It would be ManaAir LLC, which technically doesn’t even need a board being an LLC. Their control and voting power would be spelled out in the LLC operating agreement. Being private, who really knows who’s calling the shots and the voting power of each LLC member.

Envoy is pulling the 145's back into service, but permanently parking 22 E140's that were flown out of Dallas and New York.

These will be replaced with the compass 175's. A net loss of 2 airplanes.

Those Envoy guys better get their meme game sharpened up!

How do u know this? That sucks.

EV120, did something change ? When I last looked it was just 2 BOD members were also on SkyWest's BOD. One is Jerry Atkins.

701EV

Don’t think they’d be able to match that Compass group when it comes to memes

AA is flying 145s on traditionally 76 seat or even mainline routes in June. It’s utterly insane given that the 85 percent cap is causing most flights at this level of service to be full.

AA is trying to be the only option on many routes.

It seems to be working too. Buddy of mine said load factors were above 85% on all of his flights.


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The only true measure of what's going on is TSA passenger throughput:

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
Date 5/16/2020
Total Traveler Throughput Total 193,340
Traveler Throughput
(1 Year Ago - Same Weekday) 2,091,116

NO BUENO. We're all *******ed

The average load factor with the reduced schedule is now at about 60% out of CLT and DFW. There are multiple flights booked over 85%

load factor on a reduced schedule is just about meaningless when it comes to the airlines’ need for pilots. When you have a high load factor on an anorexic schedule, it DOES help the company reduce cash burn.....but they also don’t need very many pilots to make that happen. Dirk is right....TSA throughput gives you all the perspective you need to understand how big the problem is.

I forget the actual number they gave in the town hall the other day, but it wasn’t that great. We are running a 90% reduced schedule and can’t fill a plane. As states and cities slowly open, our loads will slowly increase as well. It was also mentioned that they are planning on using spare mainline aircraft to increase capacity as things start to recover. Not necessarily adding flights, just putting a bigger plane on the same schedule. The original forecast of demand being down 30% by year end is long gone. They are now predicting (hoping for) loads to only be down 30% by summer 2021. The casualties are going to be high on this downturn.

Will ExpressJet survive this?
 

10/1 will be a bloodbath for most of the industry.

However I don’t give their forecasts any credibility. Mgmt is just throwing darts and making wild ass guesses. There hasn’t been an economic event like this before and they having nothing to go on. The forecasts are just worse case scenarios to tell the stock holders, and make some kind of long term plan.


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There is some precedent, the 1918 pandemic. Difference was the hysteria wasn't as bad back then, but the economic recovery might well be similar, which is a good thing. They never got a vaccine, but we probably will around year-end (sooner with a lot of luck). Good discussion in this article...

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/17/85714...eat-depression

Maybe I’m just “woke,” or some of you home
analysts know better. My question remains if a company like ours get approved for X amount of dollars to cover payroll. Regardless if it covers 75%. It has been set to cover the senior Captains that were displaced. Unless I missed something, this leaves more gov’t cash for payroll that should’ve went to those that were locked in, no?

I call bs. Maybe at 85 not above because AA caps at 85 pct.

Will ExpressJet survive this?
 

CARES$ was enough to cover 75% of payroll for the entire company (pilots, FA’s, MX, Admin) May-September not just pilots. With the downgrades taking place there is probably more cash to cover a higher percentage of the whole company through 9/30.

CARES act only stated maintain employment levels through 9/30. There is open interpretation of what that meant. Since the White House is only concerned about unemployment stats, not underemployment stats the Treasury could probably care less if we we’re all downgraded to janitors, as long as we aren’t filing for unemployment.


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Why hasn't Expressjet offered early retirements or reduced pay leaves? Lots of folks getting their min guarantee and most of the reserve list has 0 credit for the month to date.

Is a lack of creative cost saving measures an indication that they're planning to fold?

