rickair7777

So what, we've had autoland for a long time, they could have done it in the 1930's if they wanted to. Doesn't mean it's foolproof, redundant, hackproof, and can certified and insured to operate without adult supervision (all at a cost lower than that of humans).

Name User

Did you watch the video? You think this is just auto land?

In the 1930's, you could push one button and the aircraft would select, based on location and ground weather data, the best airport and runway to land at while plotting its own course around weather and terrain? While configuring itself, coming to a complete stop, and opening the door for the passengers? All while communicating to ATC and other aircraft?

rickair7777

What happens when it doesn't work right? The only answer for that is a human pilot. The challenges are not software and servos that can manipulate controls, it's about redundancy, certification (ie politics), infrastructure, liability, security, and the cost of all that. Currently the only redundancy for judgement is a human.

Generalized AI does not exist, nobody knows how to make it, or when they'll know how to make it. There are also very real concerns about the advisability (and perhaps morality) of developing a generalized AI. Concerns that are now actually showing up outside of academia.

The only path to replacing human pilot's judgement would be using AI tools to train a neural network type application to function as a human pilot. Such an app could perhaps be trained for many years (decades), and experience (directly or otherwise) 99.999% of problems confronted by pilots. It could then be "frozen" so as to be deterministic and thus certifiable, and then the frozen copy would have to be test flown in parallel with human safety pilots for many additional years before regulators would be happy. The economic risk is that if they find something wrong, they probably can't just tweak the code so the whole process would have to start all over from scratch. That's the only plausible path to unmanned airliners that a technically-informed person could come up with right now. When they start installing the frozen AI on all airliners to begin the data accumulation/test phase, then you'll have about ten years to switch careers. But the silver lining is that they'll have to pay big bonuses so pilots don't all get scared off and bail early, leaving them with uncertified autonomous airliners that can't be legally flown without us.

The timeline for that is further hindered by the uncertainty and financial risks... airline managers know how to make money with the current model. Why invest vast sums at vast risk to HOPEFULLY make even more profits for their successors in a few decades? They won't... managers and shareholders want to enjoy profits next quarter, not next century.

Also the chicken littles never consider the "human terrain". In addition to those pax who are too afraid to fly without a human, the global airline industry would likely literally collapse if air-framers, governments and airlines announced today that they are embarking on a manhattan project to replace human pilots. Why? Because no new entrants would embark on an aviation career, must less pay for their own training. Our career is a long game, and everybody knows it. Very quickly you wouldn't have any pilots under the age of 45 left. You could pay them (a lot, guaranteed up front) to stick around but that would kill your near-term profits. Again the real hurdle is uncertainty, vast upfront costs, and long but uncertain timeline for an ROI. Flying unmanned airliners would make perfect business sense. Developing them and testing them does not, unless the government really forces the issue, something they have no motive to do.

If you want to worry about something, worry about the eco-freaks who want to ban airliners. That's slightly more plausible. Actually what I worry about is if the antifa crowed realizes they can seriously reduce air travel via terrorism... bring down some airplanes, maybe mass shootings at crowded airports and the customers will be scared away. I'm not sure if the wanna-be eco-terrorists have the balls to commit capital crimes though, doubt it since even they know it would be delta force vice the FBI to come knocking on their door..

wannabee

^ what he said

Red Forman

I’m still waiting on you to provide examples of airliners and countries that are doing single pilot/pilotless operations.

takingmessages

Bump...

Software behind self-driving Uber crash didn't recognize jaywalkers

Software behind self-driving Uber crash didn't recognize jaywalkers

by Staff Writers
New York (AFP) Nov 6, 2019

An Uber self-driving car that struck and killed a woman last year in Arizona failed to recognize her as a pedestrian because she was jaywalking, US transport regulators said Tuesday.

The woman had been crossing the street "at a location without a crosswalk; the system design did not include a consideration for jaywalking pedestrians," the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said in a statement.

In a preliminary report, the NTSB had already determined that the car's software spotted the 49-year-old woman nearly six seconds before the vehicle hit her, as she walked across the street at night with her bicycle in Tempe, a suburb of Phoenix.

According to the latest report, which was issued ahead of a November 19 hearing to officially determine the accident's cause, the system at no time "classified her as a pedestrian" but rather, considered her an object.

When the software determined that a collision was imminent approximately 1.2 seconds before impact, it suppressed any "extreme braking or steering actions" to reduce the potential for erratic vehicle behavior.

It did, however, produce "an auditory alert to the vehicle operator as it initiated a plan for the vehicle slowdown."

Following the March 2018 accident, Uber suspended its autonomous driving testing in all locations in the United States but resumed the program several months later.

The company has assured the NTSB that new technology in the cars will correctly recognize pedestrians in similar situations and trigger braking more than four seconds before impact.

According to the report, 37 crashes involving Uber automatic test vehicles operating in autonomous mode occurred between September 2016 and March 2018, excluding the Arizona crash.

badflaps

"I'm sorry, I can't do that, Dave."

Name User

Article from Airbus

I think on a bigger picture viewpoint I feel like the world is passing me buy. Working on tech in this industry rather excites me. I didn't go to school for engineering though and to go back to school for four years...I just don't see that happening.

I know there are a lot of smart people here. Does anyone feel the same way? Or are you mostly satisfied with the status quo?

Name User

I think this Atlas crash is just another example of the needed push toward further automating aircraft and pushing pilots out of the active flying portion of it.

Generic Pilot

Clutch your buggy whips all you want, unmanned cargo is happening.
I am familiar with single engine turboprop operations starting in the near future in the United States.

What really impresses me is how "hush hush" the company and regulators are being.

Unmanned cargo is coming very soon (within the next few years).
Single pilot passenger for all size aircraft is not as far off as you think.