Notable developments in Russo-Ukraine War 2
#271
russias failed offensive
Russia entered spring expecting another grinding advance across Ukraine’s front lines. It burned through tens of thousands of troops for marginal territorial gains instead, while Ukrainian drone warfare has been steadily dismantling Russia’s logistics, reserves, and offensive momentum. The first third of 2026 proved difficult for the Russian army, with only minimal advances. Considering that Ukraine managed to liberate between 400 and 500 square kilometers of territory in February and March, the effectiveness of Moscow’s operations can be called into question altogether: January through April 2026 became Russia’s worst period since 2023, and after an active 2025, it can be described as a failure. The trend is also worsening.
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DONATE NOW“Russian forces have failed to achieve any significant operational progress over the past year,” despite continued offensive operations across multiple sectors of the front, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on May 10.
Russia occupied even less territory in April than in March—about 300 square kilometers in total over the two months, Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) project DeepState reported. The largest advance was in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces captured 53 square kilometers. For context, over the past month, Russia suffered its heaviest losses precisely in the Donetsk sector—more than 25,000 killed and wounded. That is 471 troops per square kilometer. DeepState says each square kilometer of captured territory costs Russia 36 assaults.
Ukraine still controls about 7,000 square kilometers of territory in the Donetsk region. Based on April’s statistics, capturing these territories would take decades—and cost millions of casualties.
The situation continued in April: over the month, Russian losses exceeded 35,000 troops, bringing the two-month total to more than 70,000. Should the trend continue—and daily reports from Ukraine’s General Staff indicate that it is continuing—total Russian army losses by the end of spring could exceed 100,000 troops.
Infographic shows losses of Russian army in spring 2026. (Illustration: UNITED24 Media)At the moment, however, these losses do not appear justified for Russia: occupation forces cannot claim any serious results from their offensives. Meanwhile, the number of assaults increased by 2.2% in April compared with March.
Moreover, one-third of the captured territories are border areas in the Sumy region, where Russian military groups entered in recent months: overall, 44 square kilometers have been captured there. Minor advances, involving the capture of several villages, were recorded in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, while almost all of the Dnipropetrovsk region has been liberated.
The statistics are unforgiving for the Russian army: the spring offensive campaign has been disrupted, despite record losses of manpower and equipment.
In recent months, Ukraine has also begun actively deploying so-called Middle Strike attacks—drones that fly up to 200 kilometers deep. These strikes make it possible to destroy ammunition depots, weapons arsenals, drone and equipment storage sites, and to attack command posts. The middle Strike strategy has shaken Russian logistics, forcing equipment farther back from the border and lengthening logistics routes—for example, troops now take longer to reach their positions.
Thanks to Middle Strike, Ukrainian forces can now even strike Mariupol, through which, among other things, runs the land corridor to Crimea and to Ukraine’s occupied southern territories. This creates additional transport challenges for the Russian army and further complicates logistics.
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Russia is now preparing for a new offensive campaign—the summer one. But it faces a new challenge: manpower. In recent months, recruiting new soldiers has become harder. Information that the life cycle of a Russian soldier may be measured in weeks has already reached every region of Russia, where people understand very well that even if they receive a payment worth tens of thousands of dollars, it is a one-way trip.
Russia’s Failed 2026 Spring Offensive Cost It Nearly 100,000 Troops as Ukraine Retakes Ground
We bring you stories from the ground. Your support keeps our team in the field.
DONATE NOW“Russian forces have failed to achieve any significant operational progress over the past year,” despite continued offensive operations across multiple sectors of the front, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on May 10.
Russia occupied even less territory in April than in March—about 300 square kilometers in total over the two months, Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) project DeepState reported. The largest advance was in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces captured 53 square kilometers. For context, over the past month, Russia suffered its heaviest losses precisely in the Donetsk sector—more than 25,000 killed and wounded. That is 471 troops per square kilometer. DeepState says each square kilometer of captured territory costs Russia 36 assaults.
Ukraine still controls about 7,000 square kilometers of territory in the Donetsk region. Based on April’s statistics, capturing these territories would take decades—and cost millions of casualties.
Disrupting the offensive campaign
UNITED24 Media previously reported that Russia’s March offensive campaign had failed: in the middle of the month, Russia organized a dozen assaults on different sections of the front—and all of them were destroyed. In three days, losses surpassed 5,000 troops killed and wounded, while various Ukrainian units reported record enemy losses in their sections of the front.The situation continued in April: over the month, Russian losses exceeded 35,000 troops, bringing the two-month total to more than 70,000. Should the trend continue—and daily reports from Ukraine’s General Staff indicate that it is continuing—total Russian army losses by the end of spring could exceed 100,000 troops.
