare bankruptcy. Nor is it required by law. Generally they do it while there is still money available to pay bonuses to the management executives that shepherd the company through the bankruptcy process itself.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uptcy-keet26zl

When Republic declared bankruptcy in 2016 they had actually been profitable for eight straight quarters:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...able/81035522/

But they could PROJECT that they were going to be unprofitable if they couldn't get rid of their fifty-seat flying, and convinced the bankruptcy judge to let them cancel those contracts and "right size" their company.

Only a a fool would think it couldn't happen like that again, or that management would wait until all resources were exhausted to go into bankruptcy.
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Old 08-29-2020 | 05:34 PM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Typically companies don't wait until funds are exhausted to declare bankruptcy. Nor is it required by law. Generally they do it while there is still money available to pay bonuses to the management executives that shepherd the company through the bankruptcy process itself.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uptcy-keet26zl

When Republic declared bankruptcy in 2016 they had actually been profitable for eight straight quarters:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...able/81035522/

But they could PROJECT that they were going to be unprofitable if they couldn't get rid of their fifty-seat flying, and convinced the bankruptcy judge to let them cancel those contracts and "right size" their company.

Only a a fool would think it couldn't happen like that again, or that management would wait until all resources were exhausted to go into bankruptcy.
I agree with everything you said. But Q1/Q2 isn't going to be it. Doesn't add up.
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Old 08-29-2020 | 07:44 PM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by flybywp
I agree with everything you said. But Q1/Q2 isn't going to be it. Doesn't add up.
Depends on the number of management execs you think you will need for the bankruptcy and how big the bonuses are you want to give them for slicing and dicing the company...
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Old 08-29-2020 | 08:12 PM
  #14  
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No-one will declare bankruptcy before there is recovery. Risk is too high for a judge to deem them unsustainable.
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Old 08-29-2020 | 09:33 PM
  #15  
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If this continues into next summer, it won't be bankruptcy it will be liquidation.
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Old 08-29-2020 | 10:32 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by wiz5422
If this continues into next summer, it won't be bankruptcy it will be liquidation.

^^^^^ This, expect CH7 from around least one legacy
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Old 08-30-2020 | 02:49 PM
  #17  
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Default When Does AAG Declare Bankruptcy (Yet Again)?

Originally Posted by dera
No-one will declare bankruptcy before there is recovery. Risk is too high for a judge to deem them unsustainable.

Although I see your point. I’ll take Boeing’s CEO assessment over yours just because.
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Old 08-30-2020 | 03:19 PM
  #18  
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I don't see the option for 2021, 2029, 2034 and 2040...
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Old 08-30-2020 | 04:03 PM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by wiz5422
If this continues into next summer, it won't be bankruptcy it will be liquidation.
I'm not saying it can't happen, but the economical ramifications of one of the three majors liquidating would be unfathomable. Entire metro areas losing massive amounts of jobs and access to air travel, both vital to their local economies. You would likely see federal government intervention before it gets to that point. Or a merger.

People who think one major can just "disappear" don't see the big picture. The consolidation from 10 years ago created three massive companies that serve purposes that can't be replaced easily.
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Old 08-30-2020 | 04:12 PM
  #20  
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Total opposite of what deregulation intent was.
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