Helluva first post. An alt for cr700?

Anyway, some have already covered the issue about airlines (and ENY in particular) have trouble keeping their word.

The holes in GiG's argument other than my previous statement:

They can stop at 39 175's. Not likely, but possible.

Metering. If they can drop to less than 50% now, they can go even lower if it suits them.

New hires. That pesky little problem. Tied to the preceding statement.

His perfect world does not account for the training center slowdowns that generally happen over the winter holiday season and often in July as well.

Is there a chance it could happen? Sure, but it's hard to believe when the company starts promises from a position of unapologetically breaking them.

 

Historic data at this point does not indicate that they are able to meet even a 15/mo average. I don't have actual numbers in front of me, but I remember the company making a big deal about getting 16 hires one month. Turns out, that was the number of applications, I think class ended up with something less than 10 people.

 

The numbers posted above are all pretty accurate, but there are other factors in the equation.

Here's an interesting list:

Date Filed / Grievance # / Description
07JAN15 - MEC-0115 - Insufficient Pay Credit for AQP CBTs
18FEB15 - MEC-0415 - Vacation Freeze
19FEB15 - MEC-0515 - Failure to Pay Contractual Signing Bonuses
13FEB15 - MEC-0615 - Cat II Flight Confidence Checks
21FEB15 - MEC-0715 - Peoria Hotel
08MAY15 - MEC-0815 - Improper & Unilateral Changes to Reserve Assignments
16JUL15 - MEC-1015 - Scheduling Contact (during rest / notification)
16JUL15 - MEC-1115 - Issuance of MA/Disciplinary Action from Attempted Contact when pilot has no obligation to answer phone
24AUG15 - MEC-1215 - Missed Assignments for Fatigue Calls
08OCT15 - MEC-1315 - Unilateral Imposition of Cell Phone Requirements
27OCT15 - MEC-1415 - Failure to Honor RAP Preferences
27OCT15 - MEC-1515 - Unilateral Imposition of Flight Time Buffer
27OCT15 - MEC-1615 - Improper OT Denials
30OCT15 - MEC-1715 - Refusal to Remove Touching Legs of when using PVD
06NOV15 - MEC-1815 - Long Term Disability Differential Premium Rates
20NOV15 - MEC-1915 - Right to Transfer 401(k) Assets to SuperSaver
20NOV15 - MEC-2015 - Improper Use of “MA” or “FT” code for “ER”
17DEC15 - MEC-2115 - Improper Denial of PVDs
24FEB16 - MEC-0316 - Leather Jackets
24FEB16 - MEC-0416 - Prevention of Bidding for Recurrent Training
24FEB16 - MEC-0516 - Failure to Minimize 401(k) fees when switching investment options

The above is a list of current group grievances that the union decided were worth pursuing against the company. Add individual pilot grievances and the list is much longer. What is the relevance to flowthrough? Well, when management goes in front of the arbitrator and argues their side, they often don't have any contract-based defense of their actions--because our union doesn't typically go through with the expensive and time-consuming grievance process unless they think they have real backing in the contract language. Instead, management often argues "operational necessity" as a blanket defense for anything they do that isn't contractual. It is an argument that frequently works, since many arbitrators don't want to be seen as detrimental to business.

So what happens if we don't get enough new hires to support both flowthrough and outside attrition? That is a lot of new hires. If we have better flow than other regionals, that means we need more new hires than them to keep it going. So far we have much less. I'm not sure that we have had more than a single month of 30 in the last year, and now you're supposed to count on a flowthrough that requires 72 straight months of 30-40 new hires to sustain it. Can you count on that? When staffing becomes an issue, will the company choose to fully honor the promised flowthrough, even if it means they have to park expensive and profitable airplanes? Doubtful. They currently would rather violate the contract on a given day rather than delay a single flight a few minutes, or use an extra reserve that likely wouldn't be flying that day anyway. As evidence I present the above list. Operational necessity trumps all.

That being said, maybe we will compete harder for new hires, maybe they will throw more money at the problem. But so will other regionals. Or maybe some regional consolidation will happen, and with who knows what effect on flow. Time will tell, and I am not telling people not to come with to envoy. I'm saying that pilots should consider the flowthrough a promise made by people who, today, are not trustworthy. Do not treat the flowthrough as a guarantee, because it is not. Contract language guarantees nothing with this company, spoken promises even less so. If you come to envoy, come here knowing that the flow of the next year or so will cause good movement and bring upgrade times down from their current 8+ years. But look at all sides of the argument before you make your choice. And don't believe anyone who says they can predict the future (me included).

 

Grasp at straws....I wasn't originally going to comment at all but some of you take the cake.

New uniforms are being rolled out this year and don't include the current leather jacket..so the Union files a grievance. So the next logical leap from there is they will stop the flow?!?!?!?

You sound just like the infamous Val Jester. Moan and complain and convince everyone the flow will never work, vote NO, and don't trust the company...and then BOOM! He flows to AA and now he's an MD-80 FO based in DFW.

He's just the tip of the iceberg. Each month another group of 30 flows and in that group are multiple pilots who spent years regurgitating the same speech about how you can never trust the flow, never trust the company....and then they flow. And all of a sudden they are posting pictures all over facebook of their new hire class, of their AA wings, and all the moaning stops.

Funny how that works, isn't it?

And another note, ORDordinary whatever.....aren't you the guy who owns a rental car business and would always drop their entire month and never come to fly? Are you bitter and angry now that you actually have to come to work?

 

Very well said

 

An excellent argument. Some people have a hard time accepting your information. But it makes complete sense and your not the first to attempt to argue this position.

 

1st year pay is raised with the sign on bonus. Works out to about +$5.50/hr for the $5,000 bonus or +$16.60/hr with the $15,000 bonus for former 121 pilots.

So 1st year works out to be about $31.50/hr or $42.60/hr for former 121 new hires.

Not great, but it's better than $26.

 

new hires today are saying show me the money!!! They are less worried about 5 years from now then this year. Why should I care about maybe or maybe not flowing when my income is below poverty wages? Should I make 30k or 50K???? How hard of a choice is that???? If I lived up north Endeavor is where I would be right now.

So no Envoy will not be able to hire the required amount of pilots without significant pay increases.

 

C'mon man you have to realize its more than leather jackets that cause people to question the flow. He listed a lot of grievances and you single one out. That isn't right. No one knows if they are going to continue to honor the flow if staffing becomes critical. Hopefully they make this place desirable and we never have to find out.

 

The man wrote a thoughtful post outlining a lot of problems with what is being touted.

You chose to yank one grievance out of that lengthy list and attack him personally.

Why don't you stick to the facts if you want to be anything other than an empty megaphone for the company?