Per past shareholders comms, the CPAs with XJT roughly assume 60% break even load factors. Meaning that if they can maintain an average 65% load factor, the brand can survive until business can pick back up.

Remember, pax don’t really care if it’s an RJ or Airbus. Its all United to them.

DL will definitely win with their 717s and MD90s.

If that’s true why is DAL planning to ground those two airframes?

It is going to be quite the opposite if this reemerges after it is found out that these stay at home orders were pointless. There is a point where people are going to be smart enough to say "f#@#$ it", at risk people stay home everybody else needs to get back out and restart the economy and let herd immunity take over. Why to liberals think everybody staying home and not working is sustainable for anything more than a month or two?

Can anyone please show me where there is evidence of a COVID 19 transmission from one passenger to another on a flight? Someone they weren't traveling with?

Really? I’ve flown both of them with UA colors painted on the side, and I certainly disagree with this statement.

I am commuting to work tomorrow. 160 seats. 139 booked with an additional 16 non revs listed. Middle seat for me. Woo hoo.

I mean from a brand standpoint. If it says United, they think it’s United. Even though it’s flown by another company. Obviously the bigger the plane, the more comfortable to the general public.

Cant help to think this was a product of consolidation. Still though, if the airlines want to recover, from an optics standpoint, that kind of stuff won’t fly. No pun intended.

I was going this. Some people dont read the news that these airframes will be retired in June. 6 months ahead of schedule.

Maybe not pointless, but the target keeps shifting making the guidance pointless. First it was shelter-in-place to flatten the curve. Now it's a few more months, according to some experts. Or 2021. Or 2022. Testing isn't going to happen on a large scale. We can't contain the virus. We need to shift our attention to living with it long-term, whatever that may entail. There is no escape from this-it is now part of planet Earth.

And the AFA and their petition to legally ban all leisure travel is insane. I see their point, but what they want is absurd and probably not legal. They don't want to be the ones blamed in the post-analysis.

The xr will be the last to go.

We never bump pax or is on xrs. All xrs are dual fms.

I was in Dulles the other day and saw Commutair, Air Wisconsin, Mesa, Gojet, and Republic planes all parked near eachother waiting to load up passengers. It really made me realize the amount market overlap United has between it's regionals. It seems incredibly inefficient to have that many feeders serving the same airport. 2-3? That seems manageable, but 5? I personally think United's regional model will look very different when all of this is over with. There is speculation that they will follow what Delta did with simplifying their regional flying and split it up by different regions. I could see something like this working out for them:

-Expressjet: CRJ-550's - EWR, DEN, IAH

-Skywest: 175's- West Coast + ORD , (CRJ7 - DEN?)

-Republic: 175's- EWR, ORD, IAH

-Mesa: 175's- IAD, IAH

I think all of the CRJ-200's and 145's will be parked. Those routes, if still around, could be served with a CRJ-550.

Just pure speculation, but after the town hall announcement of 50 seat flying going away, I'm not too sure what to think about C5, and AWI. Also seeing that 2 out of the 3 Trans States Holdings operations have gone under, it really makes you wonder how serious they are about keeping Gojet running. Since United owns 49% of Expressjet (Mana Air), and did initially award them the 175's, it makes me think that they are still interested in working with them. The 175's being taken away did seem like a major blow, but it could have just been a piece to the puzzle. Also, doesn't Expressjet still have a CRJ program? If so, I imagine you guys could easily take on the CRJ-550 if asked to do so. Just my 2 cents as I sit at home bored during quarantine.

my guess would be Gojet expands, or Air Wisconsin gets the 550’s before XJ does...the whole type rated pilot on property may help that scenario.

Why would United transfer the 550’s to XJT? Wouldn’t it be cheaper to just keep them at GoJet? Also, wasn’t SkyWest going to fly some 550’s under some arrangement? If GoJet 550’s were going to transfer somewhere wouldn’t it be cheaper to transfer them to SkyWest if they already operate them?

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If United does decide to park the 50 seaters, XJT won't be around

As of May 1, Air Wisconsin is no longer flying out of IAD. The base along with CAE closes June 1. Air Wisconsin is left with just ORD and MKE.

I hate it when someone says something like this. Esp when they're right. Although XJT does have several hundred former ASA pilots with CRJ types. CRJ training docs still in the company docs..... So maybe there's a faint glimmer of hope.

That's what Skywest, Republic, and Mesa thought before XJT was awarded the 175.

Best I can tell, XJT getting the 175 had a lot to do with limiting the negotiating leverage of SKYW. Whether that remains a significant factor in the post-COVID world is up for debate. At this point, it's probably a coin toss.

The 175 coming to xjt was just a ploy to get the pilot group to sign the contract and for those planes to get certified in my opinion.

It doesn't cost anything to keep CRJ (and 175, for that matter) materials in the training program. Unfortunately, I think that's done more in the name of flexibility in case an opportunity comes up, rather than reflecting insight about something that's actually in the works.