Moreover, one-third of the captured territories are border areas in the Sumy region, where Russian military groups entered in recent months: overall, 44 square kilometers have been captured there. Minor advances, involving the capture of several villages, were recorded in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, while almost all of the Dnipropetrovsk region has been liberated.
The statistics are unforgiving for the Russian army: the spring offensive campaign has been disrupted, despite record losses of manpower and equipment.
0–200 km
The slowdown in Russia’s advance is attributed to the saturation of the line of contact with drones. But it would be incorrect to point only to FPV drones, even though they are indeed responsible today for more than 90% of the Russian army's losses.In recent months, Ukraine has also begun actively deploying so-called Middle Strike attacks—drones that fly up to 200 kilometers deep. These strikes make it possible to destroy ammunition depots, weapons arsenals, drone and equipment storage sites, and to attack command posts. The middle Strike strategy has shaken Russian logistics, forcing equipment farther back from the border and lengthening logistics routes—for example, troops now take longer to reach their positions.
Thanks to Middle Strike, Ukrainian forces can now even strike Mariupol, through which, among other things, runs the land corridor to Crimea and to Ukraine’s occupied southern territories. This creates additional transport challenges for the Russian army and further complicates logistics.
Read more
Russia is now preparing for a new offensive campaign—the summer one. But it faces a new challenge: manpower. In recent months, recruiting new soldiers has become harder. Information that the life cycle of a Russian soldier may be measured in weeks has already reached every region of Russia, where people understand very well that even if they receive a payment worth tens of thousands of dollars, it is a one-way trip.
Now there is no longer a well defined FEBA, but a area stretching 10s of kilometers in depth of increasing lethality, sometimes with opposing forces pretty much interspersed, with a lot of casualties on both sides for very little gain.
But demographics still matters and Ukraine was on the short end of the demographic battle to begin with and still is. Zelensky has recently ordered new procedures to try to rotate people off the (now greatly expanded) FEBA sooner to avoid burning them out, and giving the troops who volunteered early on a fixed date for them to end their service if they choose.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insig...1&ocid=iehp%24
How successful he is at those reforms may tell the tale on whether or not Ukraine can sustain their military effectiveness despite their far smaller numbers of volunteers and conscripts and the growing resistance to conscripting.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/uk...-conscription/
#272
MAY 13, 2026 6:51 PM CET
BY HANNE COKELAEREMost Europeans are overwhelmingly opposed to having a U.S. military base in their country, but Poland is a clear outlier with a majority favoring a larger American presence, according to new polling.
That matters following Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw at least 5,000 U.S. soldiers from Germany in response to Berlin’s criticism over the war on Iran. Governments in Poland, the Baltic countries and Romania are all angling to see if some U.S. troops could be redeployed to their territory.
But in many countries, public support for the idea is mixed — except for Poland.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poll...ilitary-bases/
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BY HANNE COKELAEREMost Europeans are overwhelmingly opposed to having a U.S. military base in their country, but Poland is a clear outlier with a majority favoring a larger American presence, according to new polling.
That matters following Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw at least 5,000 U.S. soldiers from Germany in response to Berlin’s criticism over the war on Iran. Governments in Poland, the Baltic countries and Romania are all angling to see if some U.S. troops could be redeployed to their territory.
But in many countries, public support for the idea is mixed — except for Poland.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poll...ilitary-bases/
Almost 51 percent of Polish respondents favored having a U.S. military base in the country while just 23 percent were opposed, according to a survey for the annual Democracy Perception Index that was carried out in March and April across 98 countries, including 17 in the EU.
The result sets Poland apart from other European countries covered in the survey, most of which reported significant opposition to U.S. military bases on their turf. It also offers public support for Polish President Karol Nawrocki's effort to encourage the Trump administration to redeploy some troops to Poland.
When asked earlier this week about relocating some U.S. forces to Poland, Trump replied that "it's possible," stressing his very good relations with Nawrocki, whom he called, “a great fighter, a terrific guy.”
Romania was the only other country in Europe where a slim plurality of respondents favored American bases, but it's far more divided on the topic than Poland.
The result sets Poland apart from other European countries covered in the survey, most of which reported significant opposition to U.S. military bases on their turf. It also offers public support for Polish President Karol Nawrocki's effort to encourage the Trump administration to redeploy some troops to Poland.
