Why do you think this is?

 

$$$$$. It's affordable for the affluent, but those aren't the many. It's likely a bucket list trip for lower middle class in this country. Especially after watching every episode of Hawaii Five-Oh reboot.

 

Exactly. And the accessibility of Hawaii is changing.

 

And so are hotel prices, if you follow the economic trail. And I don't mean they're going down.

 

None of us are financial wizards, but I think HA will be ok. Sure we’ll lose a little west coast and interisland traffic. But until you see DL, AA, UA, B6, KE, JL, etc. flight numbers on WN interisland flights, we’ll continue to fly the bulk of the load. There is a reason that the other legacies have never flown interisland, the margins just aren’t worth it. It’s not that you can’t make a profit, but dedicating the iron to a lower margin route is not a good business practice. Our west coast fares are almost never the cheapest, far from it. But people continue to fly with us, so there must be something to our cabin service that people like. It certainly isn’t my award winning PAs.

 

The problem with that thought is that SWA is going to fly a significant portion of your customer base to HI, and then send them inter island, and many of the other legacies just fly straight to Lihue or wherever these days rather than needing a one hopper from HNL. And supposing I took x airline to Lihue or wherever and wanted a Maui excursion I’m probably just fine with taking a cheap SWA flight instead of HAL even if they butcher the local dialect and don’t serve POG.

You’re still going to have feed from others, but this is a slim profit margin industry to begin with. I’m not hoping you fail, but this isn’t some regional joining the fray. It’s the largest domestic carrier in the US. If HAL is fine then I think it will be because they altered their model significantly, partnered up or something else that’s not readily apparent. It won’t be because the cabin service with attractive Hawaiians is so nice.

 

Have you ever been to Hawaii? Try look for a hotel for under $200 a night, guarantee it will be the best Western or airport hotel two blocks from the airport. You can have cheap accessibility but not cheap stay.

Side note. Everyone is worried about HA, how about the rest of the competition that Flys to Hawaii. Alaska, the big 3?

 

Have you looked at SWA's anticipated flight schedule? They are going to be doing the exact same service as every other airline coming from the West Coast. OAK-HNL,OGG, KOA, LIH.. same with their other West Coast cities.. The exact same flying as AK, UA, AA, DL, HA... They haven't discovered some secret formula to doing Hawaii flights..

And if you take a real look at SWA tix prices, they are not cheaper than other airlines on many routes. It's all based on what day, time etc. I've found many OAK-HNL tix that are $100 more on SWA. Same with interisland. Picked a day at the end of April.. HA $80, SWA $179 OGG -HNL one way. SWA being the lowest cost is a myth based on good marketing. They are offering introductory fares, nothing new here or unexpected.

If anything the only airline that utilizes long haul to Inter-Island connected flying is Hawaiian... You forget about our extensive network to the East.. Japan, Australia, S.Pacific, NZ, S.Korea...And if and when the JAL JV goes through that may be set to increase even more. Also we codeshare with many carriers especially interisland. Off the top of my head I've watched my Inter Island flights advertise as DL, Korean Air , JAL, and UA. Think you're ever gonna see a plane full of Japanese passengers board a SWA flight?

What SWA is gonna do is compete with every carrier from the West Coast and compete with Hawaiian (and codeshares with Korean, JAL, UA, DL etc) on interisland. The only passengers SWA is gonna serve on their interisland, are locals shopping for fares. If the cheaper ticket for a particular time is on Hawaiian, they will go with Hawaiian and vice versa. Initially SWA will get some connecting SWA passengers, but once their non-stops are up and running, it will cannibalize some of their inter island traffic.. Same thing happened when HA started doing more outer island-west coast flying.

Then there is the elephant in the room.. Gate space.

 

No kidding... crew rate for the BestW. or HNL airport hotel is in the $150 range.. not cheap.

Grand Wailea is typically $500+ a night for a standard room. Same with every other hotel in Kihei or Kaanapali... VRBO's are the only way someone that needs a $100 RT tix to get to Hawaii or not go, will be able to afford a Hawaii trip. Most VRBO's in Kihei are in the $150/night range.. and that's Mauka side of S.Kihei Rd.. Something on the water will be $200+.

The SWA love fest would be more plausible if every single ticket was $100RT.. but we all know that is not the case.

What I foresee happening is AK pulling back some of their flights to Hawaii. Which will keep available seats to the Islands somewhat in check. Hawaiian will benefit from the other Legacy carriers disdain for SWA.

 

Interesting no one mentions baggage fees when comparing fares...