John Carr

I wouldn't say the XJT CPP is a "good" reason to go to XJT. Your other reasons are, but one can get those at (insert almost any regional here). The XJT CPP has proven to be a mediocre (at best) program with so-so results.

The pilots in the Dec 5 class from the XJT CPP have hire dates at XJT in the late 2000 range. The Commutair CPPs in the Dec new hire class at UAL are a 2012 hire. Think about that for a sec.

A 2005 hire in the XJT CPP pool will take till next summer AT THE SOONEST to get to UAL. A late 2005 hire needs ~ 375 new spots at UAL before they go. NOT ALL XJT pilots have interviewed for the CPP, which means they can come in on top of pilots junior that have. A 2011 hire will take about 6-700 more new hires at UAL before seeing a class date. Pilots that were unsuccessful last summer are getting their second chance. Per the EXISTING agreement, they also come in on top of those below them for class.

Now, the "wildcard" to that last sentence is if/when/how the L-ASA CRJ pilots get mixed into the XJT CPP program.

What I'm getting at is, someone hired TODAY at XJT would take years to get to UAL, assuming the program even continues to exist.

Commutair or AWAC may have a much faster "path" to UAL going strictly on the CPP program.

The CRJ side received the news that DAL will be done with them.

The ERJ side WAS losing flying to the tune of ~5 planes per month with NO PLAN for XJT ERJ's to exist after 2018.

A few months ago, UAL signed a new 5 year CPA with XJT for the ERJ's to STOP ERJ transfer to C5, TSA, or whomever and possibly grow the ERJ fleet at XJT.

PontiusPilot

Nope... definitely not a recruiter. I regret coming off that way, though. I'll be the first to admit it's not rainbows and unicorns at XJT. The seniority list is top-heavy and upgrades, though trending in the right direction, are still incredibly long by today's standards. Compensation needs to catch up. The new hire bonus is weak. Ownership by Inc. is a huge hindrance to gaining new flying.


Just due to the reality of the industry today, however, a new hire will likely have a very different career trajectory than one hired 10-12 years ago. Therefore, I'm admittedly a bit more optimistic about the CPP.

Barring a cataclysmic event, United hiring should continue at a steady pace well into the future. (Remains to be seen.) Even if we factor relatively reasonable hiring estimates at United of 600 per year, that's still 150 per year from the XJT CPP. There's less than 300 in the pool today.

There are other factors to consider.
-There have been more than 100 opt outs.
-Hogan pass rate... I estimate it at 80%. That's mostly a guess based on anecdotal information and unofficial surveys. Interested to hear what your estimate is.
-Of those, I'm not sure what the interview pass rate likely is. Maybe 65%? Mostly a wild guess. I'd expect it to be lower than UA off the street interviews. Also interested to hear what you think.
-Employment leave has been extended to 180 days. Many people on the seniority list are already gone, and can't be factored into CPP progression.
-The program all but requires a 4 year degree, which disqualifies quite a few people.
-People are dropping like flies from the ASA side. I can't say I blame them. I'd be surprised if more than 300-400 actually stick around and transition to the ERJ side, which lessens their potential effect on the CPP pool.

The people leaving through the CPP now have been at XJT a hell of a long time, no doubt. But the factors I mentioned above, as well as a relatively thin hiring in recent years means that it'll be a couple of years before the "25%" language of the CPP starts showing its real strength.

I agree that the CPP just isn't going to be as big of a draw as a straight flow, but I don't see United ever doing that. It's a feast or famine kind of pathway. It's worthless for some, but for those who are successful, it can potentially move a lot faster than expected.

All that said, I just can't give the blanket statement that people shouldn't come to XJT. Yes, there are great options out there. However, if one lives in base and has a strong interest in the JetBlue gateway and/or UA, they could do a lot worse.

You never know. It was only a few years ago when Pinnacle and American Eagle were stagnant. If/when change happens, it can happen quickly. I hope it does.

John Carr

NEVER assumed such, just simply disagreed with your advice on going on going to XJT on the point of the CPP.

True, but when myself and many others and maybe you got our first jobs before 9/11, we had a much different career expectation/"trajectory" than what the dark decade gave us. You NEVER KNOW.....

I believe that NOW it's up to that rate. The first year-ish (maybe a little longer) had about a 50% pass rate.

It's not what I think, it's what I know.

End of summer it was UP TO about 50% pass at the interview. Up from about 20% summer prior.

True. I know a few last fall that beat the CPP by getting an off the street. Also know those that were accepted and waiting and took employment elsewhere.

Well, sort of. I know 3 that got in without it, and a few more going without it. It's at UAL's discretion. As well as many times has no rhyme or reason why some don't have to get it and some are being told to get it to be considered.

Remains to be seen.

Agreed. I NEVER SAID people SHOULDN'T go to XJT, I just said that the CPP shouldn't really be a factor based on what I know as well the FACT that UAL is very nondescript/subjective as they've been to date.

It's "better" now, but about the first year UAL really mismanaged it and turned down A LOT of good people that SHOULD have got in. Combined with what can be a lengthy wait, etc etc etc.

People could go to other carrier that offer a quicker upgrade and more opportunities to check boxes off on apps. Quicker upgrade, quicker chance to become and LCA, move into a volunteer/safety position, what have you.

PontiusPilot

I mistakenly replied to you about the recruiter accusation, as well as the point about not coming to ExpressJet. Turns out that was meant for a post before yours. My apologies.

I agree on most of your points. I also know of a few people in the CPP who ended up leaving for SWA, JetBlue, and others. The decimated early interviewees and tiny hiring numbers at UA in 2017 definitely took the wind out of the sails of the XJT CPP before things ever really got going. I'm optimistic that things are about to change.

I don't necessarily think that the CPP alone is a great reason to come to XJT. It's something that can work out for some, and won't for others. My original point is that it's a consideration if someone is actually making the Cape Air vs XJT decision.

SmitteyB

**NOMINATION**
2017 POST OF THE YEAR

I don’t know a sane person who would go to XJT at this point.

Go to any other regional and apply at JB a when you meet the mins.

BeatNavy

Just to clarify, JetBlue has the same mins as regionals, unless you are referring to competitive mins.

atrdriver

And that isn't where some similarities end.

PasserOGas

Wow. This industry is disgusting.

I think of all my military friends, some at regionals with years of training and experience (also maturity) that aren't getting called, while some kid who lives in his moms basement gets a job because he worked for the right bottom feeding regional for 5 years.

John Carr

True, a sad sad reality that's panned out.

Lots of people getting hired at (insert good/great job here) with next to nothing for life and career experience.

BEFORE somebody losses their fecal matter, I'm NOT referencing the individual(s) mentioned from C5. Who knows? They could be a once/twice whatever furloughed recycled pilot or a mil guy that got hired there and was just waiting it out, etc.

But EVERY TIME I see a pilot that doesn't look a day over 25 walking around in a (insert good/great job) uniform while there's tons of military/civ guys that sucked up the dark decade, that's what I think.

It's all nothing but a "sign of the times" as they say.....

hyperboy

At 25 I was already a Veteran. How do Veterans look?