My opinion is that we are looking at the beginning of the next pilot shortage. Because of all the factors mentioned in this thread, difficulty time building, training being cost prohibitive, quality of life of a pilot is crap, rocky industry, etc, the number of pilots being trained is dropping.

Right now, we are a dime a dozen. But, in time the old farts will retire and movement will begin. It'll take time to soak everyone who wants it up into the ranks, but eventually, we are likely to see a severe shortage.

Keep in mind that the population is growing quickly. There will be more and more people to fly as time goes by.

This says nothing for whether the career will ever be a worthy pursuit. But, as for raw numbers, I do believe this is on the horizon. Perhaps multi-crew training is the answer - and of course that will spell the end of what dignity actually remains.

 

Ya know you would think that there was a bottom to the well of pilots however no matter how bad things get they just keep on coming. Every new generation seems to think that things for them will somehow be different. Embry Riddle still cranks them out by the boat load. And, lower wages do not seem to scare them off.

Lately it has been easy to forget that we are still facing a global oil and climate crisis. I think that in the near future those factors will cut demand for air travel and we will begin to see the peak. It can not just keep growing. Most people on these forums are in their 20's. It is highly unlikely that we will still have a robust and affordable system of air travel by the time they are of retirement age.

SkyHigh

 

Yes - as soon as transporters come on-line - air travel is dead. Until then - I doubt that we will be returnig to the horse and buggy mode of travel.

USMCFLYR

 

Even with transporters, there's gonna be a few flight crew jobs left.Apple - Trailers - Star Trek - Trailer 2 - Large

 

I don't think that we could return to horse and buggy but it could look a lot like air travel did in the late 1970's. Back then air travel was very expensive. Few people were able to fly and when they did it was over long distances. The industry was a third the size of what it is now.

SKyhigh

 

 

Kilgore,

Thanks !! That is a great picture. Those were the days.

Skyhigh

 

THEN BRING BACK THE GOLDEN DAYS!
(and I'm referring to the picture!)

Kilgore - I'm a champion of pilots in the future. I've said it before on these threads that I've never seen a futuristic movie that didn't have someone PILOTING a spaceship around.

USMCFLYR

PS - Flying from SD to OKC yesterday on CA - all FAs were either over 50 or male. Really good service from the crews. Very impressed!

 

Heyas Sky,

While I don't buy into the oil/climate stuff, such is the glut of pilots on the market now that it will take decades to wash through.

We are entering a period of economic stagnation that will take at least 8-10 years before you see any meaningful stabilization in the industry.

The few decent flying jobs that become available will attract the few military pilots that insist on doing it for a career. The very slow trickle of GA pilots will fill the rest, but due to the current glut, the experience bar is going to be VERY high and the compensation relatively low. It will be for the hard core only.

Nu

 

I agree. It will be a long time before things get any better.

Skyhigh