I would expect those 550’s to go to SkyWest. They’re basically 700’s. SkyWest has the crews, parts and sims to fly them. They will give up 200’s in exchange for them.

I don’t see GoJet weathering this storm. 33 airplanes is not enough to make this profitable.

Sorry Flydafe, I'm not quite following this part. Can you explain a bit? Thanks sir.

What's crazy to me, and I don't have the facts just speculating. But is XJT now paying the lease payments to United on the 36 145's from trans states because they shut their doors early. I would assume so now that they are on property. But if so that just shows we are a pawn in United's little game; make XJT pay for planes they know will be sitting anyway due to the virus and bleed the company dry.

Didn’t UA have another Town Hall today?

Does XJT pay for any of the leases? I was under the impression United did for all the aircraft, as well as fuel. XJT just takes care of staffing, MX, etc.

Last I heard they the TS planes were all going to the desert from TYS soon.

thats not how any of this works

I’m by no means an expert or knowledgeable in getting planes from Brazil to the states to operate in the states but that box was checked when xjt did that. Also reading the clause in the contract signed it deemed that this was the plan all along

I agree. I think GoJet is toast..

Please do enlighten us. It's my understanding United owners the a/c, we sublease the aircraft and pay for maintenance. In turn we get paid by block hour and other performance bonuses. This is a snippet from the 2015 modified Capacity Purchase Agreement when we were held by INC. Obviously being a private company now, that info isn't public. But it may be buried in a United filing, I just don't feel like looking, these things aren't easy to find. There were provisions in the old CPA that said due to mass grounding the payment is abated but I'm not sure what the new one entails.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...1zex-10_22.htm

Covered Aircraft Sublease — means the Amended and Restated Covered Aircraft Sublease (or a lease) substantially in the form of the Exhibit B (or as otherwise agreed or amended) between United and Contractor, pursuant to which Contractor subleases (or leases) a Covered Aircraft from United.

Aircraft Sublease for each Covered Aircraft in the form attached hereto as Exhibit B. Until Contractor and United enter into a Covered Aircraft Sublease, the currently applicable lease or sublease for a Covered Aircraft shall be deemed amended to conform to the form of Covered Aircraft Sublease attached hereto as Exhibit B together with such changes thereto as necessary to conform to the applicable head lease, including without limitation the identity of the owner trustee, owner participant, financing parties, amount of basic rent and stipulated loss value; provided, that any such conforming changes shall not increase the obligations of Contractor under such Covered Aircraft Sublease as otherwise provided in the form of agreement attached hereto as Exhibit B. In connection with the entry into each Covered Aircraft Sublease for a Covered Aircraft, United shall use commercially reasonable efforts to assign to Contractor the warranties of the aircraft and engine manufacturers available to United with respect to such Covered Aircraft. If United is unable to assign the foregoing warranties and is not otherwise able to provide for an agreement directly between Contractor and the applicable manufacturer providing for warranty coverage of such Covered Aircraft, then United shall act on behalf of Contractor in dealing with the applicable manufacturer to enable Contractor to obtain the benefit of such warranties as if United had been able to make such assignment. United further covenants and agrees not to accelerate the “Head Lease Expiration Date” as provided on Schedule 1 hereto with respect to any aircraft being operated by Contractor pursuant to this Agreement as of the time of determination without the prior written consent of Contractor if such acceleration would result in the Head Lease Expiration Date occurring prior to the end of the Term or the sublease expiration date for such Covered Aircraft as set forth in Schedule 1.

(b) Basic Rent payable under each Covered Aircraft Sublease shall be entirely abated unless and until (A) such Covered Aircraft has been withdrawn from this Agreement and no longer constitutes a Covered Aircraft, or (B) the occurrence of a Labor Strike, in which case such Basic Rent shall be payable until (x) such aircraft, and all other items required to be returned pursuant to such Covered Aircraft Sublease and this Agreement pertaining to such Covered Aircraft, shall have been returned to United in accordance with the terms of such Covered Aircraft Sublease and this Agreement, or (y) such Labor Strike shall have ended, as the case may be. In addition, in connection with the return of aircraft to United pursuant to Sections 2.08, 8.02(b)(x) or 8.02(c)(i), or in connection with the repossession of a Covered Aircraft by a lessor, lender or other financing party under a head lease for or mortgage of such aircraft (other than a repossession resulting from a breach of the Covered Aircraft Sublease by Contractor), Basic Rent shall continue to be entirely abated for the following period:

(i) for the return of aircraft pursuant to Section 8.02(b)(x), with respect to any such aircraft, (A) the duration (if any) of the grounding applicable to such aircraft (but only if such grounding is a complete grounding, as opposed to a grounding for passenger service only), plus (B) such period as is reasonably necessary for Contractor to return such aircraft in compliance with the provisions of the applicable Covered Aircraft Sublease, but in any event for not more than a period of four weeks after the later of the applicable Termination Date or the end of the Wind Down Period for such aircraft, if any, for the first *** such Covered Aircraft being returned, eight weeks after such date for the next *** such Covered Aircraft being returned, *** weeks after such date for the next *** such Covered Aircraft being returned, and *** weeks after such date for the remaining such Covered Aircraft being returned (such periods to run concurrently); and

