Pilot shortage (video)
05-26-2013, 01:57 PM
#1
Gets Weekends Off
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Joined APC: Jan 2011
Posts: 211
Pilot shortage (video)
The Great Airline Pilot Shortage Myth (Part I) - YouTube
Sorry if it's been posted before but someone took the time to make the videos and it seems worth sharing.
Sorry if it's been posted before but someone took the time to make the videos and it seems worth sharing.
05-26-2013, 05:29 PM
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Posts: 233
Well, I'm not so sure that was an entirely accurate analysis. While I agree that there is no impending doomsday pilot shortage, the author of the video seems to embrace a particularly dark conspiracy theory. It's more complicated, and maybe just a little bit less cynical than that.
Overall, the overiding factor affecting pilot wages is deregulation....it allows nearly anyone with a few millions to start an airline, at less than legacy wages, while undercutting longer established employee wages. Some might even argue that that's part of normal supply and demand....if you charge enough for your product that someone else can come along and produce it for less money....they will. In other words, as labor costs increase with longevity at one carrier, there is the possibility that a new competitor can attract labor for less. Of course, that's a gross over simplification too, but there is something to it....Peoples' Express, et al. When an airline succeeds and grows, it's infrastructure costs must also grow, and over time, even new entrants become the entrenched and more expensive operations. Ulitmately, unless we break this cycle, they too will sucumb to new entrant competion.
Make no mistake, deregulation was and is a disaster for labor....it has lowered real pilot wages and career expectations. It resulted in financial decimation of tens of thousands of pilots and their families who expected long careers at a major carrier. I wonder what the industry will look like 20 years from now...will Jet Blue and Virgin America be challenged with yet another new entrant?
Going forward, it should also be noted that regionals are moving toward 70 seat airplanes as 50 seaters are retired. 35 years ago, only a few hundred pilots were employed by regionals...now it's 18,000, but not likely to grow too much over this.
It is true that the pilot training pipeline has slowed, but the real question remains...how many more are really needed?
Overall, the overiding factor affecting pilot wages is deregulation....it allows nearly anyone with a few millions to start an airline, at less than legacy wages, while undercutting longer established employee wages. Some might even argue that that's part of normal supply and demand....if you charge enough for your product that someone else can come along and produce it for less money....they will. In other words, as labor costs increase with longevity at one carrier, there is the possibility that a new competitor can attract labor for less. Of course, that's a gross over simplification too, but there is something to it....Peoples' Express, et al. When an airline succeeds and grows, it's infrastructure costs must also grow, and over time, even new entrants become the entrenched and more expensive operations. Ulitmately, unless we break this cycle, they too will sucumb to new entrant competion.
Make no mistake, deregulation was and is a disaster for labor....it has lowered real pilot wages and career expectations. It resulted in financial decimation of tens of thousands of pilots and their families who expected long careers at a major carrier. I wonder what the industry will look like 20 years from now...will Jet Blue and Virgin America be challenged with yet another new entrant?
Going forward, it should also be noted that regionals are moving toward 70 seat airplanes as 50 seaters are retired. 35 years ago, only a few hundred pilots were employed by regionals...now it's 18,000, but not likely to grow too much over this.
It is true that the pilot training pipeline has slowed, but the real question remains...how many more are really needed?
05-26-2013, 05:50 PM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 191
No pilot shortage, but there will be movement. Just normal movement, like other professions experience. He talks about the 70's and 90's as decades that were expecting mass retirements. If my memory serves me right, those were the best decades that we saw as pilots. 80's and 00's not so much, as there was little opportunity for movement.
05-27-2013, 04:36 AM
#7
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Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: Reclined
Posts: 2,168
The shortage will be at the regionals; not the legacies. Places like republic are already defaulting on contracts dye to lack of crews. Their Q400 operation for United is a failure and at least one EAS community is suing Republic for breach of contract.
The only way regionals can mitigate the shortage is to go to larger airframes and fewer frequency to slightly reduce demand. The massive push at all levels to go to OBS us also a move to mitigate the shortage.
Has deregulation had an impact; absolutely. But the problem isn't deregulation of the airlines... The problem is they deregulated the airlines but not the labor groups which created a false imbalance.
The RLA and the fact that our own unions in all these years never firmed one list is what kills us. It allows management to pit one group against another. If it were like the steel workers union we'd have one list, one contract regardless if who you worked for. The cost if labor then becomes fixed and constant across all carriers. Forcing them to find their savings elsewhere than our wallets.
Want to blame somebody? Blame our unions. 35 years since deregulation and they still have us seperate fighting eachother under the RLA.
The only way regionals can mitigate the shortage is to go to larger airframes and fewer frequency to slightly reduce demand. The massive push at all levels to go to OBS us also a move to mitigate the shortage.
Has deregulation had an impact; absolutely. But the problem isn't deregulation of the airlines... The problem is they deregulated the airlines but not the labor groups which created a false imbalance.
The RLA and the fact that our own unions in all these years never firmed one list is what kills us. It allows management to pit one group against another. If it were like the steel workers union we'd have one list, one contract regardless if who you worked for. The cost if labor then becomes fixed and constant across all carriers. Forcing them to find their savings elsewhere than our wallets.
Want to blame somebody? Blame our unions. 35 years since deregulation and they still have us seperate fighting eachother under the RLA.
05-27-2013, 05:49 AM
#9
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Joined APC: Sep 2010
Posts: 47
All the planets must align first before a shortage, legacies will shrink and regionals will be having plenty of pilots to choose from. With impending mergers and flight management consolidation is impossible for a shortage, look the rest of the world...just IMHO. That is why I see kids dreaming of flying and I tell them are u willing to give up dreams.....
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