Mason32

The collegiate flights schools are closing and downsizing all over the country. The foreign carriers are paying $150k for EMB135 drivers and they're having a hard time filling it.

Regionals are already canceling flight for lack if crews, offering hiring bonus money, and creating hook ups with the few remaining collegiate programs.

There won't be a legacy pilot shortage; we'll just hire from the regionals. The regionals however will have nobody to replace them as they leave.

The pilot shortage is real, and its here already just starting. Keep listening to management propaganda claiming there isn't a problem. Go on YouTube and watch the RAA meeting where the CEO of one of the largest wholly owned admitted the next 4-5 years will be very difficult.

Rnav

My take(for as little as its worth) is you will see the airlines petition for an increase in age limits, increased lobbying or an actual repeal of the 1500 rule and larger aircraft on property. All which do not increase QOL or pay for pilots. Viola no pilot shortage.

Apokleros

It all sounds too good to be true, Mason....

SJUflyer

IMHO, I do think a shortage in some sectors of the industry will occur, but not as massive as stated by many.Again the economy, companies discipline and the market are unpredictable, u might be right mason, but I'm still looking at other factors, lets all hope u r right.....

Outlaw2097

Middle portion of part two makes him sound too 'Murican. Other cultures are different...welcome to the global community.

One cannot argue against the fact that there will be a large bank of 250 hour commercial wonders will get bitter and leave before reaching 1500.

The only saving grace those big name flights schools is to get that legislation through bumping ATP mins to 1000. Even at that, they cash in on the four years of training and tdont care when they wash out. Their part of the equation is secure.

Sr. Barco

Very nicely done videos.

I guess it all comes down to how you define shortage. There are 20,000 scheduled age 65 retirements in the next 10 years alone. That is equal to 1,818 airframes at 11 pilots/aircraft. Is it plausible the airlines will park 1,818 aircraft and hire no one? Let's assume the fleet stays static and 50% of these pilots come from the regionals. Will there be 1,000 ATP qualified pilots available every single year for the next 10 years willing to work at poverty wages to replace those leaving the regionals? Are there 1,000 pilots a year willing and able to leave the military every single year for the next 10 years?

My money is on the ATP rule being significantly watered down and the mandatory retirement age increasing. I said in another post that balloon is about to be squeezed hard and changes will occur.

NTT5418

I was all in until he mentioned unions....

galaxy flyer

ECON 101, there is no shortages or overages, only a price. If the routes can generate enough revenue to justify paying crews a wage high enough to attract pilots, then pilots will be there and will get hired. If crew costs get too high and the route can't generate enough revenue, the route will disappear. Will wages be such that RJ pilots have vacation homes, boats and toys, probably not.

There have been many years where individual airlines hired 800-1000 pilots a year.

GF

soon2bfo

Yes I know there are other forums that are supposed to house other conversations (hangar talk) but nobody goes there. The regionals are where most pilots will be looking for their first job so I think it is appropriate to put this link here. Everybody considering flight school should watch this video.

The Great Airline Pilot Shortage Myth (Part I) - YouTube

Magpuller

You don't have to be an economist or a genius to understand where the industry is trending. The airline hub & spoke business model is failing as the reality of a "volatile economy" has become the norm vs. the exception. Regionals will shrink and fail as the remaining legacies will be forced to take back flying to cover their lift.

Fewer airframes, more seats per aircraft to fewer cities fewer times per day, period.

That's what is happening and it has to. The only way the legacies will survive is to go back to pre-90's operational models where the average passenger will once again have to wait out a 2 to 3 hour layover at a hub vs. the current average of 40 min connection times to outstations. And the regional shortage will dry up going forward a few more years. We will probably see about a 30% reduction in contract lift. The remaining surviving regional carriers will likely raise year one pay but will never substantially increase wages across the board and QOL will remain about the same. There will be more legacy jobs and continuous hiring but competition will remain high for those seats as wages and QOL at the legacies will continually diminish as they have trended for the last 30 years.

Ultimately, and this is my personal forecast, I believe that in 15 to 20 years, perhaps much sooner, there will no longer be a defined difference in wage or QOL between legacy and regional jobs. Air transport has become the mass transit mode of choice. As automation and technology become more and more prevailing in the cockpit the need for highly skilled pilots will decrease as public confidence in the automation increases. Though I don't think I will see pilot-less airliners in my lifetime. I think that the job definition of a pilot will drastically change and diminish. The pilot job of 25 to 30 years from now will be someone sitting at a single station in a completely automated flight-deck monitoring those systems and only intervening to correct software glitches. The yoke will be replaced by a keyboard which will be a rarely used "red guarded switch." And that job will probably be a minimum wage occupation someone with nothing but a HS diploma can get.