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Originally Posted by Blackhawk
(Post 2599720)
Eagle is still around, though now Envoy. ACA and Comair were a different time- ACA after 9/11, Comair the tail end of the "great recession" when you could look under any overpass near an airport and find 12 out of work pilots. It took Endeavor over a year to absorb the RJ flying- the challenge is finding qualified captains. Not sure who would absorb 100+ worth of 145 flying right now when regionals are struggling to find pilots. I've never seen airlines so desperate for fresh meat to fill seats. Most are paying for RW pilots to get the FW time necessary for a R-ATP. While we are still top heavy, even the costs are coming in line.
You can't ignore history, but don't drive by looking in the rearview mirror. But you are right that $100 oil may throw a wrench in things. Cost will be inline with projections when Exjet is gone and sgu is free of the union and our contract comparison. I think you meant REGIONAL airlines are struggling to find meat. The legacy’s are doing just fine :D |
On the positive side
Im happy for those that have moved on to better things, thanks to SGU and United; competitors have snapped up some really good people. People are just as important as commodities.
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Reality
Originally Posted by Embxjt
(Post 2599735)
Im happy for those that have moved on to better things, thanks to SGU and United; competitors have snapped up some really good people. People are just as important as commodities.
Pilots are a variable expense that can be manipulated, (canned and rehired @ non union shop @ first year pay) vs. fixed costs such as fuel, insurance and asm’s. I am not here to pi$$ on anyone’s career expectations but when I see this rampant cheerleading about a proposed purchase option, it just makes me think there’s a presence here that wants to dilute the truth. Focus on the maths and the truth will be revealed. Sgu doesn’t like you, they like $ and you cost too much !!!:eek: |
Originally Posted by Baddog
(Post 2599734)
Somewhat agree with your statements.
Cost will be inline with projections when Exjet is gone and sgu is free of the union and our contract comparison. I think you meant REGIONAL airlines are struggling to find meat. The legacy’s are doing just fine :D I was comparing costs to other regionals in general as they are forced to increase their costs to attract pilots. I do think our costs are being hurt by the shrinking. As we get smaller the senior pilots become a larger percentage of our workforce. I rarely fly a CRJ with an FO less than 10 years. |
Thats why I believe there will be a consolidation. 3 mega regionals... then a few smaller WO’s (like QX)... may take 5 years. But i think it will end up this way...
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Originally Posted by amcnd
(Post 2599810)
Thats why I believe there will be a consolidation. 3 mega regionals... then a few smaller WO’s (like QX)... may take 5 years. But i think it will end up this way...
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Rationale
Unfortunately, exjet won’t be a part of anyone’s consolidation.
No aircraft, no equipment, (other than simulators) and no real estate. Exjet is basically a crew leasing company that is losing pilots to the competition and legacy’s, in that order. Even though the legacy’s will have recruitment problems within 5-10 years, there’s still almost 10,000 regional pilots to draw from. That kicks the can for them. The c series mitsu, and 175\190 will most likely be mainline aircraft. |
Originally Posted by Arliss
(Post 2599496)
As far as airframe ownership we're actually starting to see that United is buying the 145s. The placards on the flight deck door are starting to say United Continental instead of Wells Fargo bank.
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Originally Posted by calmwinds
(Post 2599868)
Pretty common in a capital lease for the ownership to revert to the lessee at the residual value of the aircraft. Wells Fargo wouldn’t want to own the 145’s and would have set the residual conservatively low. I suspect UnitedContinental used the aircraft to raise cash during a period when cash was needed. Now, as leases end, the ownership is reverting. All this should be in their annual report.
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Originally Posted by Arliss
(Post 2599918)
Cool yo. Is it a good thing or bad thing or neutral thing?
In the old world, the majors owned (or leased) all the airframes and found a staffing agency to crew them. The only exception to that model is SKYW airlines. SKYW owns (or leases) almost all airframes. There are a handful that are DL owned. That provides more leverage for SKYW to negotiate with cash strapped majors and provides more stability to the employees as it is much harder to whipsaw. Everyone else pretty much staffs aircraft that are owned by AA, DL or UA. |
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