Bill, Val, Kelly, Gardner left y'all with a turd sandwich.

Goodluck!

 

The flow didn't start for non numbered 824's until December 2013. So, you're saying you're projected to flow in under 5 years from when the flow started, correct?

You tell me how flowing 300 a year to AA from a smaller envoy with 1500 total, and 1200 active, with 300 that won't flow doesn't equal a flow of street hire to AA in under 5 years? With an upgrade in there in the middle to boot. Like it or not, their plan will probably work exactly as they say it will. Their real problem is getting through the next 15-18 months while we are still shrinking.

 

If only everyone could see ^this guy's^ posts before the first TA about how AA can't staff anything, F the company, no more concessions, etc.. Then after he realized guys that get paid astronomically more than him to run a business and negotiate outsmarted him, he finally falls in line. If only he would have realized it sooner.

 

The past is the past and there is nothing we can do to change it now.

The important thing is that Envoy is quickly becoming the place to be. Smart people would do well to get ahead of the curve. Unfortunately too many people act like sheep and simply scatter to whichever Regional is CURRENTLY the flavor of the month. That's being behind the curve.

Envoy will have a 5 year street hire to AA flow in 18 months. Anybody hired before 18 months from now will flow sooner with an upgrade to Captain at Envoy to boot.

Kicking out be bad apples from our negotiating committee was a huge first step. They were toxic and unfortunately the NC chair is sill there..Herb Mark.

But AA's plan is working and people can come to Envoy and flow to mainline without ever needing to interview again in their lives. Pilots at other Regionals will have to throw money at job fairs, interview prep companies, etc...

 

PSA is on the verge of doing street captains
TSA had to offer CQFO to get their flying covered.
The well is drying up in case you haven't noticed.

 

Why it won't work as advertised starts with the ownership of Envoy, AAG. Not much different than the previous parent, AMR, perhaps even more ruthless.

Fact. Guys flowing now were hired in 1999. 16 years to get through. Recognizing the fact that 9/11 and the two recessions put the brakes on some of those guys moving, AMR still metered the flow in the past when the staffing model showed the pilot corps to be above what they needed. Today, the 20 per month is contractual, supposed to go to 30 in September right? Do you trust AAG not to meter or even stop the flow when they discover they need more guys?

Consider the discussions going on in the PSA thread. Apparently they are not well positioned for the airplanes they have now. Short Captains, they are having trouble getting the upgrades they need and are faced with many FO's without the required 121 mins to accept an upgrade. They have yet to take delivery of a single Envoy airframe. Maybe they will get their problems worked out but it will be interesting to watch.

AAG seems to be shooting itself in the foot in seemingly encouraging 700 guys to leave to get to the magic 1500. While many of these will be flow throughs, many more will be guys on the bottom of the list. With the well pretty much dry and with Envoy running 2 classes per month of no more than three to five guys, it is likely another disaster scenario. Sure, PSA is still getting large class numbers, but don't forget that many of these are ship jumpers from Envoy, Expressjet and Republic.

The regional tsunami as described on here by another poster has now sucked the tide far out to sea as it builds its massive momentum. Regional execs are still partying on the beach trying their best to rub elbows with their legacy counterparts. Party on guys, there will be no sympathy from me as the tsunami washes over you on the beach in the next year to two.

With these possible disaster scenarios mentioned above brewing, I can see AAG fully stopping the flow at some point. Hey, it's an emergency right? We've got 108 airplanes (or whatever the final number is at Envoy) to staff and "we ain't got nobody to fly em."

I myself was fortunate enough to be able to get hired elsewhere (a move up, not another regional) and move on from Envoy. It's not easy and I recognize that many others out there are trying just as hard and have yet to get the call. But it's a proven fact that at least 30 to 35 are moving on each month from that outfit in one fashion or another.

The flow is a nice backup plan I suppose, but I sure wasn't counting on it and did everything I could to leave the organization.

Hopefully you are right and the flow works as advertised, I just wouldn't count on it.

 

There was no hiring after 9-11. This is now all retirement driven. Kinda a whole different landscape. You can have a sour attitude about the past, but even another 9-11 doesn't stop the retirements.
Since the flow restarted it had worked exactly as designed.
Always present both sides and let the pilots decide themselves.

 

PSA street hiring captains is only going to hurt our cause more. I know there are a lot of people here who are avoid PSA on principle but if they start hiring street captains, that is only going to speed up the churn of our guys there. That then gives AAG even cheaper feed. Have 18 year CAs flying 50 seaters or 1st year CAs flying 76 seaters? Also, we still have yet to hear the details of the post-SOC flow through that PSA will get.

In order to go from 2200 (fact, recently seniority list) total pilots to 1500 total pilots, we have to lose 700. 20/month to flow and lets assume a modest 20 to elsewhere is 40/month. The numbers going elsewhere may be higher but we are actually hiring people and that number is, bizarrely, going up from 2-3 people/class to 6-7/class. Again, what is the retention of those guys? Losing 40/month means we will get to 1500 pilots in about 18 months.

However, this assumes the flow continues to work, we do not lose anymore aircraft (20 more to PDT anyone?), AA keeps hiring (SLI? PBS? D/I integration?), and that once we reach 1500 pilots, we can suddenly start hiring to have attrition = hiring. In order to market "5 years new hire to AA" you have to actually have it happen. It's like saying "Upgrade time at ZYX airline is __ years" - that is just what the most junior guy took.

As you said, the next 18 months are going to be painful. The pain stopping after 18 months requires a lot of uncertain things to happen that this company just does not have a good track record of following. IF, however, we do not lose any more airplanes, the flow has 18 months of working solid so they can say "Hey look, past 2 years each month we have consistently flown 20-30 guys over to AA", and maybe we can not only NOT lose anymore aircraft but gain some (175 options, some of our 145s back), then yes we can attract people, stay "right sized" and all get out of this disease. Slurpee machines wouldnt hurt either.

 

They already have that track record of meeting or beating the required flow.
Currently they are taking flows only and have dumped street hires into the pool awaiting classes.
Last year we sent over 50% and this year with the moratorium on street hires we'll send a higher percentage.

since the flow restarted with the first 35 numbered guys followed by the 244 and then the 824 it has been working exactly as designed, has it not?

I can gripe about a lot of things they do; this isn't one of them.

 

Go back and read what I wrote. I did not say it wasn't possible, and I'm certainly not going to carry RJ's water for him. My point was that making a career decision on a flow-through needs to be based on all the information, which includes a historical background of the good, bad, and the ugly. The guy asked the question, he deserves that much. The promise of flow-through has been the carrot dangling from the stick used to whip us. Believing that flowing to AA by such a program is a sure thing would be foolish. Even with all the retirements, we could have another financial collapse, or more likely AAG could decide that in order to preserve their regional feed they must stop the flow, as snippercr said. What are we going to do, GRIEVE IT? Yea, great, more years of our life lost waiting for an arbitrator to eventually screw us again.

If the guy still comes to Envoy and flows it 5 years, good for him. But he needs to understand that may not happen too.