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(ii) for the return of aircraft pursuant to Sections 2.08 or 8.02(c)(i) or in connection with the repossession of a Covered Aircraft by a lessor, lender or other financing party under a head lease for or mortgage of such aircraft (other than a repossession resulting from a breach of the Covered Aircraft Sublease by Contractor), such period as is reasonably necessary for Contractor to return such aircraft in compliance with the provisions of the applicable Covered Aircraft Sublease, but in any event for not more than a period of *** weeks after the applicable Termination Date for the first *** such Covered Aircraft being returned, *** weeks after such date for the next such *** Covered Aircraft being returned, *** weeks after such date for the next such *** Covered Aircraft being returned, and *** weeks after such date for the remaining such Covered Aircraft being returned (such periods to run concurrently);

provided, that Basic Rent shall in each case cease to be abated with respect to any aircraft to be returned on the day following the day, if any, on which United waives any unsatisfied return conditions with respect to such aircraft. In addition, the provisions of Section 2.09 shall apply to the Covered Aircraft subject to a Covered Aircraft Sublease being returned to United.

(c) No periodic rent shall be payable under any Storage Sublease; provided that, with respect to any Deferred Obligations (as defined in the applicable Covered Aircraft Sublease), if Contractor (for all purposes of this proviso, as Sublessee in such Storage Aircraft Lease and the applicable Covered Aircraft Sublease) does not perform one or more of such Deferred Obligations, then United (for all purposes of this proviso, as Sublessor in such Storage Sublease and the applicable Covered Aircraft Sublease) shall be entitled to seek damages arising under this Agreement and/or the Covered Aircraft Sublease (but not under the Storage Sublease), including without limitation Basic Rent (but excluding Basic Rent for any period for which the Deferred Obligations have been deferred), against Contractor in an amount and type equivalent to the damages (arising under this Agreement and/or the Covered Aircraft Sublease) it would have been entitled to seek against Contractor had such obligations arisen under, and such non-performance occurred with respect to, the Covered Aircraft Sublease rather than the Storage Sublease.


(d) Neither Contractor nor any of Contractor’s Affiliates shall lease, sublease or otherwise obtain the use of any aircraft formerly subject to a Covered Aircraft Sublease for the six months following the termination of such sublease, unless Contractor has received prior written notice from United that United is not attempting to lease, sublease or otherwise obtain or retain the use of such aircraft (which notice, if true, shall be given by United upon Contractor’s request).


(e) Notwithstanding anything else contained herein to the contrary, if and when a Covered Aircraft Sublease terminates in accordance with its terms, then the aircraft subject to such sublease shall no longer constitute a Covered Aircraft effective on the date on which the term of such Covered Aircraft Sublease ends, regardless of whether the event giving rise to such sublease termination also constitutes an independent termination or withdrawal event hereunder. Any withdrawal occurring upon such a termination of a Covered Aircraft Sublease shall be separate and distinct from, and shall not limit or supersede, any other withdrawal rights of United contained in this Agreement.

It was pretty generic meaning no specific fleet plans, routes, etc. The main theme was that we are basically zero net revenue and at this point there has been no sign of recovery. We are bleeding bad, but not nearly as bad as others. When it comes to the recovery, they just don’t know. The initial forecast of revenue being down 30% this fall is now the optimistic view. The grant money bought some time. By late June, early July we should start to have an idea what October is going to look like. We are cutting to the bone for expenses. They can’t change the hourly rates, but they can reduce hours or positions to slow the cash burn. As a result many full time employees are having their hours reduced to part time and there will be a displacement bid for the pilots released tomorrow. There was no mention of what is in the bid. The rest was them talking about how serious they take this, that we’re family, that they know that lives are being affected by the decisions that they are making, but that they have to make them so that the company survives to provide good jobs when we pull through this.

Which contract are you referring to?

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I agree!! and i heard that they only have 30 that are configured what's your opinion on AW and C5 surviving

GoJet is supposed to end up with 60 CRJ550s in the end. 26 of those are owned by SkyWest and will be leased to GoJet.

Also 20 Crj700 converted to 550s from Mesa starting in Sep, also being leased.

Skywest and Mesa could just as easily keep them as 550s.

*Planned to arrive in September

Do you actually think any airline is spending money right now to remodel an interior of airplane? Those additional 550’s are being delayed.


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This is true. And totally possible. But JO will probably make a killing leasing them to GoJet. He gets to update his fleet while making money on old planes

The 175s Mesa is getting were already delayed and the new date is Sep. They were suppose to come in May originally, but the factory in Brazil is closed. That’s the current situation, can it change, of course. Anything can change in this given climate. But, as of right now Ian, the guy in charge of the program, is still working on the shipment. What happens to the 700s is anyones guess.. Mesa can keep them, go to skywest, go to Gojet, be sold... Nobody knows but the last thing was they would go to GoJet.

Again, anything can change so its easy to speculate.