I agree, gotta take a long view on things.

I've got a buddy, hired last year, still waiting on a class date and he's as excited today as he was when he got hired.

 

Throw no PBS and pay rates into the mix and I think a new guy could be happy here. I still make > most Legacy guys hired 5 years before me and that is at NB pay.

Five years from now that could all easily change.

 

I know it's apples to oranges (or brown to purple), and the way things the apples do it is different than the way the oranges do it, etc.

But if FedEx H.R. changes some policies, it could (repeat could NOT saying it will) end up like the way UPS did it for years. In the pool too long, pool gets flushed, have to reapply, hoping to get the call AGAIN and interview all over AGAIN.

Not saying that's gonna happen. But nowadays, being in a pool ISN'T a guaranty that there'll be a class anytime soon.

UPS's pool was competitive also, man that musta' sucked for the guys that went through it back then.

 

Last guys to be in the pool at FedEx were there for about 4 years. Their place was held in the pool even after the 4 year mark. They had to do a little brush-up meeting with the SCP, and another sim ride, but no interview. I give FedEx HR, specifically Pilot Hiring Department, a big kudos for keeping the pool alive for so long. As you mentioned above, hopefully that does not change for the current poolies. But then, as it is now and always has been, being in the pool is just that, the pool. Until you have a seniority list number hanging from the lanyard of your choice , you have zero guarantees.

 

Yeah, that was PRETTY DAMN COOL that they held the sopts. SW did a similar thing for guys that were placed in a pool for a period of time, as well as JB.

But with the shift from the old school "meet and great/shake and bake" style where the pilots somewhat control over who to interview vs. the new PHD/HR interview selection style, who knows how it'll be handled. Hoping those guys don't get the "flush".

Man, I hope the guys that had to come back and fly the sim again DIDN'T forget how to fly between the first time and the bring back

 

ABC news report December just last year. We keep having our biggest day ever year over year...

This is the busiest shipping day of the year for FedEx. The world’s second-largest delivery company expects to handle 19 million packages today, up 10 percent from the busiest day last year. “Increased e-commerce spending is directly contributing to record holiday FedEx volumes,” the company said in a statement. Online holiday sales are expected to jump 17 percent according to eMarketer. FedEx founder and CEO Fred Smith expects overall retail spending for the holidays to rise between 3.5 to 4 percent

FEDEX'S REVENUE UNTIL 2012
Revenues of FedEx from 2008 to 2012 (in billion U.S. dollars)
2008 $38B
2009 35.50
2010 $34.70
2011 $39.30
2012 $42.70

http://fedexannualreport2012.hwaxis....eport_2012.pdf

I'm just not seeing that the sky is falling at FDX... Our overall Average Daily Volume is up from 2011-2012 (domestic a bit less, but made up with Intl.) Our earnings per package was up. Our revenue is as high as it's ever been. Our business plan looks sound to me. I was reading a report from a few years ago which predicted UPS's overnight air freight volume to be less than half of what ours was then.

Sure there are always bumps in the road, but the idea that our pilot force may be down to UPS type levels has no basis in fact IMO. When FDX makes only $100M for a quarter the sky's falling, when the PAX carriers don't lose $400M/Qrtr life's great! Remember we're in negotiations right now...

 

Well said. All part of lowering expectations during negotiations ...

 

I assume you are aware that FedEx Express revenue and shipping volume have more of a direct impact on our futures than overall FedEx revenue and volume (which is what you've posted above).
Most importantly, express is still making a profit. But of rising importance is a shrinking profit due to reduced volumes. Decreasing express volume is not a healthy trend for future hiring etc.. When that trend reverses, we will be on a much more comfortable trajectory.

 

Page 17 of my previous link. "Express Segment"

Every single revenue number is up for 2012 over 2011 and significantly from 2010.

2012 Revenue Package, 2011, 2010

US Overnight up 7%: $6,546M $6,128M $5,602M
US Ov Envelope Up 1%
US Deferred Up 7%

Total US Domestic package rev, Up 6%
Intl Priority Up 6%
Intl Domestic Up 31%
Total Package Rev. Up 7%

I don't see our overall package volume being less in ten years than it is right now with the way the world works. Commerce is king and internet commerce is a new and growing market place. The post office is dying on the vine which means in the long run we will have less supply of our type of service for the world to use which IMO is good news for us in the long run.

Business Management 101: Never waste a good recession!

 

sing it bro'. The company documents the facts to the shareholders, and must be in lawful SEC comnpliance in 10K-1' reports.

Corporate PR talking points to the press are just that, talking points to shape perception.

We are in negotiations, and percetions can drive some folks' reality. (negotiators, mediators, union, shareholders....).

However, the facts that you aptly pointed out (to include the reality of trend lines of relevant business metrics), should be what we keep in th forefront of thinking.