That post pertained to hiring in order to replace retirements..... My question was in reference to total pilot number due to growth and business expansion.

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I don't think, in terms of pilots, we're going to see growth and business expansion - because we're not really expanding. We've pretty much been hiring replacements since the expansion from the postal contract tapered off in the early 2000's. Our total pilot numbers have been pretty stagnant over the last decade and I don't see that changing. We may get a slight bump due to the TNT acquisition but our business, especially domestic is kind of maxed out.

So, IMO I don't think additional pilots over and above what they're hiring for attrition is going to happen unless we have something significant change in our air freight business model.

 

Meat,

In 15 years here I've never seen an accurate forecast. Another post on here somewhere pointed out the numbers they claimed they would hire, only to freeze up and stop hiring well short of those numbers. You've also seen the "we will have 6000 by xxxx..." dating back two decades.

My advice is don't sweat it. FedEx bids, hiring, and growth all tend to slide to the right, as do plane acquisitions and other projects. The uptick in 767 purchases is about the only thing I've seen happen fast since I got here.

Don't take that as complaining. Our checks clear, and this company will stop spending on hiring or planes in heartbeat when the bean counters say "pause". It gets frustrating, especially when you know in the long run we need new faces, jets, etc. Bean counters work by quarter and by FY, however, and the stock price has more than tripled since I got hired and I've never missed a paycheck, so I guess even though I know I'm smarter than any accountant (and that's sarcasm) they seem to do okay without my help.

What I will say is in 15 years I've learned a couple things here...

1. The next upgrade may be years away. If you really want to upgrade, then you better grab the ring when it comes your way. It may not come for a while. I could have held HKG captain in 2007. I could not hold it again until 2015. "It will go junior" is good AOC coffee chatter, but it doesn't always happen. Smaller clean up bids tend to also go more senior. You may hold a seat on the MOAB, but may not move up much for a long while.

2. See above. If you want to camp out and enjoy seniority, just because you bid an upgrade at 100% doesn't mean you are going to move up 10% each bid. When the hiring stops, everything stops...and musical chairs gets really quiet. Be ready to eat it at the bottom if you follow the guidance above, for a long time...

That said, you can trade, proffer, drop, and in some cases mil leave here and there and make it all work. That's the beauty of this place...its pretty flexible once you learn the ropes and use a little initiative.

But looking at a seniority chart and just hoping it will get better--that just doesn't do much for one's psyche. Tried it...lived it...don't put your hopes in a lot of rapid growth at purple. Its slow, steady, solid....but rarely is growth here for pilots exponential. We had 4200 or so when I got hired in 2002, and 15 years later we have about 4700. Thats solid, but I think you'd agree its not lightening fast.

Find a niche, hunker down, and plan on 200/year or 15 a month for the long haul. FWIW that's just a bit above what we've averaged since I got hired here...they just tended to go afterburner/idle vice leaving the power at 80% during that time.

 

Albief15 and Alderdriver ~ great stuff. I appreciate the feedback.

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FWIW--thinking our pilots in the 4300'sh ballpark, will be interesting to see how the. the numbers shift this July.

and there's an unknown # likely riding disability to retirement

 

Total is near 4700. The caboose in our indoc last week was 4693.
4300 may be closer number to "active" pilots? Of that, I would have no idea.


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Would anyone mind messaging me some information about being a pro instructor with Fedex? Your experience with the job, compensation, morale, retirement, room for advancement, and how likely a move to the line will be? Thank you much!

 

In 2002, how many three man airplanes did we have? I think we had about 500 folks sitting sideways in the 72 and the 10. Drop them out of the equation and that is pretty steady growth in the last 15 years.

 

That number (4693) doesn't take the retirements/LTD, deaths, firings etc., that have happened since last july. The "seniority number" is updated once a year.

 

I agree, but my point is whether you were an SO or FO on the list, the mechanics of upgrading and marching up the seniority list haven't changed much.

Here is another ray of sunshine, however that reinforces your point. We have only 119 narrow-bodies, and (for now) none on order. The 767 is the growth bird, and the 777 fleet will expand almost 50% in the next 10 years. What we DO NOT have now that we did when most of us got hired is an SO pay scale to climb up and over before getting into a right seat. Additionally, while many say we should pursue a UPS-like single pay rate, the fact is about 20% or more of our NB fleet is getting put into the 767 bidpack and paid at the higher WB rate. It is a defacto single rate for many guys (myself included) who sometimes fly the 757 but do it at WB pay.

That means most new hires make a move (in 2017) to 137/167 their second year. That 167 number is what makes FDX so lucrative for a career here. Payrate for payrate, the legacies have caught up or exceeded us on a few jets (777). Average pilot gets to a WB sooner and is on it longer at FDX, which helps the career averages.