View Poll Results: When does AA go bankrupt?
Q4, 2020
7
5.98%
Q1-Q2, 2021
29
24.79%
Q3-Q4, 2021
44
37.61%
2022
5
4.27%
2023 & Beyond
2
1.71%
“AA will never lose money again,” ENY flows < 5 years
11
9.40%
They won’t declare bankruptcy.
19
16.24%
Voters: 117. You may not vote on this poll
When Does AAG Declare Bankruptcy (Yet Again)?
09-01-2020 | 07:27 AM
#31
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 1,559
Likes: 125
From: Left
I'm not saying it can't happen, but the economical ramifications of one of the three majors liquidating would be unfathomable. Entire metro areas losing massive amounts of jobs and access to air travel, both vital to their local economies. You would likely see federal government intervention before it gets to that point. Or a merger.
People who think one major can just "disappear" don't see the big picture. The consolidation from 10 years ago created three massive companies that serve purposes that can't be replaced easily.
People who think one major can just "disappear" don't see the big picture. The consolidation from 10 years ago created three massive companies that serve purposes that can't be replaced easily.
Are you staying a merger will never happen ?
09-01-2020 | 07:29 AM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
Likes: 0
besides gutting labor contracts - I am unsure what BK does for any of the majors right now? The problem is not a cost issue, but revenue (and deep furloughs take care even more of the cost). Sure - the companies are all trying to minimize cash burn, but thats because there is hardly any revenue. I'm just not sure what BK unlocks.
I think if we the industry is not pushing 70%+ by the start of Q3 '21 - liquidation or nationalization is much more likely than BK.
I think if we the industry is not pushing 70%+ by the start of Q3 '21 - liquidation or nationalization is much more likely than BK.
09-01-2020 | 07:50 AM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
Likes: 0
Never say never. But due to the size of the big four, even taking the shrinkage into consideration, probably unlikely that further mergers would be allowed. That would create one MEGA airline and the four we have are already big. Need to preserve balance. Which goes back to likely preventing one of them from failing. And AAG is, arguably (unless you’re THKoolAid) is in the worst position.
Not to say that there couldn’t be a merger of carriers like Allegiant/Sun Country/Spirit/Frontier. A Spirit-Frontier merger has long been discussion fodder.
Not to say that there couldn’t be a merger of carriers like Allegiant/Sun Country/Spirit/Frontier. A Spirit-Frontier merger has long been discussion fodder.
Last edited by pitchattitude; 09-01-2020 at 08:21 AM.
09-01-2020 | 09:18 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
Likes: 0
Yeah. It’s a thought. Much like America West bought US Airways and then bought American. JB is just small enough to not upset the balance. But the reason I didn’t include them in my original post is I think their business model is enough different. And American just said they are basically giving up on business class, at least for the time being.
09-01-2020 | 10:23 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 381
Likes: 0
09-01-2020 | 10:26 AM
#38
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 88
Likes: 0
I still don't want to understand anything about mergers or furloughs because THkooj promised that something good was being worked behind the scenes. So please wherever you are come out. He promised that I should keep an eye on the stock market (AAL)
09-01-2020 | 07:38 PM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 188
Likes: 0
You have to consider that furloughs come off the bottom. The least expensive pilots. Yes some higher up guys get bumped down, but not significantly in the grand scheme of things. That’s why ExpressJet got the axe. All the pilots were on top tier pay. Couldn’t compete with CommutAir’s pilots on shoestring pay.
09-01-2020 | 07:46 PM
#40
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,025
Likes: 40
From: Whale FO
While true on a payscale basis, don't forget that more junior pilots typically have a family of dependents that AAG covers with health insurance (which isn't cheap). Senior pilots typically do not, with the exception of a spouse. Obviously there are exceptions to this but downplaying the cost savings of furloughing the junior pilots because "they are cheap" is a not as true of a statement as one might initially think.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
