I am only offering my projected expectations of the future based upon my study and experience of the past. Anything could in fact happen. Things could be not so bad or they could be fantastically worse than even I can imagine. However if you were to study the history of aviation and attempt to project its path into the future is in not a very happy place.

It seems to me that every 20 to 25 years there is a boom in aviation to be followed by a sharp and hard downturn that takes most of the next 20 years to recover from. Pilots who were hired just a year ago have much better future prospects than guys who are trying to get their first instructing jobs today.

Last year regionals were trolling flight schools for pilots. In the mid 1990's new hire commuter airline classes were mostly populated by high time learjet captains and military superstars. Those times are due to return.

SkyHigh

 

Parker pen time will also make a huge comeback. As pilots languish on the sidelines it will become hugely tempting to pencil whip their logbooks in order to get ahead. Those with solid morals will be tested as they watch those with flexable values get ahead.

Skyhigh

 

I bet that the Future Airline Pilots of America and Kit Darby make some kind of a comeback. AirJobs Digest and other pilot employment companies will resurface.

SkyHigh

 

He already is... shilling for ATP!

ATP Flight School: Industry Information from Kit Darby

 

"In the mid 1990's new hire commuter airline classes were mostly populated by high time learjet captains and military superstars."

I don't understand why Sky recalls the past so differently than I do. I was there, and I personally helped a Mesa guy and a Horizon guy get hired at UPS in that era. Majors hired lots of regional guys, and regionals hired lots of 135 freight guys, not just "Lear Capts and military superstars" as Sky claims.

 

Sorry Sky - but I think this is a very inaccurate assessment. I think that you look at the HISTORY of aviation - and how far we have come in short a short period of time there is nothing but wonderment and success! Maybe you meant a history of the AIRLINE business.

USMCFLYR

 

as you look over the period of aviation, everything was hard and has slowly becoming more obtainable.


<--------- my .00 i don't have two cents

 

I hate to admit it but Sky is right. It almost took an act of congress to get a commuter job 94-96.I remember 'cause that is when I got my first commuter job and was lucky to get it at 1500TT.
DE, the guys you helped get on at UPS, how long had they been at the commuters? Because you needed that experience to move on.

 

There is a big difference between 1500 total and "military superstar". One guy I helped out was no more than a Horizon F/O who was at Airpac before that. No PIC turbine. The other was a Mesa checkairman. He didn't even have to wait in the pool cause he interviewed so well.

Like I said, I think there is a big difference between ATP mins and what Sky refers to as a "military superstar". YMMV....

 

Heyas Guys,

I was a CFI during the lean years of early 1990s.

Yes there were some airlines that were pay to play. I remember Kiwi, where you had to own a 50k or so stock stake.

The pay for training thing had gotten rolling as far back as 1988...I remember an article in Flying magazine talking about the Flightsafety program that TWExpress had going for Metroliners.

Times were a bit different. %99 of the pilots paid their dues CFIing until 1200/200, then then flew checks for a year. Then they went to a 135 commuter job flying metros, jballs or 1900s, usually based in places like East Butthole, Minnesota. Times to get on at a GOOD commuter, like Henson, or Horizon were 3000/1000 with at least SOME previous 135 time, and time to upgrade was 4 years, but they had a great contract (A-fund, crew meals, etc).

I see a lot of problems going forward. The era of the medium sized mom-n-pop flight school, where they might have had 15-25 CFIs and a decent sized fleet, where you could log 65-85 hours a month is done.

The age of the small commuter is done. Who flys turboprops these days? Great Lakes and very few others. Anyone remember GP Express? Air New England? Crown?

Air21 and the collapse of the big 3 has laid waste to the piston overnight market, and many of those aircraft will be disposed of and no one is building new piston twins or light twin turboprops (Conquests, etc).

Tough times ahead...

Nu