Just think about the rumors that B6/NK part 2 are swirling.

 

Oh yeah! Wall Street loves it! Oh wait

 

Estimates are SEC mandated informed guesses based on specific data. Beating estimates is better than not beating them, but if the estimates and results are negative quarter after quarter, year after year, that's not good. Especially big negative numbers, if you're almost breaking even you can muddle along with financing as needed until the board/shareholders get sick of it and fire the execs.

Industry financial analysts do seem to think B6 will get close to breaking even in 2027, so I wouldn't call it a death spiral at this point (maybe runup to M&A).

 

Jetforward starting to appear to be a strategy to shorten the loss gap, rather than a solid way to achieve profitability. Granted, it’s been almost two years and there have been changes. I think I’d rather have an airline that hit the market heavy as we once did with 1 hour turns and running the airplanes as much as we can, because at the end of the day, a disruption or external factors occur and we still find a scapegoat for our shortcomings.

In this timeframe, mgmt has had so many contradictions on needing capacity and then saying we need to be selective. While touting 35% in FLL while system wide we are at .9% capacity increase. Taking from Peter to pay Paul.

 

The call was more upbeat than expected but I still have so many questions. One thing that stood out is the fact that we're still sticking to the 2030/2031 timeline for our next A321 delivery, yet MSG at one point said it would be nice if we had more lift capacity during peak, and that domestic mint does great but we clearly reach a plateau to what we can do due to limited number of airplanes. I know we didn't want the XLR due to potential issues and the fact we'd only have 2 of them, but I don't get why normal 321 NEO's with mint weren't looked at. The entire call revolved around premium products and how premium is what's driving the market, how our lack of premium first is what's holding us back yet we're still not taking any 321's for almost 5 years? Again, I'm just a dumb pilot but I'd love to know the reasoning behind that.

 

The point of my post was “what did you expect”? There’s almost a sense of surprise that we lost money. EVERYONE from the company to Wall Street said we were going to lose money. Wait for it……….. we lost money.

 

The earnings call read about as well as a JG email, regergitating everything we mentioned at the begining of the year while playing the "we'll get em next year" card.



Capex decline over 5 years with "plans" to grow. That means we are not growing (at least not enough to compete).

We maybe get 4 AOG back in service and we'll only have about 60 aircraft with first class installed by EO2026 and 50% by EO27 (speculating on 2027)

Another round of raising capital (not as big as the last round) will be required expecially with maturity of some debt in April26

Adding flights back to FLL that they took away (winning). Spirit dropping out of international gates helps with some expansion there.

Expecting to break even or be profitable in 2026 (caller mentioned this in Q&A as dejavu from last year)


Summed up as "we have no good news but we sure hope you are gullible enough to think we'll have some next quarter"

 

No network = no future. No new aircraft = no expansion. Don’t give me the 220 expansion argument. Adding additional seats into a saturated market is bullsheet. Adding a few first class seats will not save Jetblue. The future plan for jetblue is simply to lose less money. Their entire forecast revenue is based on drop shipping customers on United. You simply can’t survive flying solely New York to Florida.

 

They deffered the aircraft deliveries to help get even again. I think its the balance of cost of new airplanes, more crew, etc being greater than the output those aircraft would create. Once you defer aicraft orders its hard to get back to your spot in line. We're kind of cooked until 2030 since I don't know what airbus did with out deffered aicraft slots.

As stated in the earnings call, they made it very clear that their priorities in order are profitability then positive cash flow then de-levering. The path the company seems to be taking to profitability is by reduction of capital expenditures (deffered ac orders), reduction of operating expenditures (VILS, VESP, sh*tty pairings) and expanding premium offerings (domestic first, lounges, increased loyalty through BlueSky).

As a fellow dumb pilot, I hope that by 2030 these decision pay off but my bag of hope keeps getting smaller and smaller each quarter.

 

Largely agree with this. In the current industry it seems you need to be a full fledged member of a global alliance in order to survive long term. And even if we did manage to join one, that doesn't mean we can sit still flying NE-Florida for another decade.

I saw some analysis on a.net where it showed JB had a superior product in several transcon markets, but still struggled to get a fare premium compared to AA/DL/UA/AS. Frequent fliers and premium pax are already siloed into their alliances and unwilling to step out to try JB because they want the miles/status. I'm hopeful this BlueSky stuff helps a bit, but think it is a bandaid and we need a more comprehensive partnership with UA and Star broadly.