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Frontier Future Growth

Old 07-09-2019, 07:42 AM
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Default Frontier Future Growth



Frontier pilot recruiting is selling this on their Pilot Careers page. Recruiting for just about any organization is going to sell you the most idyllic picture of their company in order to attract applicants.

How firm is their aircraft purchase order? Is it a executable contract or is it more like some of these vague 'letters of intent' you'll see pop up?

Additionally, with the alleged goal of tripling their fleet in the coming years, has the company indicated where any of this growth is happening? I'm assuming more crew bases, but where in their present network stands to see growth?
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Old 07-09-2019, 08:53 AM
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Oh boy, this is about to get ugly.

I'll say that the orders are definitely real, and the aircraft are coming. Obviously they could get canceled or delayed at any time, but until that happens, they are coming.

There are many industry following news publications that closely follow and track orders. If they ever cancel or delay orders, we will know it. They can't secretly cancel or delay.

I believe that Indigo and Frontier have every intention of growing us as much as they possibly can. That's business 101. Anyone who comments below that this is all smoke and mirrors and the growth plans aren't real, clearly has virtually no understanding of how businesses work. The stock market is obsessed with growth. Every company wants to be as big as possible. The larger the fleet, the larger the profit potential.

Pilots are inherently negative and im sure we will see much doubt and negatively in this thread, but the truth is, profits are made larger by larger companies. Why do you think Southwest makes Billions while we make Millions? Its fleet size.

Our growth plans are large, but it will take a lot of time. If we grow from 1500 pilots to 3000 pilots by 2024, that's only 300 pilots a year growth, which is good but it's not exactly explosive. And to those who say the growth just hasn't happened, you are fooling yourself. Under Indigo we have grown from 600 pilots to nearly 1500. And on top of that, the number of passenger seats has increased substantially. Swapping 319s to 321s is huge growth to the airline even if it has no effect on pilot numbers.

As far as where growth occurs, I don't think they have any idea. I don't think they have any idea where they will fly the XLRs. And even if they do, they sure as hell aren't going to tell anyone! Especially not us.

I will say though that Biffle told us once that in a perfect world, we would have 2 domiciles in each time zone, 1 North and 1 South for 8 total bases.
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Old 07-09-2019, 11:57 AM
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Way too many variables to consider, of course the main one being the state of the economy in the coming years. Some are of the opinion the ULCC model is recession proof. There may be a grain of truth to that but the airline industry in general is volatile so we will never know how F9 will weather the storm until the music stops playing.

If you are looking for explosive growth from a seniority perspective, you can’t beat the legacies. They will have close to 50% turnover in the next decade without a single additional airplane on property just due to retirements. Frontier has a relatively young pilot group, with maybe 1 or 2 retirements a month being the average.
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Old 07-09-2019, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by AncientAliens View Post
Way too many variables to consider, of course the main one being the state of the economy in the coming years. Some are of the opinion the ULCC model is recession proof. There may be a grain of truth to that but the airline industry in general is volatile so we will never know how F9 will weather the storm until the music stops playing.

If you are looking for explosive growth from a seniority perspective, you can’t beat the legacies. They will have close to 50% turnover in the next decade without a single additional airplane on property just due to retirements. Frontier has a relatively young pilot group, with maybe 1 or 2 retirements a month being the average.
I would be surprised if we reached anything close to those ac numbers in that time frame. The only businesses that are recession proof are mortuaries, hospitals, and bars. We’re in a better position to withstand a recession than last time. But to believe we’re going to continue to grow that fast in an economic downturn is naive. Not to mention a merger or buyout before then. I hope I’m wrong.
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Old 07-09-2019, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by fcoolaiddrinker View Post
I would be surprised if we reached anything close to those ac numbers in that time frame. The only businesses that are recession proof are mortuaries, hospitals, and bars. We’re in a better position to withstand a recession than last time. But to believe we’re going to continue to grow that fast in an economic downturn is naive. Not to mention a merger or buyout before then. I hope I’m wrong.
Pilots have successfully predicted eight out of the last 3 recessions..
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Old 07-09-2019, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Punkah Louvre View Post
Pilots have successfully predicted eight out of the last 3 recessions..
Right, we’re going another 6 plus years without one. It’s really not a prediction it’s something that’s inevitable.
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Old 07-09-2019, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by fcoolaiddrinker View Post
Right, we’re going another 6 plus years without one. It’s really not a prediction it’s something that’s inevitable.
Eleven years. I rest my case :-)
But you're absolutely correct, of course, and the last one was so severe it almost crashed the entire financial system. Hopefully the next one won't be so severe. While not recession 'proof', the LCC business model has thrived in Europe over the last 25 years, I hope we do the same.
We really don't know how people will behave when the economy goes pear shaped; will business reduce travel or choose cheaper options; will families drive instead? I. would suggest that business travelers will still be sensitive to on time performance and rapid recovery from Irregular Ops..
Blue skies..
/PL
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Old 07-09-2019, 05:49 PM
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Pilot years or human years?
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Old 07-09-2019, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Punkah Louvre View Post
Eleven years. I rest my case :-)
But you're absolutely correct, of course, and the last one was so severe it almost crashed the entire financial system. Hopefully the next one won't be so severe. While not recession 'proof', the LCC business model has thrived in Europe over the last 25 years, I hope we do the same.
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11 years without a recession means its more likely. I really hope your not resting your case on the fact that there hasn’t been a recession in 11 years (we were furloughing 11 years ago as were most airlines) means there won’t be one in the next 6? Most economists (not me) are predicting mid 2020 and not as bad as the last.
I’m probably a little more skeptical than most dealing with a furlough, bankruptcies, and multiple paycuts under this management (same ones minus indigo). Assumptions your making to get to 250 ac by 2026. No merger, no buyout, no recession, no deferrals for any reason ( airbus or f9), pilot shortage not an issue, I could go on and on. I’m assuming 1 or more don’t get us to 250 that quick. We’ll find out. I like the optimism but IMO a bit unrealistic.

Last edited by fcoolaiddrinker; 07-09-2019 at 06:35 PM.
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Old 07-09-2019, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Punkah Louvre View Post
Pilots have successfully predicted eight out of the last 3 recessions..
^^^^^^

Filler
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