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SEPTEMBER 15, 2025 6:29 PM CET
BY GABRIEL GAVIN, VICTOR JACK, ANTONIA ZIMMERMANN AND CAMILLE GIJSIf Donald Trump is going to slap sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, there are a few things he’d like his European allies to do first.

In a social media post this weekend, the U.S. president said he’d be ready to “go” when all NATO nations stop buying oil from Russia. He also said countries belonging to the Western military alliance should place tariffs on China of between 50 percent and 100 percent until the end of the war.

The demand follows a visit to Brussels by U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, in which Trump’s envoy urged the EU to wean itself off Russian energy, and a lopsided trade deal in July in which the bloc pledged to buy $750 billion of U.S. oil and gas by the end of his term.
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The EU must kick Russian oil

Difficulty: Medium

For most EU countries, this isn’t too hard an ask.

Imports of Russian oil to the EU have plummeted after the bloc banned imports by sea following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Before the war in 2021, the bloc imported 45 percent of its natural gas and 27 percent of its crude oil from Russia. Last year, that share dropped to 19 percent for gas and 3 percent for oil. In 2024, the EU forked out €21.9 billion for Russian fossil fuels, accounting for roughly 10 percent of Russia’s total global export revenues.

Hungary and Slovakia’s insistence that they need Russian oil makes further progress difficult. The two countries were granted a temporary exemption allowing them to continue to bring in fuel via the Druzhba pipeline running through Ukraine.
Though the carve-out was intended to provide Budapest and Bratislava time to find alternative suppliers, the two countries instead increased their purchases from Russia— cashing in on discounted oil. That has left both countries dependent on Russian imports.

"Hungary increased its Russian crude reliance from 61 percent pre-invasion to 86 percent in 2024, and Slovakia remained almost 100 percent dependent on supply from Moscow,” according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

“Disconnecting from Russian energy sources would have very serious consequences for both the Slovak and European economies,” said a spokesperson from Slovakia’s foreign ministry. “Therefore, we actively oppose this proposal.”

NATO also needs to stop buying Russian oil

Difficulty: Hard

In expanding his demand from the EU to all NATO allies, Trump has thrown a Turkey-shaped wrench into the mix.

Turkey, a critical NATO ally with a unique strategic location controlling access to the Black Sea, has refused to sign up to Western restrictions on trade with Russia. Instead, the country has cashed in by reexporting billions of euros of Russian oil to Europe and elsewhere.

“It's not very realistic and … highly improbable that Turkey would comply with such a request at this point in time,” said Sinan Ülgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank and a former Turkish diplomat.

It would likely take considerable pressure from Trump to get Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to change course. The country is in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, with high energy prices driving discontent and threatening his continued hold on power.

Last year, Turkey got 41 percent of its gas imports from Russia, according to Aura Sabadus, a senior energy analyst at the ICIS consultancy. The country imported 57 percent of its oil from Moscow, said Homayoun Falakshahi, lead crude analyst at the Kpler commodities firm.

NATO itself is unlikely to play any role in ending imports, said a senior NATO diplomat. Policies on “buying Russian oil and gas and Europe introducing tariffs belong to the EU,” the diplomat said.

The EU must slap tariffs on China

Difficulty: Forget about it

This one’s just not going to happen.

Politically and economically, slapping tariffs on Beijing would be a death blow for the EU.

Over the past decades, the EU economy has become increasingly intertwined with China’s, with consumers growing accustomed to cheap imports. And while the bloc has pledged to reduce its dependence on China, crucial sectors of the economy — from German carmakers to French wine sellers and Italian fashion houses — rely on the country for large parts of their production and sales.

China is the EU’s third-largest trading partner for goods and services — after the U.S. and the U.K. — and its second-largest for goods alone, after the U.S. The country accounts for some 21 percent of EU imports. Beijing has also shown it won’t shy from responding forcefully to any EU provocation.

​​​​​Three diplomats who spoke to POLITICO said discussions on the EU’s 19th sanctions package, expected on Friday, included the potential addition of Chinese companies to the target list. But that falls well short of Trump’s tariff demand, and Chinese companies that have been added in the past have failed to satisfy the U.S. president.

Trump discussed the package with with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday evening. Posting online about the call, she said the new sanctions measures would target "crypto, banks, and energy." Her post didn't mention China.

EU diplomats are steeled for the U.S. president to be unimpressed with their efforts, and even suspect that he may be laying a trap for them.

They fear that Trump’s demands over the weekend — particularly the call for tariffs, which the EU sees as impossible — could be a stratagem to stall action against Russia and flip the blame onto NATO allies for failing to take the tough action required to end the war.

“Some of [Trump’s message] makes sense. Some of it is inventing reasons not to do anything,” said one EU official, granted anonymity, like others in this piece, to speak on a highly sensitive topic.

That view was echoed by a national official from a European state. “Trump is setting conditions which, later on, knowing that it’s impossible, will form a pretext for telling us that he can’t do anything. Put quite simply, it’s a game to avoid responsibility,” the person said.
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Behind the scenes, however, EU diplomats and officials are adamant that slapping tariffs on China — as well as India, as Trump suggested last week — is a political and economic no-go.

“No trade with China and India? We would drown. What would be left of us?” said a fifth European diplomat.

A sixth added: “Even if we give in to the demand and take the big risk, there’s no guarantee that the U.S. will follow suit.”

Historically, Brussels has distinguished between tariffs, which are considered a trade tool, and sanctions, viewed as a foreign policy tool.

While its approach has shifted over the past years, especially towards Russia, several diplomats raised concerns over the compatibility of tariffs as a foreign policy measure — as envisaged by Trump — with EU law.

What’s more, EU countries vary greatly in just how hard they think the bloc should hit Beijing, given its economic dependence on the Asian powerhouse.

Despite repeated pledges to diversify away from China, it still accounts for some 21 percent of EU imports. Berlin, whose economy is particularly intertwined with Beijing’s, has historically called for caution for fear of major damage to critical sectors, such as its automotive industry.
Brussels is therefore looking to make more use of targeted export controls on Chinese firms — for instance, those selling military technology to Russia — as it has done in earlier sanctions packages.

The problem there, said Agathe Demarais from the European Council on Foreign Relations, is that “once you impose sanctions on these firms, they will reopen under another name.”

“It’s really a Whack-A-Mole game,” she said.