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av8nallday 12-21-2023 01:34 PM


Originally Posted by Stayontarget (Post 3740144)
Welcome to aviation. Good news is we are still hiring but just a reduced amount it would seem.

Anybody have an update for the class size that started the 18th? With only 16 spots on the bid sheet I would be surprised if it was more than 20.

While it’s very early yet we are starting to see some trends. F9, NK, UPS, FDX slowing or no hiring. I’m sure there are others.

last I heard it was 15-20 planned.

CH1203 12-21-2023 03:53 PM


Originally Posted by Stayontarget (Post 3740144)
Welcome to aviation. Good news is we are still hiring but just a reduced amount it would seem.

Anybody have an update for the class size that started the 18th? With only 16 spots on the bid sheet I would be surprised if it was more than 20.

While it’s very early yet we are starting to see some trends. F9, NK, UPS, FDX slowing or no hiring. I’m sure there are others.

SWA reduced their hiring outlook for 2024. From 1800-2000 in 2023 to 900-1000 for 2024.

Dragonslayer69 12-21-2023 04:31 PM

Seems like the legacies hired fat and now they will grow into it. F9 can't keep pilots. So, my guess is we will shrink somewhat reducing class sizes. That should do wonders for movement within the company.

FlyingR6 12-21-2023 04:59 PM


Originally Posted by Stayontarget (Post 3740144)
While it’s very early yet we are starting to see some trends. F9, NK, UPS, FDX slowing or no hiring. I’m sure there are others.

NK is very clearly because of their engine issues. I've heard they will be down 25 planes by this time next year.

UPS and FDX, in my opinion, are actually right sizing and have pressure from Amazon. They grew like mad during Covid, and now they are fat. Plus Amazon has been building and building this whole time, and are doing a lot more on the ground and in house with DHL, Atlas, and all those small cargo outfits. Again, my uneducated opinion.

F9, on the other hand, no idea. With bases popping up and aircraft coming pretty quickly next year, who knows.

Stayontarget 12-21-2023 05:36 PM


Originally Posted by FlyingR6 (Post 3740266)
NK is very clearly because of their engine issues. I've heard they will be down 25 planes by this time next year.

UPS and FDX, in my opinion, are actually right sizing and have pressure from Amazon. They grew like mad during Covid, and now they are fat. Plus Amazon has been building and building this whole time, and are doing a lot more on the ground and in house with DHL, Atlas, and all those small cargo outfits. Again, my uneducated opinion.

F9, on the other hand, no idea. With bases popping up and aircraft coming pretty quickly next year, who knows.

Ya I figured NK was 3-500 pilots overstaffed when I heard the affected airplane number. Pretty wild.

I was listening to 121.5 podcast today and they had one of the career/interview prep guys on talking about a slowdown in the churn. These numbers are total guesses but we were seeing 1000 pilots a month, sans regionals, with job offers before and now we are probably seeing closer to 700. Maybe just a couple of major airlines slowing down is all it takes to start allowing everybody to catch up? Definitely still a great time to be a pilot.

spooldup 12-21-2023 07:13 PM


Originally Posted by planejoe (Post 3740128)
It was my understanding that this new model is not yet fully implemented so I don't know what they mean by "working so well". Sorry to hear that you're back in the pool, doesn't make sense as we have new airplane deliveries in Q1 and a boat load of people leaving every month.

Thats it. It isn't fully implemented... not even close. 3 bases went down in % of 1 day trips, only ONE base is above 50% 1 day trips, and that is DFW at 62%. Next closest base is ATL with 47%, but that is one of the bases that went down like 1% from December. The rest of the bases are all below 45%.

Oh, and that "commuting base" called MCO according to BB is down on both 3 and 4 day trips, and even then, only at 20% 3 days and a WHOPPING 1% 4 days.

DumboDrop 12-22-2023 02:46 AM


Originally Posted by spooldup (Post 3740300)
Thats it. It isn't fully implemented... not even close. 3 bases went down in % of 1 day trips, only ONE base is above 50% 1 day trips, and that is DFW at 62%. Next closest base is ATL with 47%, but that is one of the bases that went down like 1% from December. The rest of the bases are all below 45%.

Oh, and that "commuting base" called MCO according to BB is down on both 3 and 4 day trips, and even then, only at 20% 3 days and a WHOPPING 1% 4 days.

They aren't hiring for today. It takes 3-4 months to get someone through. They are anticipating what the need as far as crews for April/May.

GoCats67 12-22-2023 05:54 AM


Originally Posted by Dragonslayer69 (Post 3740143)
What is this going to do to upgrades? That is the last weak thread keeping me here.

Times have definitely changed (and will again I am sure)

Without question the fastest way to upgrade is to get hired at UA,AA,DL and upgrade there!

DumboDrop 12-22-2023 08:02 AM


Originally Posted by GoCats67 (Post 3740433)
Times have definitely changed (and will again I am sure)

Without question the fastest way to upgrade is to get hired at UA,AA,DL and upgrade there!

UA.

filler.

TurboFanMan 12-22-2023 10:04 AM


Originally Posted by planejoe (Post 3740128)
It was my understanding that this new model is not yet fully implemented so I don't know what they mean by "working so well". Sorry to hear that you're back in the pool, doesn't make sense as we have new airplane deliveries in Q1 and a boat load of people leaving every month.

I don’t see the implementation. Looking at the bid sheet for January ATL is still 50 percent turns and 50 percent multi day trips. Whoever wrote that memo is talking out their a**! 😂


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