U.S sees more than 70000 new virus cases for the second day in row, I think its safe to say there will be regionals joining TSA and Compass in the grave yard sooner or later. Plan accordingly!

k


filler

9:30 am EST on a sunday: Acey has 3 flights operating right now, all out of IAH.

for comparison:
commutair has 1; Wisconsin has 5, republic has 55, skywest has 80, mesa has 15

Also for comparison:

UAL has 95 flights airborne. AAL has 225. What's going on United?

AAL is done with boring bankruptcies. They want this next one to be absolutely fabulous.

UAL is in 'shrink to profitability mode.' AAL is in 'damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead mode.'

It's pretty hard to guess which strategy is better. Without significant improvement in bookings or more taxpayer assistance both roads lead to restructuring.

The early plans were all based on a V shaped recovery which clearly isn't happening (cue sophomoric reasoning that a vaccine will cause demand to roar back; the economic damage is already baked into the cake and will take years to recover).

The network carriers are not particularly well positioned to pivot to domestic leisure flying as the primary source of revenue. International and high margin business travel will be the last markets to return. Those markets are critical to both widebody and regional jet profitablity.

L shaped recovery is more like it. Tell we see what summer 2021 looks like..

So for us new guys who are still under the bonus agreement, it does state that we are not required to repay anything if we are terminated without cause. So if the airline shutters we are off the hook.

If it survives and we spend a year on furlough, I don’t believe that will count toward the 24 months because it requires “active service as a pilot.”

I also don’t think some asset shift to combine us with C5 could keep us on the hook, but who knows. They could try to TSA us and change the rules.


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A defunct company won’t come after you for a little bonus. This will be a question of solvency and cash flow. Minimal revenue coupled massive fiscal liabilities will be the nail in the coffin. Once the furlough happens everyone that will be left will be maxed out on pay scale, 401k match and 4 weeks vacation given the group is so senior. And that’s across the board in all labor groups, lots of senior people. This is no bueno.

This is true although if the group is prepared to take concessions then it could be viable in the short term. Although, not sure any pilot group is prepared to do that right now.