I did no response on either


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Chasing the hope that something might be included in a new contract is just as foolish as chasing quick upgrades. Both can get you burned. Always take the bird in the hand......

Don't believe in new airplanes till you're sitting in the seat, upgrades till you're in the class, and improved contracts till you have the TA in your hand.

Even then don't count on it long term cause management will come after all of the above in the next economic downtown.....

 

FlyingKat the chances of Tsa being around in a few years is pretty low. We have very old planes much much older and more tired than any gojets or compass plane. If Hulas decides to get rid of an operation which one do you think he'll get rid of first? All the other regionals are focusing on 50+ seaters and getting rid of their 50 seat RJs. All I'm saying is go some place with a future. What good is your upgrade when you're looking at a potential downgrade?

 

They have been talking about the demise of TSA since the mid 90s. The realities of the pilot labor market will not allow them to just throw away a pilot group. Also even the most pessimistic forecasts out there admit there will still be a need for 50 seat aircraft, although it will be greatly reduced. I can remember working at NWA with forty year old aircraft so I get a laugh when people talk about ten or fifteen year old aircraft being "tired". One thing about these aircraft is the leases are very cheap compared to new ones. That worked out pretty well for NWA, and Delta is following the same path with older used aircraft due to cheaper costs.

We'll see where everyone is in five years. However the idea that TSA is just going to shut down and furlough all the pilots is laughable, given the need for pilots over the next five years.

 

A DC9 is built a hell of a lot tougher than any RJ and IIRC Delta tore those thing down quite a bit and refurbished them to keep em going.

 

Lol! First of all I'm comparing the erj with crj7 and 175 they're all plastic. DC9 was a different animal.

In the 90s and up to when gojets was started Tsa was a big and successful operation, don't know why anyone would think they would close shop. Times are different now, I'm not saying they'll get rid of the pilots(we have furlough protection) but they will get rid of the planes. And not because they want to but because they will no longer be a viable option. At a certain point our performance will go way down to where United will bring us back to 19 planes or worse. At that point we'll be on life support till the MRJ shows up.

 

From the business stand point the 145's are the least economical in Hulas's fleet. Add to that TSA is the most expensive pilot group under TSH. I don't think TSA pilots will ever get furloughed in this climate. I think it's foolish to think TSA's head isn't on the chopping block first. Either you guys are getting 175's as fleet replacements or they will make a push for as long as they can on the CHQ flying until the staffing dries up. Then there will be a draw down. Don't mistake those comments for TSA basing, it's not. It's economics of an expensive aircraft combined with an expensive pilot group.

Obviously, they would cannibalize the TSA pilot group way before a furlough. At Republic it doesn't seem to be an issue but those guys are all on one list. If they do roll TSA into Compass or GoJet, to say it will be a mess is an understatement of mega proportions.

Of course, all my thoughts are just thoughts and who knows what will really happen? Time will tell.

On another subject, there are some good points on here about contract issues. It's just a reminder that picking a "good" contract at a regional is a lot like choosing which turd stinks less. The cancel pay is a legitimate argument and you have to change your bid strategy. The poster above sounds like he is using his companies contract to benefit him. Well, the flip side is that here at GoJet you would be a fool to bid high credit in the winter. You just bid 75hr lines and don't worry about it. That's not an excuse to justify a weak spot in the contract. It's the remedy to keep from loosing money.

 

Since becoming a lineholder at TSA I have averaged 105 hours a month of credit. I'll take the extra 30 hours a month on my paycheck. For those of you in Rio Linda that is an extra a $1249 a month vs Gojet (34.76X105=3649.80 TSA vs 32X75=2400 Gojet) On year 2 pay. That is $14, 988 in extra year two pay alone. I didn't throw the year one numbers in because guys are spending more time on reserve. The Captains pay is even gaudier. There was a reserve CA who brought in $8500 in one month last summer before taxes. So as I said earlier, its pretty easy to see how you can blow through a five or ten thousand dollar hiring bonus on a substandard contract pretty quick.

I'll take the extra money and risk at TSA. TSA upgrade is faster than Gojet right now as well. The only airline displacing anyone right now is Endeavor because they can't staff due their substandard contract. I'd say the odds are better Gojet has to displace in the future do to a lack of new hires than TSA displacing due to a lack of work.

Make sure you understand the contract you will be working under and how you will get paid before deciding on a place to work. There are plenty of opportunities (not just TSA) that pay you well and have decent contracts. They are worth the extra time to get hired vs jumping on board with a substandard contract.

We'll see where we all are five years down the road. Hopefully these crazy mainline hiring numbers are true and we all will have moved on to better place.

 

Our current contract says we can be furloughed and have preferential hiring at compass or gojet with some longevity in pay. Seems like a cheaper option for the company to have you on a cheaper pay scale rather than merging the lists. I really don't think Tsa will be completely gone but I would be very surprised if were not smaller in a year or two. Especially if our performance keeps going down.,

 

The first carrier to furlough in the current hiring environment will cease to exist in the future. If TSA starts to furlough, it would be my guess than most FOs would be gone before year's end. Then as Captains were displaced back to FOs, they'd start jumping ship for LCCs or the like.

I know we all like to think otherwise, but management isn't stupid. They know this. Not to mention that if you can lease a 145 and it would cost you less per seat to fill it than a 175/700, the powers that be WILL utilize it. Mama United likes to put on a facade that they care about perform but let's all be 100% honest here. United couldn't care less about it as long as people keep buying tickets. They showed this during the winter months by canceling an obscene amount of flying. The only reason its tracked, in my opinion, is to help other carriers underbid but that's not the current environment. If it starts getting competitive again, TSA and Air Wis are in trouble...but this is a hiring free-for-all. Republic and Mesa, the typical underbidding companies, are focusing on Ejet hiring. As more 50 seaters come off lease, they will get even cheaper to fly which means any business saavy company can swoop in and fly them for next to nothing. Remember, Hulas is an Ivy League graduate. He may not be the nicest fellow to run an airline, but he surely isn't incompetant. He wants to make more money for himself and folding an operation would take a huge chunk away from his pocketbook.