When asked earlier this week about relocating some U.S. forces to Poland, Trump replied that "it's possible," stressing his very good relations with Nawrocki, whom he called, “a great fighter, a terrific guy.”
Romania was the only other country in Europe where a slim plurality of respondents favored American bases, but it's far more divided on the topic than Poland.

#273
Latvian prime minister quits after backlash over stray Ukrainian drone strikes
“At this moment, political jealousy and narrow party interests have taken precedence over responsibility,” says exiting Evika Siliņa.https://www.politico.eu/article/latv...drone-strikes/
MAY 14, 2026 12:15 PM CET
BY MATHIEU POLLETLatvia’s center-right Prime Minister Evika Siliņa said Thursday she would resign, after her left-wing coalition partner withdrew its support for her in response to the firing of one of its ministers.
“I am stepping down, but I am not giving up,” she said on X. The government will continue its duties until a new Cabinet of Ministers is approved. Siliņa had been serving as Prime Minister since September 2023.
The left-wing Progressives party said Wednesday it would no longer support the coalition after Siliņa dismissed Progressives Defense Minister Andris Sprūds on Sunday, over an incident in which two stray Ukrainian drones hit the Baltic state’s oil facilities.
Siliņa then appointed Latvian army Col. Raivis Melnis as a replacement, but the Progressives’ withdrawal left Siliņa’s New Unity alliance without a parliamentary majority.
Latvia, like its Baltic neighbors Estonia and Lithuania, has been on high alert since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, warning that spillovers from the war could test NATO’s eastern flank.
“At this moment, political jealousy and narrow party interests have taken precedence over responsibility,” Silina said Thursday, adding that “political windbags chose not a solution, but a crisis.”
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs previously said he would meet with all parliamentary parties on Friday, “given the political situation of the country.”
BY MATHIEU POLLETLatvia’s center-right Prime Minister Evika Siliņa said Thursday she would resign, after her left-wing coalition partner withdrew its support for her in response to the firing of one of its ministers.
“I am stepping down, but I am not giving up,” she said on X. The government will continue its duties until a new Cabinet of Ministers is approved. Siliņa had been serving as Prime Minister since September 2023.
The left-wing Progressives party said Wednesday it would no longer support the coalition after Siliņa dismissed Progressives Defense Minister Andris Sprūds on Sunday, over an incident in which two stray Ukrainian drones hit the Baltic state’s oil facilities.
Siliņa then appointed Latvian army Col. Raivis Melnis as a replacement, but the Progressives’ withdrawal left Siliņa’s New Unity alliance without a parliamentary majority.
Latvia, like its Baltic neighbors Estonia and Lithuania, has been on high alert since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, warning that spillovers from the war could test NATO’s eastern flank.
“At this moment, political jealousy and narrow party interests have taken precedence over responsibility,” Silina said Thursday, adding that “political windbags chose not a solution, but a crisis.”
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs previously said he would meet with all parliamentary parties on Friday, “given the political situation of the country.”
#274
Really interesting WSJ article, but it’s behind a paywall. The Ukraine war has mostly snuffed out the job of snipers.
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/mil...85a271?mod=mhp
“A Ukrainian special-forces sniper claimed a world record in late 2023 with a shot that hit a Russian officer almost 2½ miles away.
These days Vyacheslav Kovalskiy has a new job: supporting drone pilots. He hasn’t been out to shoot in more than a year and a half.
Small drones that are cheap and can be rigged with explosives have changed the face of warfare in Ukraine, pushing some traditional military roles down the billing. Spotters who call in artillery strikes are no longer needed. Tank crews have lost their swagger as their vehicles are top targets for aerial craft.
Unmanned vehicles are particularly suited to the sniper’s two main tasks of reconnaissance and targeted killing. Their key advantages include their bigger visual range, maneuverability and expendability: If the mission fails, the loss is a craft worth thousands of dollars rather than a life.“
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/mil...85a271?mod=mhp
“A Ukrainian special-forces sniper claimed a world record in late 2023 with a shot that hit a Russian officer almost 2½ miles away.
These days Vyacheslav Kovalskiy has a new job: supporting drone pilots. He hasn’t been out to shoot in more than a year and a half.
Small drones that are cheap and can be rigged with explosives have changed the face of warfare in Ukraine, pushing some traditional military roles down the billing. Spotters who call in artillery strikes are no longer needed. Tank crews have lost their swagger as their vehicles are top targets for aerial craft.
