Yep, it is really that simple.

 

If you want to believe a CEO have at it. Maybe I am jaded but I have certainly watched our CEOs directly lie to us. One said he was so sick he couldn’t keep on keeping on oh wait look a job at Airbus oh never mind I go better.

As I said I just think it’s interesting that pilots come on here KNOWING what will happen. None of us know we are all just guessing. Maybe Kirby is being honest that’s definitely a possibility.

But If that guy/girl is a super senior WB captain it’s amazing to me he believes any CEO. Especially given what has happened in his or her career.

Did you see what’s happening at spirit? Did you know their CEO said ehhhhh we are financially fine. Apparently not.

As others have said we just don’t want to be out of a job. If our current leadership turned it around and they just might be I think everyone would be like great. It’s not a want to fly for United it’s a want to not be spirit right now.

 

I totally get it. I was at NK and saw first hand how Ted would say one thing and do another. I’m not saying every CEO is honest. I’m just saying Kirby has been honest thus far.

Personally, IF a merger was going to happen under Kirby, it would happen in the mid-2030s after United Next is settled and all the planes from Boeing are on property. Watched interviews with Kirby and this seems the most plausible (imo, could totally be wrong).

 

Has Kirby announced that he will still be the CEO a decade from now?

 

He did publicly say that he plans to retire at UA so who knows

 

The mid 2030s are an eternity from now...especially in the airline business. Think of where things were 10 years ago now, 2015. Every few years the deck will be reshuffled unless of course you think the deck has been whittled down via bankruptcies and mergers to the final "too big to fail" pieces.

 

This is my thinking. Sure the remaining players will come and go but the top 4 will control 75% market share for the long term. Yes UA might leapfrog DL and the ranking will change among UA/DL/AA/WN but in 10 yrs it will still be these same carriers at the top.

 

Yeah, it’s a long time, no doubt. I know I said mid 2030s, but it’s crazy to think about the beginning of the next decade is in 4 years. Still quite of bit of time, but it’s certainly knocking on our doors.

Interestingly enough, I didn’t believe in the “too big to fail” until recently. The big 4 rn won’t be going anywhere, just that they’ll leapfrog each other in metrics.

I think the smaller players will be kept around, but consolidation will happen at that level.

Only time will tell

 

Further consolidation is about the only thing we can bet on honestly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like an AS/AA merger in 5 years, maybe not that exact merger though.

 

Spirit was the highest profit margin airline in the US five years ago.
This industry is bananas.