I wonder what are likely precursors to the company sending an email saying they're closed at the end of he month, like TSA and Compass. XJT doesn't really have assets, right?

They have 40hour lines and no fly lines. I think if you dont see the latest bid rolled back somewhat in the next few months that would be a sign they are going under. You cant support the operation with 300 pilots.

I've said it before on here. We have all these facilities, hangers, buildings etc. Our infrastructure isn't small and efficient to scale down to only a few hundred pilots. Not only that, but the pilots that are going to be left are all top of the payscale in either seat, with 4 weeks vacation each, highest 401k match and defined contribution amounts. All of these factors lead to the perfect storm for the ultimate demise of XJT. I hate to say it but somebody has to inject some reality into these forums. That is unless a miracle happens.

Look at the graph on this site, if history repeats itself and there is another wave like with the Spanish flu, we are all done for. XJT or not. The first round was just a teaser. https://www.coastalreview.org/2020/0...y-be-deadlier/

lol, if I had a nickle for every time somebody posted that stupid fear mongering Spanish flu graph since March... What that graph doesn't take into account is a century advancement on living conditions, sanitation, and medicine.

While all of that’s true, human behavior doesn’t change. People let their guard down, start putting their fingers in their mouths again etc. With that logic the flu would’ve been eradicated long ago. HIV too, but people just can’t resist banging hookers without a jimmy lol

Everyone in ATL needs to be downgraded to janitor. ;)

Load factor at 100% !! Easy to do with one flight a day operating, that doesn’t keep the lights on however.

^ this

People need to think deeper than a single load factor of TSA pass through percentage.
Think. Bigger. Picture.

Critical thinking is a good thing.

ok, here’s my counter. My flights A319/320 have upgraded to 739/753. I flew an added SFO turn. My next couple of flights were originally RJ’s and are now on A320’s booked over 100 each. We have more flights popping into open time. 2 weeks ago we had 15 flights per day in EWR. Now we are knocking 30 a day. SK stated that July will be planned at 25% instead of 10%.

That’s something positive. Hopefully the PAX numbers and demand continues to climb.

A trajectory of +15%/month would be fantastic. Let's hope this continues. ORD was a zoo this weekend, long lines for the few restaurants that were open.

It’s uneven which I am sure is challenging but I’m hopeful. Some states have more activity than others.

That’s what is making the recovery difficult and fueling the inability to accurately forecast how we come out of this. Some states are mostly open, some partial, and some not. Major markets such as New York and California are being more cautious than others. Until there is a vaccine or at least a reliable treatment, things will be extremely slow. Also, many would like to travel, but don’t want to have to deal with the hassle of booking flights on reduced schedules, wearing a mask on the plane, or getting to a destination where restrictions are in place. I know that I wouldn’t travel right now. It has nothing to do with exposure to the virus, it is because it all sounds like a pain in the butt. The big displacement at United just closed. There should be a couple of clean up bids released starting this week. That should start to give people an idea of how things are going to shake out. They will announce the size of the initial furlough for United pilots, and the regionals should find out how much their flying will be reduced as well. Good times.

Counter- NK,F9,SWA, Will offer Uber cheap fares to really put the pressure on the legacies. Their profit margins will suffer.

This is a industry changing event for the next decade -

Not as industry changing as you might think.

What do the legacies do?

1. International.
2. Regional service to small towns that ULCCs either don't touch, or have very poor frequency.

Those two key service paradigms seem to survive every downturn and game-changing industry event. ULCCs won't be replacing that.

This is exactly what SK said the plan was going to be. Not increased frequency, but putting bigger planes on the same frequency until demand improves sufficiently.

Hahahaha. No,...no. XJT will not survive.

That's awesome, after 64 pages somebody actually answered the question.

This is APC what else did you expect.


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We’ve reached the conclusion....NO.
Time to close the thread LOL

Thank you Obi Wan, there is no hope.

The Simpsons said it best...