Even if this were true, it would be a while until it had any effect. As stated before, there are still a lot of pilots who had awards from 2020 and 2021 who are still waiting for training. All of those pilots would have to train before any realignment bid trained. Unless, of course, they cancelled those other bids, but that would open up a whole new set of problems since the company has trained new hires in seats ahead of pilots on the property who had those awards.

With these numbers, FedEx only needs 1000 more to completely cover retirements through 2032 based off numbers on APC FedEx profile.


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Not sure I’m following your logic here.

According to our ALPA page we have 1682 mandatory retirements through 2031. If they intend on staying the exact same size as we are at this moment, then we still need to hire at least that many in that timeframe.

We also still have additional airframe deliveries through 2025 to the tune of ~25 767s and ~7 777s depending on how many they have taken since September which will require another 400 pilots.

We currently have just under 6000 pilots on property. Worst case is needing to replace roughly 1/3 of that number in the next 8 years.

NICE TRY! you are only allowed to post negative comments or emphasize doom and gloom on APC.

The expected 1900 pilots retiring was mandatory retirement number and current rate has been roughly 2x the mandatory rate. 30-40% of pilot group will be retiring in next 10 years assuming no growth. I’m sure it will be a moving target over time but safe to say a lot of hiring just for attrition.

If we park all of the MD-11s we end up net negative on airplanes even with the new deliveries.

As an outsider I was just going of the information that was available to me on a basic math level. Your analysis seems much more accurate. Which I appreciate!


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Yeah and if my aunt had a d!ck she’d be my uncle.

Why would we make an assumption that all of the MDs would be parked without any replacements? Has there been any guidance to support that position?

That class brings us just over 6000 pilots on the seniority list 🥳

Hate to burst your party bubble, but not yet. Seniority numbers only update in June, so with retirements since then, we are still at about 5920. Then we will have pilots retiring on Dec 31 which will probably bring us below 5900.