Unmanned vehicles are particularly suited to the sniper’s two main tasks of reconnaissance and targeted killing. Their key advantages include their bigger visual range, maneuverability and expendability: If the mission fails, the loss is a craft worth thousands of dollars rather than a life.“
#276
Really interesting WSJ article, but it’s behind a paywall. The Ukraine war has mostly snuffed out the job of snipers.
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/mil...85a271?mod=mhp
“A Ukrainian special-forces sniper claimed a world record in late 2023 with a shot that hit a Russian officer almost 2½ miles away.
These days Vyacheslav Kovalskiy has a new job: supporting drone pilots. He hasn’t been out to shoot in more than a year and a half.
Small drones that are cheap and can be rigged with explosives have changed the face of warfare in Ukraine, pushing some traditional military roles down the billing. Spotters who call in artillery strikes are no longer needed. Tank crews have lost their swagger as their vehicles are top targets for aerial craft.
Unmanned vehicles are particularly suited to the sniper’s two main tasks of reconnaissance and targeted killing. Their key advantages include their bigger visual range, maneuverability and expendability: If the mission fails, the loss is a craft worth thousands of dollars rather than a life.“
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/mil...85a271?mod=mhp
“A Ukrainian special-forces sniper claimed a world record in late 2023 with a shot that hit a Russian officer almost 2½ miles away.
These days Vyacheslav Kovalskiy has a new job: supporting drone pilots. He hasn’t been out to shoot in more than a year and a half.
Small drones that are cheap and can be rigged with explosives have changed the face of warfare in Ukraine, pushing some traditional military roles down the billing. Spotters who call in artillery strikes are no longer needed. Tank crews have lost their swagger as their vehicles are top targets for aerial craft.
Unmanned vehicles are particularly suited to the sniper’s two main tasks of reconnaissance and targeted killing. Their key advantages include their bigger visual range, maneuverability and expendability: If the mission fails, the loss is a craft worth thousands of dollars rather than a life.“
And simple, inexpensive, effective methods are adapted by BOTH sides. Russia may not have innovated drone warfare nut they too are rushing to catch up:
.https://kyivindependent.com/russias-...e-magyar-says/
an excerpt:
Russia 'ripping off' Ukraine's drone forces success, Unmanned Systems Forces commander says
May 14, 2026 3:18 pm• 3 min read
#278
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2022
Posts: 2,278
Likes: 441
dude, he is literally being paid to make sure russia is looking good on this board. There is no other answer.
BUt RussSIA IS doINg IT tOo!!!
doesnt even attempt to understand the vast difference in drone capabilities that is easily discerned with just a little in depth research. But then that would be pushing a balanced narrative and we cant have that, can we vlad?
BUt RussSIA IS doINg IT tOo!!!
doesnt even attempt to understand the vast difference in drone capabilities that is easily discerned with just a little in depth research. But then that would be pushing a balanced narrative and we cant have that, can we vlad?
#279
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,517
Likes: 143
dude, he is literally being paid to make sure russia is looking good on this board. There is no other answer.
BUt RussSIA IS doINg IT tOo!!!
doesnt even attempt to understand the vast difference in drone capabilities that is easily discerned with just a little in depth research. But then that would be pushing a balanced narrative and we cant have that, can we vlad?
BUt RussSIA IS doINg IT tOo!!!
doesnt even attempt to understand the vast difference in drone capabilities that is easily discerned with just a little in depth research. But then that would be pushing a balanced narrative and we cant have that, can we vlad?
#280
dude, he is literally being paid to make sure russia is looking good on this board. There is no other answer.
BUt RussSIA IS doINg IT tOo!!!
doesnt even attempt to understand the vast difference in drone capabilities that is easily discerned with just a little in depth research. But then that would be pushing a balanced narrative and we cant have that, can we vlad?
BUt RussSIA IS doINg IT tOo!!!
doesnt even attempt to understand the vast difference in drone capabilities that is easily discerned with just a little in depth research. But then that would be pushing a balanced narrative and we cant have that, can we vlad?
I posted an article from a Ukrainian newspaper interview with the chief of Ukraine’s Unmanned Forces, a man who has become synonymous with Ukrainian drone capabilities who is also under indictment by Russia for his activities.
