Originally Posted by BaronRouge380 (Post 1624527)

Interesting predictionsMason. My question is how do you come up with these.
I am going to call you the APC prophet! :)
How will Envoy become the only way to AA if PSA and PDT already have paths to AA?
What if they decide to grow Pdt and PSA and slowly shrink Envoy to zero?
I am getting close to the 1500 hours (with a conditional offer) and strongly consider going to Envoy, just because I live in one of their large bases, but Envoy's future doesn't look very clear at this time.

Originally Posted by BaronRouge380 (Post 1624527)

Interesting predictionsMason. My question is how do you come up with these.
I am going to call you the APC prophet! :)
How will Envoy become the only way to AA if PSA and PDT already have paths to AA?
What if they decide to grow Pdt and PSA and slowly shrink Envoy to zero?
I am getting close to the 1500 hours (with a conditional offer) and strongly consider going to Envoy, just because I live in one of their large bases, but Envoy's future doesn't look very clear at this time.

Originally Posted by Mason32 (Post 1624226)

AA will continue reducing envoy frequency as larger RJs slowly come online. They will also drop the lowest yield markets. They will - within a year - make envoy the ONLY way to AA with a bigger flow program. They will buy other regionals for staffing more than equipment.

Once envoy becomes the only way to AA it will drive recruiting way up as pilots from places like Mesa, TSA, GoJets etc... Race to get hired at envoy. They can continue applying everywhere else, and be secure in their eventual flow to AA. Eventually, AAG will develop an ab-initio program to take them from zero to regional hero, with flow to AA. Finally, once all those pilots dry up, they will eventually bring the flying back in house. Delta will act similarly, but is far behind AAG in getting it set up. I told people for the past few years that the only jobs worth having will be with wholly owned regionals. Soon, you'll all see why.

I've encouraged our guys to get ahead of this and number all the envoy guys. The company controls hiring. They will make envoy the only way to AA, and that will in essence put them in seniority order, and we can't stop it. By numbering them all, we then demand a representation vote. Kick ALPA out, bring them into APA and begin a new contract. Some hard liners here at APA still can't see that we need to do this now before our leverage is gone. If the company does make all of our hiring from envoy, we will lose that leverage. The company is going to use our job as a hiring tool for envoy; while we collect no dues for an entire pilot group that us essentially stapled to our list.

Places like Mesa will eventually become dead end jobs as each legacy after legacy copies this model to attract pilots. As they default on their contracts, the legacies will poach them at giveaway prices.

Knowing how they think, I'd put RAH and AW high on the list for potential acquisition.

Originally Posted by RyanP (Post 1624662)

So theoretically.. "If" there was a ever a merge with RAH and all hiring done through Eagle (~F envoy). How would the flow work? I'm sure their would be some sort or seniority integration but as far as flow.. The only fair thing to do would be to staple them to the bottom of our current flow list. We have agreements in place and they are not part of it. People have been waiting years/decade + for this opportunity.. And we have arbitration awards in place. If they think they would just let RAH pilots mix in and cut in line over Eagle pilots they have another thing coming.

Plus any seniority integration would be a nightmare of people getting f-d over.. like the pinno-co-laba mess. Eagle is way more of a senior airline than RAH.

Originally Posted by rickt86 (Post 1624669)

Actually besides some pre 96 hires at eagle about 400 guys, the two are a similar foot print, esp post 2000 which makes up the vast majority of pilots. They would need some senior pilot fences to keep the senior eagle guys and the senior rah guys happy, however outside that it's fairly similar, we went on the same hiring binges the last 15 years and have similar upgrade times and fo seniority. Further the senior 400 at eagle is our managements biggest complaint, they would love to screw that group.

Originally Posted by RyanP (Post 1624695)

You sure about that? We have just about 1000 guys still with 2000 DOH or prior. Through 2001 comprises appx 40% of our seniority list. I doubt they are near that senior a group.. Maybe I'm wrong..

Originally Posted by rickt86 (Post 1624700)

Yes but remember by years end and into next year, we will suddenly only have 600-800 guys hired prior to 2000.