The seat movements are happening right now to make it a possibility. Instead of going full tilt training new hires, they're going full tilt training people onto the 767 and 777.

It is actually easier since there are new hires spread around the fleets, if you furlough just need to give a trim to the junior FOs across the fleets. If all the new hires were 757FO then you hey would clean out that seat and have to push everyone down to fill those seats.

You'd be correct if the fleets were properly manned. They're not.

The 777 and 767 are still undermanned. A furlough would not work because trimming FOs on those fleets would leave them even more undermanned.

This situation will be "rectified" by the company in the next 6-8 months though.

If they furlough, they are admitting the company is terrible mismanaged, as this was solely on them for over hiring. Those furloughed would be better off going to the other airlines that are hiring like crazy, so other than the pain of switching, it’s not a big deal. I don’t understand the fear mongering about furlough. I don’t think the company will because once they do, that stigma is on them forever.

Also, they haven’t even asked for voluntary leave of absences yet. Or tried early retirement incentives (no the TA didn’t count).

Please stop with the furlough predictions.

What do you mean? Are you being sarcastic about the blazing start that 23-01 is off to? Company said 15 757 FOs per month!! How about that many for the rest of the calendar year… :rolleyes:

Just because the junior are spread across all fleets doesn't mean the company can't furlough. If they really want to do that (hopefully not), all it takes is some deviation from past practices. Namely, monthly bids. They can cue up replacements for who they show the door with about 2-months lead time. Put them through ITU/IOE and have them ready when they pull the trigger on the first say, 50. Then just keep the same pattern going until they're done with the furlough. I saw 100 per month for almost 2 years at a past legacy. Not difficult and that airline had over 10K pilots.
With most fleets buying up lines and the bottom 100 pilots representing a max of under 20 pilots in any specific seat, we're not talking major disruption. With cross-base options in every aircraft except M57 (unless E57 is an option), there are also options to fill trips via deadhead if a particular base gets thin on pilots.
Bottom line is, if the company really wants to make the F-word happen, it doesn't take that much effort. Just a little pre-planning. So, I wouldn't hang my hat on the spread of junior pilots being a show-stopper. Whether management really puts any value on being able to say they've never furloughed is up for debate. They used to care about delivering freight on time, now it seems - not so much. Time will tell.

The company could do a lot of things, you have to ask are they going to do things that will hurt then competitively or damage the brand? Furloughing would do both. They would have to admit they misjudged the Covid boom. It would show instability. Why would someone pick us as their shipper over brown?

I have zero fear that they furlough. And if they do, the pilots furloughed will have great opportunities elsewhere. Everyone is acting like this is 2001 again and no one is hiring.

Would a furlough raise or lower the stock price? The BOD and executives care only about one thing and that’s raising the stock price for the shareholders. They couldn’t care less about words like “brand” and “reputation”. Those days are long gone. Ask whether a furlough would increase or lower the stock value and then reassess.

The way our CBA is written they would only be able to justify furloughing based on continuing declining volume, as SAM continues to decline. Not sure a furlough in that economic environment would make much sustained bump in the stock price.

Either way I don’t understand why there’s fear over it. The majors are hiring!!

Non-contract hotel receipts and expense report notifications are half of the WINS you can come up with in support of voting in the Concessions TA?

Pathetic.

Please don't join the Negotiating Committee.