Frontier Future Growth
#1
Gets Weekends Off
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Joined APC: May 2019
Position: CA
Posts: 191
Frontier Future Growth
Frontier pilot recruiting is selling this on their Pilot Careers page. Recruiting for just about any organization is going to sell you the most idyllic picture of their company in order to attract applicants.
How firm is their aircraft purchase order? Is it a executable contract or is it more like some of these vague 'letters of intent' you'll see pop up?
Additionally, with the alleged goal of tripling their fleet in the coming years, has the company indicated where any of this growth is happening? I'm assuming more crew bases, but where in their present network stands to see growth?
#2
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: 1900D CA
Posts: 3,380
Oh boy, this is about to get ugly.
I'll say that the orders are definitely real, and the aircraft are coming. Obviously they could get canceled or delayed at any time, but until that happens, they are coming.
There are many industry following news publications that closely follow and track orders. If they ever cancel or delay orders, we will know it. They can't secretly cancel or delay.
I believe that Indigo and Frontier have every intention of growing us as much as they possibly can. That's business 101. Anyone who comments below that this is all smoke and mirrors and the growth plans aren't real, clearly has virtually no understanding of how businesses work. The stock market is obsessed with growth. Every company wants to be as big as possible. The larger the fleet, the larger the profit potential.
Pilots are inherently negative and im sure we will see much doubt and negatively in this thread, but the truth is, profits are made larger by larger companies. Why do you think Southwest makes Billions while we make Millions? Its fleet size.
Our growth plans are large, but it will take a lot of time. If we grow from 1500 pilots to 3000 pilots by 2024, that's only 300 pilots a year growth, which is good but it's not exactly explosive. And to those who say the growth just hasn't happened, you are fooling yourself. Under Indigo we have grown from 600 pilots to nearly 1500. And on top of that, the number of passenger seats has increased substantially. Swapping 319s to 321s is huge growth to the airline even if it has no effect on pilot numbers.
As far as where growth occurs, I don't think they have any idea. I don't think they have any idea where they will fly the XLRs. And even if they do, they sure as hell aren't going to tell anyone! Especially not us.
I will say though that Biffle told us once that in a perfect world, we would have 2 domiciles in each time zone, 1 North and 1 South for 8 total bases.
I'll say that the orders are definitely real, and the aircraft are coming. Obviously they could get canceled or delayed at any time, but until that happens, they are coming.
There are many industry following news publications that closely follow and track orders. If they ever cancel or delay orders, we will know it. They can't secretly cancel or delay.
I believe that Indigo and Frontier have every intention of growing us as much as they possibly can. That's business 101. Anyone who comments below that this is all smoke and mirrors and the growth plans aren't real, clearly has virtually no understanding of how businesses work. The stock market is obsessed with growth. Every company wants to be as big as possible. The larger the fleet, the larger the profit potential.
Pilots are inherently negative and im sure we will see much doubt and negatively in this thread, but the truth is, profits are made larger by larger companies. Why do you think Southwest makes Billions while we make Millions? Its fleet size.
Our growth plans are large, but it will take a lot of time. If we grow from 1500 pilots to 3000 pilots by 2024, that's only 300 pilots a year growth, which is good but it's not exactly explosive. And to those who say the growth just hasn't happened, you are fooling yourself. Under Indigo we have grown from 600 pilots to nearly 1500. And on top of that, the number of passenger seats has increased substantially. Swapping 319s to 321s is huge growth to the airline even if it has no effect on pilot numbers.
As far as where growth occurs, I don't think they have any idea. I don't think they have any idea where they will fly the XLRs. And even if they do, they sure as hell aren't going to tell anyone! Especially not us.
I will say though that Biffle told us once that in a perfect world, we would have 2 domiciles in each time zone, 1 North and 1 South for 8 total bases.
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 289
Way too many variables to consider, of course the main one being the state of the economy in the coming years. Some are of the opinion the ULCC model is recession proof. There may be a grain of truth to that but the airline industry in general is volatile so we will never know how F9 will weather the storm until the music stops playing.
If you are looking for explosive growth from a seniority perspective, you can’t beat the legacies. They will have close to 50% turnover in the next decade without a single additional airplane on property just due to retirements. Frontier has a relatively young pilot group, with maybe 1 or 2 retirements a month being the average.
If you are looking for explosive growth from a seniority perspective, you can’t beat the legacies. They will have close to 50% turnover in the next decade without a single additional airplane on property just due to retirements. Frontier has a relatively young pilot group, with maybe 1 or 2 retirements a month being the average.
#4
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Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 2,059
Way too many variables to consider, of course the main one being the state of the economy in the coming years. Some are of the opinion the ULCC model is recession proof. There may be a grain of truth to that but the airline industry in general is volatile so we will never know how F9 will weather the storm until the music stops playing.
If you are looking for explosive growth from a seniority perspective, you can’t beat the legacies. They will have close to 50% turnover in the next decade without a single additional airplane on property just due to retirements. Frontier has a relatively young pilot group, with maybe 1 or 2 retirements a month being the average.
If you are looking for explosive growth from a seniority perspective, you can’t beat the legacies. They will have close to 50% turnover in the next decade without a single additional airplane on property just due to retirements. Frontier has a relatively young pilot group, with maybe 1 or 2 retirements a month being the average.
#5
Bus Driver ordinarie
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Airbus CA
Posts: 555
Economists too....
I would be surprised if we reached anything close to those ac numbers in that time frame. The only businesses that are recession proof are mortuaries, hospitals, and bars. We’re in a better position to withstand a recession than last time. But to believe we’re going to continue to grow that fast in an economic downturn is naive. Not to mention a merger or buyout before then. I hope I’m wrong.
#6
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Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 2,059
#7
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Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Airbus CA
Posts: 555
2008
But you're absolutely correct, of course, and the last one was so severe it almost crashed the entire financial system. Hopefully the next one won't be so severe. While not recession 'proof', the LCC business model has thrived in Europe over the last 25 years, I hope we do the same.
We really don't know how people will behave when the economy goes pear shaped; will business reduce travel or choose cheaper options; will families drive instead? I. would suggest that business travelers will still be sensitive to on time performance and rapid recovery from Irregular Ops..
Blue skies..
/PL
#9
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Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 2,059
Eleven years. I rest my case :-)
But you're absolutely correct, of course, and the last one was so severe it almost crashed the entire financial system. Hopefully the next one won't be so severe. While not recession 'proof', the LCC business model has thrived in Europe over the last 25 years, I hope we do the same.
Blue skies..
/PL
But you're absolutely correct, of course, and the last one was so severe it almost crashed the entire financial system. Hopefully the next one won't be so severe. While not recession 'proof', the LCC business model has thrived in Europe over the last 25 years, I hope we do the same.
Blue skies..
/PL
I’m probably a little more skeptical than most dealing with a furlough, bankruptcies, and multiple paycuts under this management (same ones minus indigo). Assumptions your making to get to 250 ac by 2026. No merger, no buyout, no recession, no deferrals for any reason ( airbus or f9), pilot shortage not an issue, I could go on and on. I’m assuming 1 or more don’t get us to 250 that quick. We’ll find out. I like the optimism but IMO a bit unrealistic.
Last edited by fcoolaiddrinker; 07-09-2019 at 06:35 PM.
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