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Old 10-18-2017, 04:19 PM
  #111  
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Originally Posted by jtrain609 View Post
What were your projection assumptions?

My spreadsheet looks pretty much the same for determining future seniority progression, but it'll ramp at some point when the CBA is signed and vacation allocation and additional reserves are added (that's where I see staffing going from 14.5 to 17 pilots per airframe).
No assumptions, this is just the actual number of pilots on the seniority list for corresponding month/years. The orange linear trend line is calculated by the data points.
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Old 10-18-2017, 04:26 PM
  #112  
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206 View Post
No assumptions, this is just the actual number of pilots on the seniority list for corresponding month/years. The orange linear trend line is calculated by the data points.
Even better.

I've got the same thing setup with a formula to predict seniority list growth and I'm filling it in as time goes on to see if my predictions are correct. The graph matches your data.
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Old 10-18-2017, 04:53 PM
  #113  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver View Post
I DIDN'T say not hiring. I said it had slowed, and then added slowed more than normal. Which correlates with Management's announcement earlier this year of slowing growth rate and less attrition than planned/less hiring required.

I'm not sure why you disagree with any of that. I didn't say NOT hiring.
Don't ya just hate it when guys spin what you say
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Old 10-18-2017, 06:03 PM
  #114  
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How about pay rates? Is there a minimum first year pay the union is fighting for? I'm not greedy but i'd have to be honest, my wife and I would have a hard time paying the bills with the paycut I would have to take. I'm only a second year regional captain but it would be roughly a $33/hr cut.
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Old 10-18-2017, 06:18 PM
  #115  
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Originally Posted by pilotpayne View Post
Don't ya just hate it when guys spin what you say
Who doesn't...
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Old 10-18-2017, 09:29 PM
  #116  
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Originally Posted by Ground Effect View Post
How about pay rates? Is there a minimum first year pay the union is fighting for? I'm not greedy but i'd have to be honest, my wife and I would have a hard time paying the bills with the paycut I would have to take. I'm only a second year regional captain but it would be roughly a $33/hr cut.
well, we are calling for an industry standard contract. we are at $53 right now, i guess. here are our peers (apc data):

hawaiian: $36
alaska: $57
southwest: $79
united: $85
delta: $86
american: $86

so i'd guess we are shooting for being more "standard" than we are now, which to me, would be closer to that top 3 than the bottom 2.

just a guess, because of course the union is not telling us the numbers they have in mind. eventually we will vote, and as in all airline votes from time immemorial, there are very few first year guys voting. hopefully we will be taking care of them too.
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Old 10-19-2017, 02:29 AM
  #117  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver View Post
I DIDN'T say not hiring. I said it had slowed, and then added slowed more than normal. Which correlates with Management's announcement earlier this year of slowing growth rate and less attrition than planned/less hiring required.

I'm not sure why you disagree with any of that. I didn't say NOT hiring.
Exactly. You said slowed. I never said you said not hiring.

I’m saying that happens every year. It’s normal.

How many guys are we arguing about here? 15? 20? 50?

Potatoe Potatoe....
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Old 10-19-2017, 03:31 AM
  #118  
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206 View Post
Numbers:

What’s interesting about this chart isn’t the trend line. It’s all the other stuff that you can look at when you scroll down!
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Old 10-19-2017, 05:16 AM
  #119  
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Originally Posted by Ground Effect View Post
How about pay rates? Is there a minimum first year pay the union is fighting for? I'm not greedy but i'd have to be honest, my wife and I would have a hard time paying the bills with the paycut I would have to take. I'm only a second year regional captain but it would be roughly a $33/hr cut.
First, most of us took pay cuts to come to a major. I took 6 figures coming from biz Av. Second, you don’t look at first year pay, you look at last year pay. A buddy of mine didn’t take the interview seriously and didn’t get the job. He was making 90k as a Lear captain. He is still making 90k, he’d be making 175k right now had he taken that interview seriously.

The First year guys will be taken care of in the CBA.
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Old 10-19-2017, 05:58 AM
  #120  
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Originally Posted by dontsurf View Post
well, we are calling for an industry standard contract. we are at $53 right now, i guess. here are our peers (apc data):

hawaiian: $36
alaska: $57
southwest: $79
united: $85
delta: $86
american: $86

so i'd guess we are shooting for being more "standard" than we are now, which to me, would be closer to that top 3 than the bottom 2.

just a guess, because of course the union is not telling us the numbers they have in mind. eventually we will vote, and as in all airline votes from time immemorial, there are very few first year guys voting. hopefully we will be taking care of them too.
Dont forget, MD-88 capt at DAL is 6 months. That pay is $227/hr within the first year.
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