In February 2022, shortly before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Brovdi joined the Territorial Defence Forces of Ukraine, where he was assigned to the 206th Battalion of the 241st Brigade.[13][14] During the Kyiv offensive, he took part in the evacuation of civilians from Irpin during the battle for the city, and took part in fighting in Bucha and Borodianka.[13][15] In late April, his unit was sent to the front line in the Kherson area of the southern campaign.[13][15]
After some time, Brovdi decided that he could be doing more with his entrepreneurial skills instead of "sitting in a sodden trench".[15] Against bureaucratic procedure,[13] he raised funds on his own to buy a "fleet of drones", with which he set up the aerial reconnaissance unit "Madyar's Birds". The unit was a part of the 28th Mechanized Brigade from April to August 2022.[15][16] The unit is composed of "a few dozen" pilots, with hundreds of drones.[2] Like much of the Ukrainian army, the drones used by the unit are the Chinese-made civilian DJI Mavics.[17][18] The unit is involved in five primary types of drone reconnaissance: locating enemy forces, patrolling the front line, artillery spotting, attacks with kamikaze drones, and occasionally dropping explosive devices on enemy soldiers.[13][15]
Madyar's Birds were incorporated into the 59th Motorized Brigade in August 2022,[16] and took part in the battle of Bakhmut[2] until March 2023, when Brovdi said in a video posted to social media that the unit had been ordered to withdraw after "110 days" of fighting.[3]
In April 2023, Brovdi warned that the Chinese government may cut off Ukrainian military access to the Mavic drones, and urged Ukrainian soldiers to be careful with the drones they had.[19]
Shoulder sleeve insignia of 414th Strike UAV Battalion "Madyar's Birds"Madyar's Birds often releases videos of their "greatest successes" on the battlefield, which feature Russian soldiers dying, which journalists have described as having "undoubtable propagandavalue".[17][20] Brovdi has become a popular figure in Ukraine among "war-watchers" on social media for his "salty analogies and metaphors shrouded in black humor" and "colorful western Ukrainianisms" in his narration of videos he publishes of his unit's activities.[15]
Brovdi was awarded the medal "For the Defense of Ukraine [[url=https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%92%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0_% D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1 %82%D0%B0_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D0% B8_%C2%AB%D0%97%D0%B0_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0% BE%D0%BD%D1%83_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%B D%D0%B8%C2%BB]uk]" by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 28 August 2023[21] and the Hero of Ukraine on 8 May 2025.[22]
The Madyar's Birds unit has been taking part in the fighting in and around Krynkysince at least November 2023.[23] On 16 January 2024, Brovdi announced on his Telegram channel that Madyar's Birds had been incorporated into the Ukrainian Marine Corps as the 414th Marine Strike UAV Battalion.[14][24]
He was appointed commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces on 3 June 2025.
After some time, Brovdi decided that he could be doing more with his entrepreneurial skills instead of "sitting in a sodden trench".[15] Against bureaucratic procedure,[13] he raised funds on his own to buy a "fleet of drones", with which he set up the aerial reconnaissance unit "Madyar's Birds". The unit was a part of the 28th Mechanized Brigade from April to August 2022.[15][16] The unit is composed of "a few dozen" pilots, with hundreds of drones.[2] Like much of the Ukrainian army, the drones used by the unit are the Chinese-made civilian DJI Mavics.[17][18] The unit is involved in five primary types of drone reconnaissance: locating enemy forces, patrolling the front line, artillery spotting, attacks with kamikaze drones, and occasionally dropping explosive devices on enemy soldiers.[13][15]
Madyar's Birds were incorporated into the 59th Motorized Brigade in August 2022,[16] and took part in the battle of Bakhmut[2] until March 2023, when Brovdi said in a video posted to social media that the unit had been ordered to withdraw after "110 days" of fighting.[3]
In April 2023, Brovdi warned that the Chinese government may cut off Ukrainian military access to the Mavic drones, and urged Ukrainian soldiers to be careful with the drones they had.[19]
Brovdi was awarded the medal "For the Defense of Ukraine [[url=https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%92%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0_% D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1 %82%D0%B0_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D0% B8_%C2%AB%D0%97%D0%B0_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0% BE%D0%BD%D1%83_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%B D%D0%B8%C2%BB]uk]" by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 28 August 2023[21] and the Hero of Ukraine on 8 May 2025.[22]
The Madyar's Birds unit has been taking part in the fighting in and around Krynkysince at least November 2023.[23] On 16 January 2024, Brovdi announced on his Telegram channel that Madyar's Birds had been incorporated into the Ukrainian Marine Corps as the 414th Marine Strike UAV Battalion.[14][24]
He was appointed commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces on 3 June 2025.
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